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Gimnasia Concepción v 9 de Julio Rafaela

Gimnasia Concepción

4–1Full time

9 de Julio Rafaela

Torneo Federal A · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Manuel y Ramon Nunez

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Gimnasia Concepción 4–1 9 de Julio Rafaela GIMNASIA CONCEPCIÓN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gimnasia Concepción win~~41%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.524

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.418

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 43 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gimnasia Concepción win at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF Gimnasia Concepción v 9 de Julio Rafaela
2′Little has changed for our model: Gimnasia Concepción 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–30–29
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Gimnasia Concepción 1–0 9 de Julio Rafaela
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Gimnasia Concepción 2–0 9 de Julio Rafaela · Manuel agustin favre
9′⚽ GOAL · 7' Gimnasia Concepción 2–0 9 de Julio Rafaela
22′Gimnasia Concepción find the net on 7′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
30′🟥 RED CARD · 27' 9 de Julio Rafaela
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
43′9 de Julio Rafaela are down to ten from 27′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 95–4–1
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 95% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 95% now
45′Gimnasia Concepción find the net on 7′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Gimnasia Concepción win: 41% at kick-off, 95% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' 9 de Julio Rafaela
45′HALF-TIME Gimnasia Concepción 2–0 9 de Julio Rafaela
46′SECOND HALF Gimnasia Concepción 2–0 9 de Julio Rafaela
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' 9 de Julio Rafaela
60′9 de Julio Rafaela are down to ten from 27′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 97–2–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Gimnasia Concepción 3–0 9 de Julio Rafaela · Manuel agustin favre
62′⚽ GOAL · 60' Gimnasia Concepción 3–0 9 de Julio Rafaela
68′A goal for Gimnasia Concepción on 60′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' 9 de Julio Rafaela
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Gimnasia Concepción
80′A goal for Gimnasia Concepción on 60′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Gimnasia Concepción 3–1 9 de Julio Rafaela · Manuel agustin favre
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Gimnasia Concepción 3–1 9 de Julio Rafaela
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Gimnasia Concepción 4–1 9 de Julio Rafaela · Manuel agustin favre
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Gimnasia Concepción 4–1 9 de Julio Rafaela
FTFULL TIME Gimnasia Concepción 4–1 9 de Julio Rafaela
FTGimnasia Concepción 4–1 9 de Julio Rafaela · Gimnasia Concepción win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gimnasia Concepción win41%

Draw31%

9 de Julio Rafaela win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

VenueEstadio Manuel y Ramon Nunez

Line-ups

Gimnasia Concepción

9 de Julio Rafaela

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gimnasia Concepción

9 de Julio Rafaela

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	9 de Julio Rafaela	26	+4	37
24	Gimnasia Concepción	26	+1	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Gimnasia Concepción

Formation not confirmed

5 L. Altamirano

1 E. Rebora

7 J. Rodriguez

2 T. Palladino

3 R. Olague

6 F. Laumann

10 N. Germanier

8 A. Favre

4 J. Casares

11 M. Bogado

9 L. Vila

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · R. Baro

13 · F. Bochatay

14 · N. Suarez

15 · A. Arraigada

16 · N. Lebus

17 · D. Baltore

18 · E. Marquez

19 · A. Garcia

20 · L. Dening

9 de Julio Rafaela

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Cuevas

3 S. Acuna

2 T. Androetto

7 L. Larrea

11 C. Luduena

8 P. Ramirez

4 T. Rouiller

5 A. Salcedo

9 M. Solari

6 A. Vanega

10 L. Troncoso

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Zanoni

13 · M. Ferlini

14 · N. Bravo

15 · J. Nazzi

16 · D. Ramirez

17 · F. Diaz

18 · F. Garcia

19 · J. Cabral

20 · R. Abondetto

Our number · gimnasia concepción winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

41% The market47%

Us41%

~~Market~~47%

We make Gimnasia Concepción a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gimnasia concepción win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimnasia Concepción win	41%	47%	−6
Draw	31%	30%	0
9 de Julio Rafaela win	28%	22%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	34%	37%	−3
Both teams to score	41%	42%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	62%	62%	0
Over 3.5 goals	16%	18%	−3
Gimnasia Concepción or draw	72%	78%	−6
Gimnasia Concepción clean sheet	40%	–	–
9 de Julio Rafaela clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 13.2 11.1 5.3 1 14.2 13.5 6.0 2 8.4 7.6 3.5 3 3.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimnasia Concepción down, 9 de Julio Rafaela across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,178 Torneo Federal A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.9% of games this season, across 472 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gimnasia Concepción at home: 1.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). 9 de Julio Rafaela away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Gimnasia Concepción, 0.92 for 9 de Julio Rafaela. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GIM 3–0 DEJ · DEJ 4–1 GIM · GIM 1–0 DEJ · DEJ 2–0 GIM

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A

GIMNASIA CONCEPCIÓN

WWDLWL2–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

9 DE JULIO RAFAELA

WLWWLD1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Martin Formosa	26	+16	51
2	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	26	+14	50
3	Alvarado	26	+19	46
4	Douglas Haig	26	+12	43
5	Cipolletti	26	+11	43
6	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	29	+7	43
7	Sol de América	26	+3	43
8	Defensores de Belgrano VR	28	+5	41
9	Kimberley Mar del Plata	25	+9	40
10	Argentino Monte Maíz	25	+6	37
11	9 de Julio Rafaela	26	+4	37
12	Atenas	26	0	37
13	Fundacion Amigos	25	+6	36
14	Sportivo Las Parejas	26	+4	36
15	Sportivo Belgrano	26	+1	35
16	San Martín Mendoza	26	−3	35
17	Costa Brava	25	+3	34
18	Deportivo Rincon	26	+2	34
19	Villa Mitre	24	+7	33
20	Boca Unidos	24	+1	33
21	Atletico Escobar	26	−13	33
22	Defensores de Vilelas	25	−2	32
23	El Linqueño	26	−3	32
24	Gimnasia Concepción	26	+1	31
25	Juventud Unida Univ.	25	+1	31
26	Bartolomé Mitre	24	−1	31
27	Independiente De Chivilcoy	26	−4	31
28	Germinal de Rawson	25	−4	31
29	Juventud Antoniana	25	0	30
30	Sarmiento de La Banda	24	−6	30
31	Huracan Las Heras	25	−10	30
32	Guillermo Brown	25	−8	28
33	Circulo Deportivo	26	−9	25
34	Sol de Mayo	26	−11	25
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	24	−22	21
36	Tucuman Central	24	−18	19
37	Santamarina	25	−18	19