Huracan Las Heras v Juventud Antoniana prediction · Torneo Federal A

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Huracan Las Heras 1–0 Juventud Antoniana HURACAN LAS HERAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Huracan Las Heras win~~41%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.521

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.548

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Huracan Las Heras win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Huracan Las Heras 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–34–25
1′KICK-OFF Huracan Las Heras v Juventud Antoniana
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Huracan Las Heras win 36%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Huracan Las Heras win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
43′A goal for Huracan Las Heras on 43′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–4
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Huracan Las Heras 1–0 Juventud Antoniana
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Huracan Las Heras win: 41% at kick-off, 80% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Huracan Las Heras win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
44′We said Huracan Las Heras at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
45′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 80–16–3
45′HALF-TIME Huracan Las Heras 1–0 Juventud Antoniana
46′SECOND HALF Huracan Las Heras 1–0 Juventud Antoniana
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Huracan Las Heras
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Huracan Las Heras win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
62′We said Huracan Las Heras at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
74′We said Huracan Las Heras at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Huracan Las Heras
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Huracan Las Heras win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
FTFULL TIME Huracan Las Heras 1–0 Juventud Antoniana
FTHuracan Las Heras 1–0 Juventud Antoniana · Huracan Las Heras win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Huracan Las Heras are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Huracan Las Heras 41%, draw 34%, Juventud Antoniana 25%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Huracan Las Heras v Juventud AntonianaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Huracan Las Heras win41%

Draw34%

Juventud Antoniana win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:30

RoundRound of 32

VenueGeneral San Martin

Line-ups

Huracan Las Heras

Juventud Antoniana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Huracan Las Heras

Juventud Antoniana

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Torneo Federal A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Juventud Antoniana	16	+8	25
19	Huracan Las Heras	16	−2	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Huracan Las Heras

Formation not confirmed

6 R. Arciero

5 N. Sandoval

3 E. Montenegro

11 lucas lopez

7 Eduardo Leiva

4 Matias Dieli

9 F. Cortés

2 G. Cóceres

10 E. Bogado

1 F. Agüero

8 S. Úbeda

Coach · A. Bolado

Substitutes

18 · J. Aguilar

15 · A. Alessandrini

17 · L. Algozino

14 · J. Alvacete

19 · Alejo Blanco

12 · G. Rivas

20 · Maximo Rodriguez

16 · Marcos Ignacio Sosa

13 · Claudio Ulloa

Juventud Antoniana

Formation not confirmed

7 M. Vicedo

1 F. Abraham

10 T. Assennato

4 N. Gómez

5 J. Iturrieta

6 Agustin Lopez

11 T. Marchiori

2 I. Monti

9 Pedro Mune

3 I. Sanabria

8 J. Palacios

Coach · S. Maza

Substitutes

19 · G. Bracamonte

14 · Diego Cari

16 · A. Costilla

13 · F. Fernandez

15 · P. Flores

18 · mateo figueroa

12 · J. Nadal

20 · P. Palacios

17 · G. Taborda

Our number · huracan las heras winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market40%

Us41%

~~Market~~40%

We make Huracan Las Heras a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Huracan Las Heras v Juventud Antoniana~~1.03 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 16 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 23 v 25~~19 v 11

~~The market · Huracan Las Heras win~~40% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Huracan Las Heras win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Huracan Las Heras win	41%	40%	+1
Draw	34%	33%	+1
Juventud Antoniana win	25%	27%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	26%	36%	−10
Both teams to score	33%	43%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	53%	61%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	10%	19%	−9
Huracan Las Heras or draw	75%	73%	+2
Huracan Las Heras clean sheet	48%	–	–
Juventud Antoniana clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.9%

0123450 17.9 12.1 4.6 1 17.2 13.2 4.7 2 9.1 6.5 2.4 3 3.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Huracan Las Heras down, Juventud Antoniana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,188 Torneo Federal A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.5% of games this season, across 482 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Huracan Las Heras at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Juventud Antoniana away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Huracan Las Heras, 0.73 for Juventud Antoniana. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~JUV 3–0 HUR · HUR 1–0 JUV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 16 Aug

HURACAN LAS HERAS

WLLDWL1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–3

JUVENTUD ANTONIANA

DLLLLW0–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	16	+9	31
2	Douglas Haig	18	+7	31
3	Sportivo Belgrano	18	+12	30
4	San Martin Formosa	16	+6	30
5	Alvarado	16	+12	27
6	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	18	+5	27
7	Defensores de Belgrano VR	18	+4	27
8	Kimberley Mar del Plata	16	+6	26
9	Bartolomé Mitre	16	+6	26
10	Sol de América	16	+5	26
11	Juventud Antoniana	16	+8	25
12	Cipolletti	16	+4	25
13	Sarmiento de La Banda	16	+2	25
14	9 de Julio Rafaela	18	+1	25
15	Sportivo Las Parejas	18	−1	24
16	Villa Mitre	16	+6	23
17	Argentino Monte Maíz	16	+4	23
18	Atenas	16	−1	23
19	Huracan Las Heras	16	−2	23
20	Atletico Escobar	18	−8	22
21	Fundacion Amigos	16	+3	21
22	Deportivo Rincon	16	−3	19
23	San Martín Mendoza	16	−4	19
24	Defensores de Vilelas	16	−5	19
25	Independiente De Chivilcoy	18	−7	19
26	El Linqueño	18	−7	19
27	Costa Brava	16	−1	18
28	Sol de Mayo	16	−3	18
29	Boca Unidos	16	−6	18
30	Germinal de Rawson	16	−7	18
31	Juventud Unida Univ.	16	0	17
32	Tucuman Central	16	−5	17
33	Gimnasia Concepción	18	−6	17
34	Guillermo Brown	16	−7	17
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	16	−11	15
36	Santamarina	16	−8	13
37	Circulo Deportivo	16	−8	13