Olimpo Bahia Blanca v San Martin Formosa prediction · Torneo Federal A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1–1 San Martin Formosa OLIMPO BAHIA BLANCA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olimpo Bahia Blanca win~~49%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.763

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.810

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olimpo Bahia Blanca win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Olimpo Bahia Blanca 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–30–21
43′San Martin Formosa ahead on 21′ through lautaro ceratto. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–26–63
45′San Martin Formosa ahead on 21′ through lautaro ceratto. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–26–64
57′A goal for Olimpo Bahia Blanca on 49′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–55–15
65′A goal for Olimpo Bahia Blanca on 49′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 25–62–13
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 30% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 25% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 25% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 30% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 25% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 30% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 30% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 25% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 25% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 30% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 25% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 30% now
77′We said Olimpo Bahia Blanca at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–1 · 15–77–8
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 30% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 25% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 15% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 25% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 15% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 25% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 15% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 15% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: 49% at kick-off, 25% now
FTFULL TIME Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1–1 San Martin Formosa
FTOlimpo Bahia Blanca 1–1 San Martin Formosa · Olimpo Bahia Blanca win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Olimpo Bahia Blanca win49%

Draw30%

San Martin Formosa win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

VenueEstadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti

Line-ups

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

San Martin Formosa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

San Martin Formosa

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Martin Formosa	26	+16	51
2	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	26	+14	50

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

Formation not confirmed

8 C. Amarilla

1 J. Lungarzo

5 A. Stancato

11 D. Ramirez

7 M. Olivera

2 N. Moiraghi

3 L. Lapetina

10 B. Guille

6 M. Ferreyra

4 A. O. Bellone

9 J. Susvielles

Coach · Carlos Mungo

Substitutes

12 · C. Geist

13 · L. Hertel

14 · C. Chimino

15 · S. Fernandez

16 · M. Vargas

17 · E. Coacci

18 · A. Hernandez

19 · L. Espejo

20 · F. Gonzalez

San Martin Formosa

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Humeler

11 G. Alegre

5 M. Bobadilla

7 L. Ceratto

4 B. Finardi

3 A. Griego

6 D. Leiva

10 G. Nunez

2 O. Piris

8 R. Tapia

9 M. Siergiejuk

Coach · Marcelo Rubino

Substitutes

12 · P. Morichi

13 · B. Sanchez

14 · M. Leguizamon

15 · F. Illanes Machuca

16 · R. Riquelme

17 · L. Calo

18 · A. Lopez

19 · E. Cuevas

20 · A. Aquino

Our number · olimpo bahia blanca winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

49% The market51%

Us49%

~~Market~~51%

We make Olimpo Bahia Blanca a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · olimpo bahia blanca win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 68% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olimpo Bahia Blanca win	49%	51%	−2
Draw	30%	29%	+2
San Martin Formosa win	21%	20%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	31%	40%	−9
Both teams to score	36%	44%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	58%	65%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	14%	21%	−8
Olimpo Bahia Blanca or draw	79%	80%	−1
Olimpo Bahia Blanca clean sheet	49%	–	–
San Martin Formosa clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.2%

0123450 14.7 9.7 3.6 1 17.2 12.7 4.4 2 10.9 7.7 2.7 3 4.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olimpo Bahia Blanca down, San Martin Formosa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,178 Torneo Federal A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.9% of games this season, across 472 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olimpo Bahia Blanca at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). San Martin Formosa away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Olimpo Bahia Blanca, 0.71 for San Martin Formosa. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–2 OLI · OLI 1–0 SAN

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A

OLIMPO BAHIA BLANCA

WLDDWW1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

SAN MARTIN FORMOSA

WLWDWD2–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Martin Formosa	26	+16	51
2	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	26	+14	50
3	Alvarado	26	+19	46
4	Douglas Haig	26	+12	43
5	Cipolletti	26	+11	43
6	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	29	+7	43
7	Sol de América	26	+3	43
8	Defensores de Belgrano VR	28	+5	41
9	Kimberley Mar del Plata	25	+9	40
10	Argentino Monte Maíz	25	+6	37
11	9 de Julio Rafaela	26	+4	37
12	Atenas	26	0	37
13	Fundacion Amigos	25	+6	36
14	Sportivo Las Parejas	26	+4	36
15	Sportivo Belgrano	26	+1	35
16	San Martín Mendoza	26	−3	35
17	Costa Brava	25	+3	34
18	Deportivo Rincon	26	+2	34
19	Villa Mitre	24	+7	33
20	Boca Unidos	24	+1	33
21	Atletico Escobar	26	−13	33
22	Defensores de Vilelas	25	−2	32
23	El Linqueño	26	−3	32
24	Gimnasia Concepción	26	+1	31
25	Juventud Unida Univ.	25	+1	31
26	Bartolomé Mitre	24	−1	31
27	Independiente De Chivilcoy	26	−4	31
28	Germinal de Rawson	25	−4	31
29	Juventud Antoniana	25	0	30
30	Sarmiento de La Banda	24	−6	30
31	Huracan Las Heras	25	−10	30
32	Guillermo Brown	25	−8	28
33	Circulo Deportivo	26	−9	25
34	Sol de Mayo	26	−11	25
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	24	−22	21
36	Tucuman Central	24	−18	19
37	Santamarina	25	−18	19