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Gimnasia Chivilcoy v Defensores de Vilelas

Gimnasia Chivilcoy
3–3Full time
Defensores de Vilelas

Torneo Federal A · SAT 17 OCT · Jose Maria Paz

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:30
Gimnasia Chivilcoy 3–3 Defensores de Vilelas GIMNASIA CHIVILCOY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Gimnasia Chivilcoy win58%
The market said67%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.917
The market’s Brier score1.079

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Gimnasia Chivilcoy win at 58%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Gimnasia Chivilcoy 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–26–16
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Gimnasia Chivilcoy v Defensores de Vilelas
  4. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Gimnasia Chivilcoy
  5. 23′Defensores de Vilelas score on 20′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 24–28–48
  6. 23′⚽ GOAL · 20' Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0–1 Defensores de Vilelas
  7. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Gimnasia Chivilcoy win: 58% at kick-off, 24% now
  8. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Defensores de Vilelas win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Gimnasia Chivilcoy win 24%)
  9. 24′We said Gimnasia Chivilcoy at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–2 · 8–15–77
  10. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0–2 Defensores de Vilelas
  11. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Gimnasia Chivilcoy win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
  12. 26′Defensores de Vilelas find the net on 23′. 0–2. 0–2 · 8–15–77
  13. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Defensores de Vilelas
  14. 43′We said Gimnasia Chivilcoy at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–12–84
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0–2 Defensores de Vilelas
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0–2 Defensores de Vilelas
  17. 55′We said Gimnasia Chivilcoy at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–27–62
  18. 55′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 10–27–62
  19. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Gimnasia Chivilcoy 1–2 Defensores de Vilelas
  20. 59′A goal for Gimnasia Chivilcoy on 55′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–26–65
  21. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Defensores de Vilelas
  22. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Gimnasia Chivilcoy · On: N. Ortiz · Off: Lucas samaniego
  23. 63′We said Gimnasia Chivilcoy at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 2–2 · 32–55–12
  24. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Gimnasia Chivilcoy 2–2 Defensores de Vilelas
  25. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Gimnasia Chivilcoy win: 58% at kick-off, 32% now
  26. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Defensores de Vilelas win 12%)
  27. 65′Gimnasia Chivilcoy score on 63′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 31–57–12
  28. 65′12 shots for Defensores de Vilelas, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 31–57–12
  29. 69′Defensores de Vilelas find the net on 66′. 2–3. 2–3 · 5–22–73
  30. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Defensores de Vilelas · On: Leonardo Navarro · Off: J. Turraca
  31. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Defensores de Vilelas · On: gabriel moreno · Off: rodrigo montenegro
  32. 69′⚽ GOAL · 66' Gimnasia Chivilcoy 2–3 Defensores de Vilelas
  33. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Gimnasia Chivilcoy win: 58% at kick-off, 5% now
  34. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Defensores de Vilelas win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 22%)
  35. 70′5 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 4–22–74
  36. 72′Defensores de Vilelas ahead on 65′ through gonzalo canete. 2–3. 2–3 · 4–21–76
  37. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Defensores de Vilelas
  38. 79′We said Gimnasia Chivilcoy at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 3–3 · 16–77–7
  39. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Defensores de Vilelas
  40. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Gimnasia Chivilcoy 3–3 Defensores de Vilelas
  41. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Gimnasia Chivilcoy win: 58% at kick-off, 16% now
  42. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Defensores de Vilelas win 7%)
  43. 80′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 15–78–6
  44. 82′A goal for Gimnasia Chivilcoy on 79′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 13–82–5
  45. 83′fausto fiol scores for Gimnasia Chivilcoy on 78′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 11–84–5
  46. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Gimnasia Chivilcoy win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
  47. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Gimnasia Chivilcoy
  48. FTFULL TIME Gimnasia Chivilcoy 3–3 Defensores de Vilelas
  49. FTGimnasia Chivilcoy 3–3 Defensores de Vilelas · Gimnasia Chivilcoy win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gimnasia Chivilcoy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gimnasia Chivilcoy 58%, draw 26%, Defensores de Vilelas 16%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Gimnasia Chivilcoy v Defensores de VilelasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gimnasia Chivilcoy win58%
Draw26%
Defensores de Vilelas win16%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 22:00

RoundRound of 32

VenueJose Maria Paz

Line-ups

Gimnasia Chivilcoy

Defensores de Vilelas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gimnasia Chivilcoy

Defensores de Vilelas

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Torneo Federal A

Last match: 10 Oct · Torneo Federal A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Gimnasia Chivilcoy18+527
24Defensores de Vilelas16−519

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gimnasia Chivilcoy

Formation not confirmed

10 Lucio Almada

1 N. Dormisch

6 Lucas Samaniego

11 M. Salvaggio

9 E. Morales

7 R. Medina

8 M. Gutierrez

2 F. Fiol

4 M. Dauria

3 X. D'Amelio

5 A. Zarate

Coach · –

Substitutes

14 · E. Bassi

16 · V. Fernandez

15 · M. Gallo

13 · A. Guglielmo

12 · N. Ilchischen

19 · J. Millan

20 · N. Ortiz

18 · N. Pavone

17 · Brian Visser

Defensores de Vilelas

Formation not confirmed

1 Milton Ferreyra

5 M. Acevedo

11 J. Canario

8 G. Cañete

9 G. Carballo

6 F. Farias

4 F. Fernandez

3 N. Molina

10 R. Montenegro

2 Jorge Turraca

7 L. Remotti

Coach · –

Substitutes

19 · Lautaro Larrasabal

12 · L. Ledesma

16 · I. Montenegro

17 · Gabriel Moreno

14 · L. Navarro

18 · L. Niz

20 · G. Ojeda

15 · A. Vargas

13 · F. Lallana

Our number · gimnasia chivilcoy winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
58% The market67%
Us58%
Market67%

We make Gimnasia Chivilcoy a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Gimnasia Chivilcoy v Defensores de Vilelas1.60 – 0.71
Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 16 AugW2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 27 v 196 v 24
The market · Gimnasia Chivilcoy win67% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 12 OCT 03:5917 OCT 20:38
Our probability · Gimnasia Chivilcoy win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Gimnasia Chivilcoy win58%67%−9
Draw26%21%+5
Defensores de Vilelas win16%12%+4
Over 2.5 goals41%52%−11
Both teams to score40%44%−4
Over 1.5 goals67%73%−6
Over 3.5 goals20%31%−11
Gimnasia Chivilcoy or draw84%88%−4
Gimnasia Chivilcoy clean sheet50%––
Defensores de Vilelas clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.5%
0123450 10.6 6.7 2.5 1 15.5 11.5 3.9 2 12.6 8.8 3.1 3 6.8 4.7 4 2.8 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Gimnasia Chivilcoy down, Defensores de Vilelas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsDEF 1–1 GIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 16 Aug

GIMNASIA CHIVILCOY

WWDLLD1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

DEFENSORES DE VILELAS

LDLWDD0–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Olimpo Bahia Blanca16+931
2Douglas Haig18+731
3Sportivo Belgrano18+1230
4San Martin Formosa16+630
5Alvarado16+1227
6Gimnasia Chivilcoy18+527
7Defensores de Belgrano VR18+427
8Kimberley Mar del Plata16+626
9Bartolomé Mitre16+626
10Sol de América16+526
11Juventud Antoniana16+825
12Cipolletti16+425
13Sarmiento de La Banda16+225
149 de Julio Rafaela18+125
15Sportivo Las Parejas18−124
16Villa Mitre16+623
17Argentino Monte Maíz16+423
18Atenas16−123
19Huracan Las Heras16−223
20Atletico Escobar18−822
21Fundacion Amigos16+321
22Deportivo Rincon16−319
23San Martín Mendoza16−419
24Defensores de Vilelas16−519
25Independiente De Chivilcoy18−719
26El Linqueño18−719
27Costa Brava16−118
28Sol de Mayo16−318
29Boca Unidos16−618
30Germinal de Rawson16−718
31Juventud Unida Univ.16017
32Tucuman Central16−517
33Gimnasia Concepción18−617
34Guillermo Brown16−717
35Sarmiento Resistencia16−1115
36Santamarina16−813
37Circulo Deportivo16−813

The competition's standings before kick-off.