San Martin Formosa v Olimpo Bahia Blanca prediction · Torneo Federal A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:01

San Martin Formosa 2–0 Olimpo Bahia Blanca SAN MARTIN FORMOSA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said San Martin Formosa win~~48%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.406

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.524

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said San Martin Formosa win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: San Martin Formosa 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–31–21
1′KICK-OFF San Martin Formosa v Olimpo Bahia Blanca
12′San Martin Formosa score on 12′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–5
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' San Martin Formosa 1–0 Olimpo Bahia Blanca
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' San Martin Formosa win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
13′San Martin Formosa score on 11′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–5
14′We said San Martin Formosa at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–5
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Olimpo Bahia Blanca
17′Olimpo Bahia Blanca are down to ten from 15′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 79–15–5
17′🟥 RED CARD · 15' Olimpo Bahia Blanca
19′We said San Martin Formosa at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
29′We said San Martin Formosa at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' San Martin Formosa 2–0 Olimpo Bahia Blanca
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' San Martin Formosa win: 48% at kick-off, 96% now
30′San Martin Formosa find the net on 27′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
41′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Olimpo Bahia Blanca
45′HALF-TIME San Martin Formosa 2–0 Olimpo Bahia Blanca
46′SECOND HALF San Martin Formosa 2–0 Olimpo Bahia Blanca
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' San Martin Formosa win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Olimpo Bahia Blanca
74′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
76′We said San Martin Formosa at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME San Martin Formosa 2–0 Olimpo Bahia Blanca
FTSan Martin Formosa 2–0 Olimpo Bahia Blanca · San Martin Formosa win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Martin Formosa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Martin Formosa 48%, draw 31%, Olimpo Bahia Blanca 21%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on San Martin Formosa v Olimpo Bahia BlancaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

San Martin Formosa win48%

Draw31%

Olimpo Bahia Blanca win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:30

RoundSemi-finals

VenueEstadio 17 de Octubre

Line-ups

San Martin Formosa

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Martin Formosa

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Torneo Federal A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

San Martin Formosa

Formation not confirmed

9 M. Siergiejuk

8 R. Tapia

1 K. Humeler

2 O. Piris

10 G. Núñez

6 D. Leiva

3 A. Griego

4 B. Finardi

11 G. Alegre

5 M. Bobadilla

7 L. Ceratto

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · Bautista Sanchez

16 · R. Riquelme

19 · A. Aquino

18 · L. Calo

17 · E. Cuevas

15 · F. Illanes Machuca

14 · Matias Leguizamon

20 · A. Lopez

12 · P. Morichi

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Lungarzo

8 C. Amarilla

4 A. Bellone

6 M. Ferreyra

10 B. Guille

3 L. Lapetina

2 N. Moiraghi

7 M. Olivera

11 D. Ramírez

5 A. Stancato

9 J. Susvielles

Coach · C. Mungo

Substitutes

20 · F. González

12 · C. Geist

15 · S. Fernández

18 · L. Espejo

14 · C. Chimino

Our number · san martin formosa winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market41%

Us48%

~~Market~~41%

We make San Martin Formosa a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Martin Formosa v Olimpo Bahia Blanca~~1.24 – 0.72

~~Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 30 v 31~~4 v 1

~~The market · San Martin Formosa win~~41% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · San Martin Formosa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Martin Formosa win	48%	41%	+7
Draw	31%	33%	−2
Olimpo Bahia Blanca win	21%	26%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	31%	32%	−1
Both teams to score	36%	41%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	58%	59%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	14%	17%	−3
San Martin Formosa or draw	79%	74%	+5
San Martin Formosa clean sheet	49%	–	–
Olimpo Bahia Blanca clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.1%

0123450 14.8 9.8 3.7 1 17.1 12.7 4.4 2 10.8 7.6 2.7 3 4.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Martin Formosa down, Olimpo Bahia Blanca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,195 Torneo Federal A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.9% of games this season, across 489 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Martin Formosa at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Olimpo Bahia Blanca away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for San Martin Formosa, 0.72 for Olimpo Bahia Blanca. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~OLI 1–1 SAN · SAN 1–2 OLI · OLI 1–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 30 Aug

SAN MARTIN FORMOSA

LWDWDD0–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

OLIMPO BAHIA BLANCA

LDDWWD0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	16	+9	31
2	Douglas Haig	18	+7	31
3	Sportivo Belgrano	18	+12	30
4	San Martin Formosa	16	+6	30
5	Alvarado	16	+12	27
6	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	18	+5	27
7	Defensores de Belgrano VR	18	+4	27
8	Kimberley Mar del Plata	16	+6	26
9	Bartolomé Mitre	16	+6	26
10	Sol de América	16	+5	26
11	Juventud Antoniana	16	+8	25
12	Cipolletti	16	+4	25
13	Sarmiento de La Banda	16	+2	25
14	9 de Julio Rafaela	18	+1	25
15	Sportivo Las Parejas	18	−1	24
16	Villa Mitre	16	+6	23
17	Argentino Monte Maíz	16	+4	23
18	Atenas	16	−1	23
19	Huracan Las Heras	16	−2	23
20	Atletico Escobar	18	−8	22
21	Fundacion Amigos	16	+3	21
22	Deportivo Rincon	16	−3	19
23	San Martín Mendoza	16	−4	19
24	Defensores de Vilelas	16	−5	19
25	Independiente De Chivilcoy	18	−7	19
26	El Linqueño	18	−7	19
27	Costa Brava	16	−1	18
28	Sol de Mayo	16	−3	18
29	Boca Unidos	16	−6	18
30	Germinal de Rawson	16	−7	18
31	Juventud Unida Univ.	16	0	17
32	Tucuman Central	16	−5	17
33	Gimnasia Concepción	18	−6	17
34	Guillermo Brown	16	−7	17
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	16	−11	15
36	Santamarina	16	−8	13
37	Circulo Deportivo	16	−8	13