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Gimnasia Chivilcoy v Defensores de Vilelas
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Defensores de VilelasTorneo Federal A · SAT 17 OCT · Jose Maria Paz
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Gimnasia Chivilcoy win at 58%.
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Gimnasia Chivilcoy 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–26–16
- 2′KICK-OFF Gimnasia Chivilcoy v Defensores de Vilelas
- 18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Gimnasia Chivilcoy
- 23′Defensores de Vilelas score on 20′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 24–28–48
- 23′⚽ GOAL · 20' Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0–1 Defensores de Vilelas
- 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Gimnasia Chivilcoy win: 58% at kick-off, 24% now
- 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Defensores de Vilelas win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Gimnasia Chivilcoy win 24%)
- 24′We said Gimnasia Chivilcoy at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–2 · 8–15–77
- 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0–2 Defensores de Vilelas
- 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Gimnasia Chivilcoy win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
- 26′Defensores de Vilelas find the net on 23′. 0–2. 0–2 · 8–15–77
- 26′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Defensores de Vilelas
- 43′We said Gimnasia Chivilcoy at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–12–84
- 45′HALF-TIME Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0–2 Defensores de Vilelas
- 46′SECOND HALF Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0–2 Defensores de Vilelas
- 55′We said Gimnasia Chivilcoy at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–27–62
- 55′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 10–27–62
- 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Gimnasia Chivilcoy 1–2 Defensores de Vilelas
- 59′A goal for Gimnasia Chivilcoy on 55′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–26–65
- 60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Defensores de Vilelas
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Gimnasia Chivilcoy · On: N. Ortiz · Off: Lucas samaniego
- 63′We said Gimnasia Chivilcoy at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 2–2 · 32–55–12
- 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Gimnasia Chivilcoy 2–2 Defensores de Vilelas
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Gimnasia Chivilcoy win: 58% at kick-off, 32% now
- 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Defensores de Vilelas win 12%)
- 65′Gimnasia Chivilcoy score on 63′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 31–57–12
- 65′12 shots for Defensores de Vilelas, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 31–57–12
- 69′Defensores de Vilelas find the net on 66′. 2–3. 2–3 · 5–22–73
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Defensores de Vilelas · On: Leonardo Navarro · Off: J. Turraca
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Defensores de Vilelas · On: gabriel moreno · Off: rodrigo montenegro
- 69′⚽ GOAL · 66' Gimnasia Chivilcoy 2–3 Defensores de Vilelas
- 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Gimnasia Chivilcoy win: 58% at kick-off, 5% now
- 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Defensores de Vilelas win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 22%)
- 70′5 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 4–22–74
- 72′Defensores de Vilelas ahead on 65′ through gonzalo canete. 2–3. 2–3 · 4–21–76
- 75′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Defensores de Vilelas
- 79′We said Gimnasia Chivilcoy at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 3–3 · 16–77–7
- 79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Defensores de Vilelas
- 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Gimnasia Chivilcoy 3–3 Defensores de Vilelas
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Gimnasia Chivilcoy win: 58% at kick-off, 16% now
- 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Defensores de Vilelas win 7%)
- 80′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 15–78–6
- 82′A goal for Gimnasia Chivilcoy on 79′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 13–82–5
- 83′fausto fiol scores for Gimnasia Chivilcoy on 78′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 11–84–5
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Gimnasia Chivilcoy win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
- 90′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Gimnasia Chivilcoy
- FTFULL TIME Gimnasia Chivilcoy 3–3 Defensores de Vilelas
- FTGimnasia Chivilcoy 3–3 Defensores de Vilelas · Gimnasia Chivilcoy win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassGimnasia Chivilcoy are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Gimnasia Chivilcoy 58%, draw 26%, Defensores de Vilelas 16%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 40%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Gimnasia Chivilcoy win58%
Defensores de Vilelas win16%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 22:00
RoundRound of 32
VenueJose Maria Paz
Match timeline
All events
Gimnasia ChivilcoyMIN
Defensores de VilelasEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Defensores de Vilelas
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Defensores de Vilelas
Last match: 10 Oct · Torneo Federal A
Last match: 10 Oct · Torneo Federal A
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Formation not confirmed
10 Lucio Almada
1 N. Dormisch
6 Lucas Samaniego
11 M. Salvaggio
9 E. Morales
7 R. Medina
8 M. Gutierrez
2 F. Fiol
4 M. Dauria
3 X. D'Amelio
5 A. Zarate
Coach · –
Substitutes
14 · E. Bassi
16 · V. Fernandez
15 · M. Gallo
13 · A. Guglielmo
12 · N. Ilchischen
19 · J. Millan
20 · N. Ortiz
18 · N. Pavone
17 · Brian Visser
Defensores de Vilelas
Formation not confirmed
1 Milton Ferreyra
5 M. Acevedo
11 J. Canario
8 G. Cañete
9 G. Carballo
6 F. Farias
4 F. Fernandez
3 N. Molina
10 R. Montenegro
2 Jorge Turraca
7 L. Remotti
Coach · –
Substitutes
19 · Lautaro Larrasabal
12 · L. Ledesma
16 · I. Montenegro
17 · Gabriel Moreno
14 · L. Navarro
18 · L. Niz
20 · G. Ojeda
15 · A. Vargas
13 · F. Lallana
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Formation not confirmed
10 Lucio Almada
1 N. Dormisch
6 Lucas Samaniego
11 M. Salvaggio
9 E. Morales
7 R. Medina
8 M. Gutierrez
2 F. Fiol
4 M. Dauria
3 X. D'Amelio
5 A. Zarate
Coach · –
Substitutes
14 · E. Bassi
16 · V. Fernandez
15 · M. Gallo
13 · A. Guglielmo
12 · N. Ilchischen
19 · J. Millan
20 · N. Ortiz
18 · N. Pavone
17 · Brian Visser
Defensores de Vilelas
Formation not confirmed
1 Milton Ferreyra
5 M. Acevedo
11 J. Canario
8 G. Cañete
9 G. Carballo
6 F. Farias
4 F. Fernandez
3 N. Molina
10 R. Montenegro
2 Jorge Turraca
7 L. Remotti
Coach · –
Substitutes
19 · Lautaro Larrasabal
12 · L. Ledesma
16 · I. Montenegro
17 · Gabriel Moreno
14 · L. Navarro
18 · L. Niz
20 · G. Ojeda
15 · A. Vargas
13 · F. Lallana
We make Gimnasia Chivilcoy a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Chivilcoy win | 58% | 67% | −9 |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | +5 |
| Defensores de Vilelas win | 16% | 12% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 52% | −11 |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 44% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 73% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 31% | −11 |
| Gimnasia Chivilcoy or draw | 84% | 88% | −4 |
| Gimnasia Chivilcoy clean sheet | 50% | – | – |
| Defensores de Vilelas clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2026Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 16 Aug
GIMNASIA CHIVILCOY
DEFENSORES DE VILELAS
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 | Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 | San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 | Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 | Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | −1 | 24 |
| 16 | Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 | Atenas | 16 | −1 | 23 |
| 19 | Huracan Las Heras | 16 | −2 | 23 |
| 20 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | −8 | 22 |
| 21 | Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 | Deportivo Rincon | 16 | −3 | 19 |
| 23 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | −4 | 19 |
| 24 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | −5 | 19 |
| 25 | Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | −7 | 19 |
| 26 | El Linqueño | 18 | −7 | 19 |
| 27 | Costa Brava | 16 | −1 | 18 |
| 28 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | −3 | 18 |
| 29 | Boca Unidos | 16 | −6 | 18 |
| 30 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | −7 | 18 |
| 31 | Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 | Tucuman Central | 16 | −5 | 17 |
| 33 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | −6 | 17 |
| 34 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | −7 | 17 |
| 35 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | −11 | 15 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | −8 | 13 |
| 37 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | −8 | 13 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Douglas Haig
Sportivo Belgrano
San Martin Formosa
Alvarado
Defensores de Belgrano VR
Kimberley Mar del Plata
Bartolomé Mitre
Sol de América
Juventud Antoniana
Cipolletti
Sarmiento de La Banda
9 de Julio Rafaela
Sportivo Las Parejas
Villa Mitre
Argentino Monte Maíz
Atenas
Huracan Las Heras
Atletico Escobar
Fundacion Amigos
Deportivo Rincon
San Martín Mendoza
Independiente De Chivilcoy
El Linqueño
Costa Brava
Sol de Mayo
Boca Unidos
Germinal de Rawson
Juventud Unida Univ.
Tucuman Central
Gimnasia Concepción
Guillermo Brown
Sarmiento Resistencia
Santamarina
Circulo Deportivo