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Sarmiento de La Banda v Atenas

Sarmiento de La Banda

19:00Upcoming

Atenas

Torneo Federal A · SUN 25 OCT · Stadio Ciudad de La Banda

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sarmiento de La BandaDrawAtenas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sarmiento de La Banda 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sarmiento de La Banda are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sarmiento de La Banda 46%, draw 31%, Atenas 23%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Sarmiento de La Banda v AtenasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Sarmiento de La Banda win46%

Draw31%

Atenas win23%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 19:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueStadio Ciudad de La Banda

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sarmiento de La Banda

Atenas

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Torneo Federal A

Last match: 17 Oct · Torneo Federal A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Sarmiento de La Banda	16	+2	25
18	Atenas	16	−1	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sarmiento de la banda winFirst published 19 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Sarmiento de La Banda a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sarmiento de La Banda v Atenas~~1.20 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 25 v 23~~13 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarmiento de La Banda win	46%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Atenas win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Sarmiento de La Banda or draw	77%	–	–
Sarmiento de La Banda clean sheet	48%	–	–
Atenas clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.7%

0123450 14.9 10.2 4.0 1 16.7 13.0 4.7 2 10.3 7.5 2.8 3 4.2 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarmiento de La Banda down, Atenas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,204 Torneo Federal A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.7% of games this season, across 498 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sarmiento de La Banda at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Atenas away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Sarmiento de La Banda, 0.74 for Atenas. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SAR 0–1 ATE · ATE 1–0 SAR · ATE 0–1 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 30 Aug

SARMIENTO DE LA BANDA

LLLLDD0–1 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

ATENAS

WLLDLW3–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	16	+9	31
2	Douglas Haig	18	+7	31
3	Sportivo Belgrano	18	+12	30
4	San Martin Formosa	16	+6	30
5	Alvarado	16	+12	27
6	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	18	+5	27
7	Defensores de Belgrano VR	18	+4	27
8	Kimberley Mar del Plata	16	+6	26
9	Bartolomé Mitre	16	+6	26
10	Sol de América	16	+5	26
11	Juventud Antoniana	16	+8	25
12	Cipolletti	16	+4	25
13	Sarmiento de La Banda	16	+2	25
14	9 de Julio Rafaela	18	+1	25
15	Sportivo Las Parejas	18	−1	24
16	Villa Mitre	16	+6	23
17	Argentino Monte Maíz	16	+4	23
18	Atenas	16	−1	23
19	Huracan Las Heras	16	−2	23
20	Atletico Escobar	18	−8	22
21	Fundacion Amigos	16	+3	21
22	Deportivo Rincon	16	−3	19
23	San Martín Mendoza	16	−4	19
24	Defensores de Vilelas	16	−5	19
25	Independiente De Chivilcoy	18	−7	19
26	El Linqueño	18	−7	19
27	Costa Brava	16	−1	18
28	Sol de Mayo	16	−3	18
29	Boca Unidos	16	−6	18
30	Germinal de Rawson	16	−7	18
31	Juventud Unida Univ.	16	0	17
32	Tucuman Central	16	−5	17
33	Gimnasia Concepción	18	−6	17
34	Guillermo Brown	16	−7	17
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	16	−11	15
36	Santamarina	16	−8	13
37	Circulo Deportivo	16	−8	13