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Kimberley Mar del Plata v Deportivo Rincon

Kimberley Mar del Plata
2–1Full time
Deportivo Rincon

Torneo Federal A · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Jose Antonio Valle

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01
Kimberley Mar del Plata 2–1 Deportivo Rincon KIMBERLEY MAR DEL PLATA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Kimberley Mar del Plata win49%
The market said59%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.396
The market’s Brier score0.261

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kimberley Mar del Plata win at 49%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Kimberley Mar del Plata was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–32–19
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Kimberley Mar del Plata v Deportivo Rincon
  4. 28′We published Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–3
  5. 28′Kimberley Mar del Plata score on 27′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–3
  6. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Kimberley Mar del Plata 1–0 Deportivo Rincon
  7. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 82% now
  8. 32′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  9. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Kimberley Mar del Plata 1–1 Deportivo Rincon
  10. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
  11. 35′Deportivo Rincon find the net on 33′. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–44–17
  12. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
  13. 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Kimberley Mar del Plata win 39%)
  14. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Deportivo Rincon
  15. 41′We said Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 37–47–16
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Kimberley Mar del Plata 1–1 Deportivo Rincon
  17. 47′We said Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–50–15
  18. 47′SECOND HALF Kimberley Mar del Plata 1–1 Deportivo Rincon
  19. 57′We said Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–57–14
  20. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
  21. 65′We said Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–64–11
  22. 65′Kimberley Mar del Plata have had 12 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 24–64–11
  23. 72′We said Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–72–9
  24. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
  25. 73′We published Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–1
  26. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Kimberley Mar del Plata 2–1 Deportivo Rincon
  27. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 91% now
  28. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Kimberley Mar del Plata win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 8%)
  29. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 92% now
  30. 75′A goal for Kimberley Mar del Plata on 73′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–0
  31. 75′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 92–8–0
  32. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Deportivo Rincon
  33. 81′ever ullua scores for Kimberley Mar del Plata on 69′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  34. 82′We published Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  35. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Deportivo Rincon
  36. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
  37. FTFULL TIME Kimberley Mar del Plata 2–1 Deportivo Rincon
  38. FTKimberley Mar del Plata 2–1 Deportivo Rincon · Kimberley Mar del Plata win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kimberley Mar del Plata are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kimberley Mar del Plata 49%, draw 32%, Deportivo Rincon 19%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on Kimberley Mar del Plata v Deportivo RinconBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kimberley Mar del Plata win49%
Draw32%
Deportivo Rincon win19%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundRound of 32

VenueEstadio Jose Antonio Valle

Line-ups

Kimberley Mar del Plata

Deportivo Rincon

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kimberley Mar del Plata

Deportivo Rincon

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Torneo Federal A

Last match: 10 Oct · Torneo Federal A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Kimberley Mar del Plata16+626
22Deportivo Rincon16−319

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kimberley Mar del Plata

Formation not confirmed

1 Nicolas Baez

7 E. Ullua

8 L. Tello

11 F. Russo

9 R. Rios

10 M. Miori

3 F. Mañas

4 T. Loscalso

5 Á. De Gaetani

2 A. Vazquez

6 A. Aquino

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · J. Zárate

12 · D. Aguayo

19 · S. Castillo

18 · leonel iriarte

13 · M. Masino

17 · Luis Perez

20 · J. Santillan

14 · H. Sosa

15 · L. Veron

Deportivo Rincon

Formation not confirmed

3 L. Puñet

1 A. Sánchez

6 J. Albertinazzi

10 C. Avila

5 D. Carrasco

8 bruno bello di

9 M. Dominguez

2 R. Herrera

11 F. Miguel

7 A. Oyola

4 C. Valvuena

Coach · –

Substitutes

15 · Valbuena

19 · Héctor Mauricio Rueda

16 · G. Portino

13 · A. Paez

14 · C. Esteves

12 · J. Criado

17 · C. Correa

18 · Juan Ignacio Achetoni

Our number · kimberley mar del plata winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
49% The market59%
Us49%
Market59%

We make Kimberley Mar del Plata a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kimberley Mar del Plata v Deportivo Rincon1.18 – 0.61
Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 23 AugW2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 26 v 198 v 22
The market · Kimberley Mar del Plata win59% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%50%60%70%80% 12 OCT 03:5917 OCT 18:18
Our probability · Kimberley Mar del Plata win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kimberley Mar del Plata win49%59%−10
Draw32%28%+4
Deportivo Rincon win19%13%+6
Over 2.5 goals27%35%−8
Both teams to score32%33%−1
Over 1.5 goals54%60%−6
Over 3.5 goals11%18%−7
Kimberley Mar del Plata or draw81%87%−6
Kimberley Mar del Plata clean sheet55%––
Deportivo Rincon clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.2%
0123450 17.4 9.8 3.1 1 19.2 12.3 3.6 2 11.5 6.9 2.1 3 4.6 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kimberley Mar del Plata down, Deportivo Rincon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.52 of 6
Both scored2 of 6
Last meetingsDEP 0–1 KIM · DEP 3–1 KIM · DEP 2–2 KIM · KIM 0–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 23 Aug

KIMBERLEY MAR DEL PLATA

LLWDDW0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

DEPORTIVO RINCON

WDDLWL1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Olimpo Bahia Blanca16+931
2Douglas Haig18+731
3Sportivo Belgrano18+1230
4San Martin Formosa16+630
5Alvarado16+1227
6Gimnasia Chivilcoy18+527
7Defensores de Belgrano VR18+427
8Kimberley Mar del Plata16+626
9Bartolomé Mitre16+626
10Sol de América16+526
11Juventud Antoniana16+825
12Cipolletti16+425
13Sarmiento de La Banda16+225
149 de Julio Rafaela18+125
15Sportivo Las Parejas18−124
16Villa Mitre16+623
17Argentino Monte Maíz16+423
18Atenas16−123
19Huracan Las Heras16−223
20Atletico Escobar18−822
21Fundacion Amigos16+321
22Deportivo Rincon16−319
23San Martín Mendoza16−419
24Defensores de Vilelas16−519
25Independiente De Chivilcoy18−719
26El Linqueño18−719
27Costa Brava16−118
28Sol de Mayo16−318
29Boca Unidos16−618
30Germinal de Rawson16−718
31Juventud Unida Univ.16017
32Tucuman Central16−517
33Gimnasia Concepción18−617
34Guillermo Brown16−717
35Sarmiento Resistencia16−1115
36Santamarina16−813
37Circulo Deportivo16−813

The competition's standings before kick-off.