Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Torneo Federal A › Sarmiento de La Banda v Sportivo Belgrano

Back
Argentina flag

Sarmiento de La Banda v Sportivo Belgrano

Sarmiento de La Banda
0–0Full time
Sportivo Belgrano

Torneo Federal A · SUN 18 OCT · Stadio Ciudad de La Banda

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:00
Sarmiento de La Banda 0–0 Sportivo Belgrano SARMIENTO DE LA BANDA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sarmiento de La Banda win47%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.734
The market’s Brier score0.799

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sarmiento de La Banda win at 47%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Sarmiento de La Banda 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–32–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sarmiento de La Banda v Sportivo Belgrano
  4. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Sportivo Belgrano
  5. 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Sarmiento de La Banda win 38%)
  6. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Sarmiento de La Banda win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  7. 42′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–46–19
  8. 45′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Sarmiento de La Banda 0–0 Sportivo Belgrano
  10. 47′SECOND HALF Sarmiento de La Banda 0–0 Sportivo Belgrano
  11. 55′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
  12. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Sarmiento de La Banda win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
  13. 61′8 shots for Sarmiento de La Banda, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 26–59–14
  14. 64′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–13
  15. 72′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–71–11
  16. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Sarmiento de La Banda win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
  17. 77′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
  18. 82′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–5
  19. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Sarmiento de La Banda win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  20. 89′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
  21. FTFULL TIME Sarmiento de La Banda 0–0 Sportivo Belgrano
  22. FTSarmiento de La Banda 0–0 Sportivo Belgrano · Sarmiento de La Banda win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sarmiento de La Banda are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sarmiento de La Banda 47%, draw 32%, Sportivo Belgrano 22%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Sarmiento de La Banda v Sportivo BelgranoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sarmiento de La Banda win47%
Draw32%
Sportivo Belgrano win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 22:30

RoundRound of 32

VenueStadio Ciudad de La Banda

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sarmiento de La Banda

Sportivo Belgrano

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Torneo Federal A

Last match: 11 Oct · Torneo Federal A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Sportivo Belgrano18+1230
13Sarmiento de La Banda16+225

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sarmiento de la banda winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market52%
Us47%
Market52%

We make Sarmiento de La Banda a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sarmiento de La Banda v Sportivo Belgrano1.18 – 0.70
Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 17 AugW1 D1 L4 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 25 v 3013 v 3
The market · Sarmiento de La Banda win52% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 12 OCT 03:5918 OCT 22:05
Our probability · Sarmiento de La Banda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sarmiento de La Banda win47%52%−5
Draw32%30%+2
Sportivo Belgrano win22%19%+3
Over 2.5 goals29%37%−8
Both teams to score35%41%−6
Over 1.5 goals56%62%−6
Over 3.5 goals12%19%−7
Sarmiento de La Banda or draw78%81%−3
Sarmiento de La Banda clean sheet50%––
Sportivo Belgrano clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.5%
0123450 15.9 10.4 3.8 1 17.5 12.8 4.4 2 10.5 7.3 2.6 3 4.2 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sarmiento de La Banda down, Sportivo Belgrano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsSPO 1–1 SAR · SAR 3–0 SPO · SPO 4–1 SAR · SAR 0–0 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 17 Aug

SARMIENTO DE LA BANDA

WLLLLD3–0 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–1

SPORTIVO BELGRANO

LLWLLD0–2 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Olimpo Bahia Blanca16+931
2Douglas Haig18+731
3Sportivo Belgrano18+1230
4San Martin Formosa16+630
5Alvarado16+1227
6Gimnasia Chivilcoy18+527
7Defensores de Belgrano VR18+427
8Kimberley Mar del Plata16+626
9Bartolomé Mitre16+626
10Sol de América16+526
11Juventud Antoniana16+825
12Cipolletti16+425
13Sarmiento de La Banda16+225
149 de Julio Rafaela18+125
15Sportivo Las Parejas18−124
16Villa Mitre16+623
17Argentino Monte Maíz16+423
18Atenas16−123
19Huracan Las Heras16−223
20Atletico Escobar18−822
21Fundacion Amigos16+321
22Deportivo Rincon16−319
23San Martín Mendoza16−419
24Defensores de Vilelas16−519
25Independiente De Chivilcoy18−719
26El Linqueño18−719
27Costa Brava16−118
28Sol de Mayo16−318
29Boca Unidos16−618
30Germinal de Rawson16−718
31Juventud Unida Univ.16017
32Tucuman Central16−517
33Gimnasia Concepción18−617
34Guillermo Brown16−717
35Sarmiento Resistencia16−1115
36Santamarina16−813
37Circulo Deportivo16−813

The competition's standings before kick-off.