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Sportivo Belgrano v Sarmiento de La Banda

Sportivo Belgrano

1–1Full time

Sarmiento de La Banda

Torneo Federal A · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Oscar C. Boero

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 00:00

Sportivo Belgrano 1–1 Sarmiento de La Banda SPORTIVO BELGRANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sportivo Belgrano win~~49%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.758

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.737

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 55 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sportivo Belgrano win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sportivo Belgrano was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–30–20
32′26′ and it is 1–0: Sportivo Belgrano have scored. 1–0 · 81–15–4
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
33′26′ and it is 1–0: Sportivo Belgrano have scored. 1–0 · 81–15–4
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Sportivo Belgrano
45′HALF-TIME Sportivo Belgrano 1–0 Sarmiento de La Banda
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
46′SECOND HALF Sportivo Belgrano 1–0 Sarmiento de La Banda
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Sportivo Belgrano 1–1 Sarmiento de La Banda
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Sportivo Belgrano 1–1 Sarmiento de La Banda
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Sportivo Belgrano
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Sarmiento de La Banda
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Sarmiento de La Banda
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Sportivo Belgrano win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Sarmiento de La Banda
FTSportivo Belgrano 1–1 Sarmiento de La Banda · Sportivo Belgrano win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sportivo Belgrano win49%

Draw31%

Sarmiento de La Banda win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:30

VenueEstadio Oscar C. Boero

Line-ups

Sportivo Belgrano

Sarmiento de La Banda

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sportivo Belgrano

Sarmiento de La Banda

28Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Sportivo Belgrano	26	+1	35
30	Sarmiento de La Banda	24	−6	30

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sportivo Belgrano

Formation not confirmed

2 C. Beltran

9 G. Lesman

7 A. Lehmann

10 E. Franceschi

4 L. Ferreyra

6 G. Ferrero

8 S. Churchi

5 J. Caviglia

11 J. Bono

1 L. Martina

3 T. Pennesi

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. Carena

13 · J. Paiz

14 · F. Racca

15 · M. Gancedo

16 · J. Gimenez

17 · M. Forlin

18 · A. Pastorelli

19 · M. Sagristani

20 · E. Mercado

Sarmiento de La Banda

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Acuna

9 R. Bernal

4 C. Diaz

7 M. Diaz Cantoni

10 I. Garzon

6 G. Guzman

8 N. Juarez

2 C. Nunez

3 A. Ochoa

11 A. Tevez

5 M. Sanchez Arriola

Coach · –

Our number · sportivo belgrano winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

49% The market46%

Us49%

~~Market~~46%

We make Sportivo Belgrano a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sportivo belgrano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sportivo Belgrano win	49%	46%	+3
Draw	31%	31%	0
Sarmiento de La Banda win	20%	23%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	30%	35%	−5
Both teams to score	35%	41%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	57%	61%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	13%	17%	−4
Sportivo Belgrano or draw	80%	77%	+3
Sportivo Belgrano clean sheet	51%	–	–
Sarmiento de La Banda clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.9%

0123450 15.6 9.8 3.4 1 17.9 12.5 4.1 2 11.2 7.4 2.5 3 4.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sportivo Belgrano down, Sarmiento de La Banda across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,178 Torneo Federal A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.9% of games this season, across 472 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sportivo Belgrano at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sarmiento de La Banda away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Sportivo Belgrano, 0.67 for Sarmiento de La Banda. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SAR 3–0 SPO · SPO 4–1 SAR · SAR 0–0 SPO

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A

SPORTIVO BELGRANO

LLLWLL0–2 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–4

SARMIENTO DE LA BANDA

LWLLLL1–3 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Martin Formosa	26	+16	51
2	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	26	+14	50
3	Alvarado	26	+19	46
4	Douglas Haig	26	+12	43
5	Cipolletti	26	+11	43
6	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	29	+7	43
7	Sol de América	26	+3	43
8	Defensores de Belgrano VR	28	+5	41
9	Kimberley Mar del Plata	25	+9	40
10	Argentino Monte Maíz	25	+6	37
11	9 de Julio Rafaela	26	+4	37
12	Atenas	26	0	37
13	Fundacion Amigos	25	+6	36
14	Sportivo Las Parejas	26	+4	36
15	Sportivo Belgrano	26	+1	35
16	San Martín Mendoza	26	−3	35
17	Costa Brava	25	+3	34
18	Deportivo Rincon	26	+2	34
19	Villa Mitre	24	+7	33
20	Boca Unidos	24	+1	33
21	Atletico Escobar	26	−13	33
22	Defensores de Vilelas	25	−2	32
23	El Linqueño	26	−3	32
24	Gimnasia Concepción	26	+1	31
25	Juventud Unida Univ.	25	+1	31
26	Bartolomé Mitre	24	−1	31
27	Independiente De Chivilcoy	26	−4	31
28	Germinal de Rawson	25	−4	31
29	Juventud Antoniana	25	0	30
30	Sarmiento de La Banda	24	−6	30
31	Huracan Las Heras	25	−10	30
32	Guillermo Brown	25	−8	28
33	Circulo Deportivo	26	−9	25
34	Sol de Mayo	26	−11	25
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	24	−22	21
36	Tucuman Central	24	−18	19
37	Santamarina	25	−18	19