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Sarmiento de La Banda v Sportivo Belgrano
Sarmiento de La Banda
Sportivo BelgranoTorneo Federal A · SUN 18 OCT · Stadio Ciudad de La Banda
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Sarmiento de La Banda win at 47%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Sarmiento de La Banda 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–32–22
- 1′KICK-OFF Sarmiento de La Banda v Sportivo Belgrano
- 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Sportivo Belgrano
- 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Sarmiento de La Banda win 38%)
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Sarmiento de La Banda win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
- 42′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–46–19
- 45′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
- 45′HALF-TIME Sarmiento de La Banda 0–0 Sportivo Belgrano
- 47′SECOND HALF Sarmiento de La Banda 0–0 Sportivo Belgrano
- 55′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Sarmiento de La Banda win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
- 61′8 shots for Sarmiento de La Banda, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 26–59–14
- 64′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–13
- 72′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–71–11
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Sarmiento de La Banda win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
- 77′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
- 82′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–5
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Sarmiento de La Banda win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
- 89′We said Sarmiento de La Banda at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
- FTFULL TIME Sarmiento de La Banda 0–0 Sportivo Belgrano
- FTSarmiento de La Banda 0–0 Sportivo Belgrano · Sarmiento de La Banda win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Sarmiento de La Banda are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Sarmiento de La Banda 47%, draw 32%, Sportivo Belgrano 22%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 35%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Sarmiento de La Banda win47%
Sportivo Belgrano win22%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 22:30
RoundRound of 32
VenueStadio Ciudad de La Banda
Match timeline
All events
Sarmiento de La BandaMIN
Sportivo BelgranoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Sarmiento de La Banda
Sportivo Belgrano
Last match: 11 Oct · Torneo Federal A
Last match: 11 Oct · Torneo Federal A
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Sarmiento de La Banda a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento de La Banda win | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | +2 |
| Sportivo Belgrano win | 22% | 19% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 37% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | 35% | 41% | −6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56% | 62% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 19% | −7 |
| Sarmiento de La Banda or draw | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Sarmiento de La Banda clean sheet | 50% | – | – |
| Sportivo Belgrano clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2024Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 17 Aug
SARMIENTO DE LA BANDA
SPORTIVO BELGRANO
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 | Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 | San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 | Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 | Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | −1 | 24 |
| 16 | Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 | Atenas | 16 | −1 | 23 |
| 19 | Huracan Las Heras | 16 | −2 | 23 |
| 20 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | −8 | 22 |
| 21 | Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 | Deportivo Rincon | 16 | −3 | 19 |
| 23 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | −4 | 19 |
| 24 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | −5 | 19 |
| 25 | Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | −7 | 19 |
| 26 | El Linqueño | 18 | −7 | 19 |
| 27 | Costa Brava | 16 | −1 | 18 |
| 28 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | −3 | 18 |
| 29 | Boca Unidos | 16 | −6 | 18 |
| 30 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | −7 | 18 |
| 31 | Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 | Tucuman Central | 16 | −5 | 17 |
| 33 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | −6 | 17 |
| 34 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | −7 | 17 |
| 35 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | −11 | 15 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | −8 | 13 |
| 37 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | −8 | 13 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Douglas Haig
San Martin Formosa
Alvarado
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Defensores de Belgrano VR
Kimberley Mar del Plata
Bartolomé Mitre
Sol de América
Juventud Antoniana
Cipolletti
9 de Julio Rafaela
Sportivo Las Parejas
Villa Mitre
Argentino Monte Maíz
Atenas
Huracan Las Heras
Atletico Escobar
Fundacion Amigos
Deportivo Rincon
San Martín Mendoza
Defensores de Vilelas
Independiente De Chivilcoy
El Linqueño
Costa Brava
Sol de Mayo
Boca Unidos
Germinal de Rawson
Juventud Unida Univ.
Tucuman Central
Gimnasia Concepción
Guillermo Brown
Sarmiento Resistencia
Santamarina
Circulo Deportivo