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Kimberley Mar del Plata v Deportivo Rincon
Kimberley Mar del Plata
Deportivo RinconTorneo Federal A · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Jose Antonio Valle
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Kimberley Mar del Plata win at 49%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Kimberley Mar del Plata was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–32–19
- 1′KICK-OFF Kimberley Mar del Plata v Deportivo Rincon
- 28′We published Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–3
- 28′Kimberley Mar del Plata score on 27′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–3
- 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Kimberley Mar del Plata 1–0 Deportivo Rincon
- 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 82% now
- 32′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–3
- 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Kimberley Mar del Plata 1–1 Deportivo Rincon
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
- 35′Deportivo Rincon find the net on 33′. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–44–17
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
- 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Kimberley Mar del Plata win 39%)
- 39′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Deportivo Rincon
- 41′We said Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 37–47–16
- 45′HALF-TIME Kimberley Mar del Plata 1–1 Deportivo Rincon
- 47′We said Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–50–15
- 47′SECOND HALF Kimberley Mar del Plata 1–1 Deportivo Rincon
- 57′We said Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–57–14
- 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
- 65′We said Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–64–11
- 65′Kimberley Mar del Plata have had 12 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 24–64–11
- 72′We said Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–72–9
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
- 73′We published Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–1
- 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Kimberley Mar del Plata 2–1 Deportivo Rincon
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 91% now
- 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Kimberley Mar del Plata win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 8%)
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 92% now
- 75′A goal for Kimberley Mar del Plata on 73′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–0
- 75′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 92–8–0
- 79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Deportivo Rincon
- 81′ever ullua scores for Kimberley Mar del Plata on 69′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 95–5–0
- 82′We published Kimberley Mar del Plata at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
- 89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Deportivo Rincon
- 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Kimberley Mar del Plata win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
- FTFULL TIME Kimberley Mar del Plata 2–1 Deportivo Rincon
- FTKimberley Mar del Plata 2–1 Deportivo Rincon · Kimberley Mar del Plata win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassKimberley Mar del Plata are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Kimberley Mar del Plata 49%, draw 32%, Deportivo Rincon 19%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 32%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Kimberley Mar del Plata win49%
Deportivo Rincon win19%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00
RoundRound of 32
VenueEstadio Jose Antonio Valle
Match timeline
All events
Kimberley Mar del PlataMIN
Deportivo RinconEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Kimberley Mar del Plata
Deportivo Rincon
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Kimberley Mar del Plata
Deportivo Rincon
Last match: 10 Oct · Torneo Federal A
Last match: 10 Oct · Torneo Federal A
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Kimberley Mar del Plata
Formation not confirmed
1 Nicolas Baez
7 E. Ullua
8 L. Tello
11 F. Russo
9 R. Rios
10 M. Miori
3 F. Mañas
4 T. Loscalso
5 Á. De Gaetani
2 A. Vazquez
6 A. Aquino
Coach · –
Substitutes
16 · J. Zárate
12 · D. Aguayo
19 · S. Castillo
18 · leonel iriarte
13 · M. Masino
17 · Luis Perez
20 · J. Santillan
14 · H. Sosa
15 · L. Veron
Deportivo Rincon
Formation not confirmed
3 L. Puñet
1 A. Sánchez
6 J. Albertinazzi
10 C. Avila
5 D. Carrasco
8 bruno bello di
9 M. Dominguez
2 R. Herrera
11 F. Miguel
7 A. Oyola
4 C. Valvuena
Coach · –
Substitutes
15 · Valbuena
19 · Héctor Mauricio Rueda
16 · G. Portino
13 · A. Paez
14 · C. Esteves
12 · J. Criado
17 · C. Correa
18 · Juan Ignacio Achetoni
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Kimberley Mar del Plata
Formation not confirmed
1 Nicolas Baez
7 E. Ullua
8 L. Tello
11 F. Russo
9 R. Rios
10 M. Miori
3 F. Mañas
4 T. Loscalso
5 Á. De Gaetani
2 A. Vazquez
6 A. Aquino
Coach · –
Substitutes
16 · J. Zárate
12 · D. Aguayo
19 · S. Castillo
18 · leonel iriarte
13 · M. Masino
17 · Luis Perez
20 · J. Santillan
14 · H. Sosa
15 · L. Veron
Deportivo Rincon
Formation not confirmed
3 L. Puñet
1 A. Sánchez
6 J. Albertinazzi
10 C. Avila
5 D. Carrasco
8 bruno bello di
9 M. Dominguez
2 R. Herrera
11 F. Miguel
7 A. Oyola
4 C. Valvuena
Coach · –
Substitutes
15 · Valbuena
19 · Héctor Mauricio Rueda
16 · G. Portino
13 · A. Paez
14 · C. Esteves
12 · J. Criado
17 · C. Correa
18 · Juan Ignacio Achetoni
We make Kimberley Mar del Plata a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimberley Mar del Plata win | 49% | 59% | −10 |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | +4 |
| Deportivo Rincon win | 19% | 13% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 35% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | 32% | 33% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54% | 60% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 18% | −7 |
| Kimberley Mar del Plata or draw | 81% | 87% | −6 |
| Kimberley Mar del Plata clean sheet | 55% | – | – |
| Deportivo Rincon clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
6 meetings since 2024Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 23 Aug
KIMBERLEY MAR DEL PLATA
DEPORTIVO RINCON
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 | Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 | San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 | Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 | Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | −1 | 24 |
| 16 | Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 | Atenas | 16 | −1 | 23 |
| 19 | Huracan Las Heras | 16 | −2 | 23 |
| 20 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | −8 | 22 |
| 21 | Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 | Deportivo Rincon | 16 | −3 | 19 |
| 23 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | −4 | 19 |
| 24 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | −5 | 19 |
| 25 | Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | −7 | 19 |
| 26 | El Linqueño | 18 | −7 | 19 |
| 27 | Costa Brava | 16 | −1 | 18 |
| 28 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | −3 | 18 |
| 29 | Boca Unidos | 16 | −6 | 18 |
| 30 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | −7 | 18 |
| 31 | Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 | Tucuman Central | 16 | −5 | 17 |
| 33 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | −6 | 17 |
| 34 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | −7 | 17 |
| 35 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | −11 | 15 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | −8 | 13 |
| 37 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | −8 | 13 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Douglas Haig
Sportivo Belgrano
San Martin Formosa
Alvarado
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Defensores de Belgrano VR
Bartolomé Mitre
Sol de América
Juventud Antoniana
Cipolletti
Sarmiento de La Banda
9 de Julio Rafaela
Sportivo Las Parejas
Villa Mitre
Argentino Monte Maíz
Atenas
Huracan Las Heras
Atletico Escobar
Fundacion Amigos
San Martín Mendoza
Defensores de Vilelas
Independiente De Chivilcoy
El Linqueño
Costa Brava
Sol de Mayo
Boca Unidos
Germinal de Rawson
Juventud Unida Univ.
Tucuman Central
Gimnasia Concepción
Guillermo Brown
Sarmiento Resistencia
Santamarina
Circulo Deportivo