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San Martín Mendoza v Argentino Monte Maíz

San Martín Mendoza

0–2Full time

Argentino Monte Maíz

Torneo Federal A · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio General Jose de San Martin

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 04:03

San Martín Mendoza 0–2 Argentino Monte Maíz SAN MARTÍN MENDOZA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said San Martín Mendoza win~~40%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.803

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.002

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said San Martín Mendoza win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: San Martín Mendoza 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–32–27
1′KICK-OFF San Martín Mendoza v Argentino Monte Maíz
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Argentino Monte Maíz
12′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Argentino Monte Maíz
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' San Martín Mendoza 0–1 Argentino Monte Maíz
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' San Martín Mendoza 0–1 Argentino Monte Maíz
45′HALF-TIME San Martín Mendoza 0–1 Argentino Monte Maíz
46′SECOND HALF San Martín Mendoza 0–1 Argentino Monte Maíz
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' San Martín Mendoza 0–2 Argentino Monte Maíz · ulises perrig
64′⚽ GOAL · 62' San Martín Mendoza 0–2 Argentino Monte Maíz
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' San Martín Mendoza
FTFULL TIME San Martín Mendoza 0–2 Argentino Monte Maíz
FTSan Martín Mendoza 0–2 Argentino Monte Maíz · San Martín Mendoza win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

San Martín Mendoza win40%

Draw33%

Argentino Monte Maíz win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 01:30

Venue · Estadio General Jose de San Martin

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

San Martín Mendoza

Formation not confirmed

1 L. G. Rodriguez

10 D. Arce

8 E. Batistella

5 J. Zanon

7 F. Saucedo

9 F. Rivarola

4 V. Mercado

11 J. Mazzolo

6 M. Maidana

2 M. Contreras

3 M. Zapata

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · N. Rosa

13 · P. Velazquez

14 · N. Bernabe

15 · V. Caro

16 · P. Coria

17 · J. Almeida

18 · J. Leon

19 · I. Paz

20 · R. Ferro

Argentino Monte Maíz

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Bonet

2 I. Amaya

10 I. Blangetti

3 P. Hourdebaigt

5 L. Lopez

4 U. Perrig

6 F. Rassol

11 G. Sarmiento

9 J. Tejada

8 D. Zona

7 J. Tomadoni

Coach · Carlos Mazzola

Substitutes

12 · A. Bovo

13 · B. Priotto

14 · E. Coronas

15 · D. Lukievicz

16 · R. Lasserre

17 · S. Landi

18 · M. Romero

19 · L. Rainero

20 · S. Gonzalez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

San Martín Mendoza

Formation not confirmed

1 L. G. Rodriguez

10 D. Arce

8 E. Batistella

5 J. Zanon

7 F. Saucedo

9 F. Rivarola

4 V. Mercado

11 J. Mazzolo

6 M. Maidana

2 M. Contreras

3 M. Zapata

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · N. Rosa

13 · P. Velazquez

14 · N. Bernabe

15 · V. Caro

16 · P. Coria

17 · J. Almeida

18 · J. Leon

19 · I. Paz

20 · R. Ferro

Argentino Monte Maíz

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Bonet

2 I. Amaya

10 I. Blangetti

3 P. Hourdebaigt

5 L. Lopez

4 U. Perrig

6 F. Rassol

11 G. Sarmiento

9 J. Tejada

8 D. Zona

7 J. Tomadoni

Coach · Carlos Mazzola

Substitutes

12 · A. Bovo

13 · B. Priotto

14 · E. Coronas

15 · D. Lukievicz

16 · R. Lasserre

17 · S. Landi

18 · M. Romero

19 · L. Rainero

20 · S. Gonzalez

Our number · san martín mendoza winPublished 10 Oct 01:30

40% The market51%

Us40%

~~Market~~51%

We make San Martín Mendoza a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · san martín mendoza win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Martín Mendoza win	40%	51%	−10
Draw	33%	30%	+2
Argentino Monte Maíz win	27%	19%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	29%	34%	−5
Both teams to score	36%	37%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	56%	59%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	12%	15%	−3
San Martín Mendoza or draw	73%	81%	−8
San Martín Mendoza clean sheet	45%	–	–
Argentino Monte Maíz clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.1%

0123450 16.1 12.1 5.1 1 15.9 13.4 5.3 2 8.7 6.9 2.8 3 3.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Martín Mendoza down, Argentino Monte Maíz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,174 Torneo Federal A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.0% of games this season, across 468 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.90 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Martín Mendoza at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Argentino Monte Maíz away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for San Martín Mendoza, 0.81 for Argentino Monte Maíz. Most likely score 0–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 01:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–1 ARG · ARG 4–1 SAN · SAN 1–1 ARG · ARG 0–1 SAN

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A

SAN MARTÍN MENDOZA

WDLDWD1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

ARGENTINO MONTE MAÍZ

LDDWWW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Martin Formosa	26	+16	51
2	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	26	+14	50
3	Alvarado	26	+19	46
4	Douglas Haig	26	+12	43
5	Cipolletti	26	+11	43
6	Sol de América	26	+3	43
7	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	28	+7	42
8	Defensores de Belgrano VR	28	+5	41
9	Kimberley Mar del Plata	24	+8	37
10	9 de Julio Rafaela	26	+4	37
11	Atenas	26	0	37
12	Fundacion Amigos	25	+6	36
13	Sportivo Las Parejas	26	+4	36
14	Sportivo Belgrano	26	+1	35
15	San Martín Mendoza	25	−1	35
16	Argentino Monte Maíz	24	+4	34
17	Deportivo Rincon	25	+3	34
18	Costa Brava	25	+3	34
19	Villa Mitre	24	+7	33
20	Boca Unidos	24	+1	33
21	Atletico Escobar	26	−13	33
22	El Linqueño	26	−3	32
23	Gimnasia Concepción	26	+1	31
24	Juventud Unida Univ.	25	+1	31
25	Bartolomé Mitre	24	−1	31
26	Defensores de Vilelas	24	−2	31
27	Independiente De Chivilcoy	26	−4	31
28	Germinal de Rawson	25	−4	31
29	Sarmiento de La Banda	24	−6	30
30	Huracan Las Heras	24	−7	30
31	Guillermo Brown	25	−8	28
32	Juventud Antoniana	24	−3	27
33	Circulo Deportivo	26	−9	25
34	Sol de Mayo	26	−11	25
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	24	−22	21
36	Tucuman Central	24	−18	19
37	Santamarina	25	−18	19