Fundacion Amigos v Atenas prediction · Torneo Federal A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Fundacion Amigos 2–0 Atenas FUNDACION AMIGOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fundacion Amigos win~~47%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.426

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.430

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fundacion Amigos win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Fundacion Amigos v Atenas
2′Little has changed for our model: Fundacion Amigos 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–31–22
5′Little has changed for our model: Fundacion Amigos 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–32–22
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Fundacion Amigos 0–0 Atenas
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Fundacion Amigos 1–0 Atenas
18′A goal for Fundacion Amigos on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Fundacion Amigos win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Fundacion Amigos win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Fundacion Amigos win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Fundacion Amigos win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Fundacion Amigos win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Fundacion Amigos win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
21′A goal for Fundacion Amigos on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Fundacion Amigos win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Fundacion Amigos win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
31′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Fundacion Amigos
36′We said Fundacion Amigos at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–4
37′We said Fundacion Amigos at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
45′HALF-TIME Fundacion Amigos 1–0 Atenas
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Fundacion Amigos win: 47% at kick-off, 81% now
46′SECOND HALF Fundacion Amigos 1–0 Atenas
60′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Atenas
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Fundacion Amigos 2–0 Atenas · M. Persia
63′⚽ GOAL · 61' Fundacion Amigos 2–0 Atenas
69′⚽ GOAL · 60' Fundacion Amigos 2–0 Atenas · M. Persia
74′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Atenas
86′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Fundacion Amigos
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Atenas
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Atenas
FTFULL TIME Fundacion Amigos 2–0 Atenas
FTFundacion Amigos 2–0 Atenas · Fundacion Amigos win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Fundacion Amigos win47%

Draw32%

Atenas win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Line-ups

Fundacion Amigos

Atenas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Fundacion Amigos

Atenas

21Days since last match7

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Atenas	26	0	37
13	Fundacion Amigos	25	+6	36

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Fundacion Amigos

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Aracena

11 L. Taboada

6 B. Sosa

7 L. Soria

9 M. Persia

8 I. Perez

3 F. Perez

5 L. R. Lopez

2 N. Iribarren

10 D. Tonetto

4 N. Ali

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · T. Satti

12 · F. Rivadeneira

15 · E. Kalinski

16 · E. Bonacorso

18 · M. Navarro

19 · G. Klusener

20 · B. Cuello

17 · J. Mendez

14 · B. Zabaleta

Atenas

Formation not confirmed

7 M. Vera

2 A. Arcando

5 I. Castro

3 V. Duco

4 G. Guzman

9 P. Oballes

10 F. Quiroga

11 M. Rivadero

8 M. Rosales

6 A. Suarez

1 F. Perez

Coach · Martin Leva

Substitutes

12 · F. Herrera

13 · M. Mansilla

14 · N. Castro

15 · N. Bergalli

16 · A. Mainero

17 · M. Martinez

18 · G. Lopez

19 · T. Pagliaricci

20 · F. Schiavoni

Our number · fundacion amigos winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

47% The market47%

Us47%

~~Market~~47%

We make Fundacion Amigos a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fundacion amigos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fundacion Amigos win	47%	47%	0
Draw	32%	32%	0
Atenas win	21%	21%	0
Over 2.5 goals	29%	33%	−4
Both teams to score	35%	38%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	12%	16%	−3
Fundacion Amigos or draw	79%	79%	0
Fundacion Amigos clean sheet	50%	–	–
Atenas clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.7%

0123450 16.1 10.3 3.7 1 17.7 12.7 4.3 2 10.6 7.2 2.5 3 4.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fundacion Amigos down, Atenas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,178 Torneo Federal A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.9% of games this season, across 472 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fundacion Amigos at home: 0.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Atenas away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Fundacion Amigos, 0.69 for Atenas. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ATE 1–3 FUN · FUN 4–0 ATE

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A

FUNDACION AMIGOS

LWWDWD0–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

ATENAS

WLWLLD1–0 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Martin Formosa	26	+16	51
2	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	26	+14	50
3	Alvarado	26	+19	46
4	Douglas Haig	26	+12	43
5	Cipolletti	26	+11	43
6	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	29	+7	43
7	Sol de América	26	+3	43
8	Defensores de Belgrano VR	28	+5	41
9	Kimberley Mar del Plata	25	+9	40
10	Argentino Monte Maíz	25	+6	37
11	9 de Julio Rafaela	26	+4	37
12	Atenas	26	0	37
13	Fundacion Amigos	25	+6	36
14	Sportivo Las Parejas	26	+4	36
15	Sportivo Belgrano	26	+1	35
16	San Martín Mendoza	26	−3	35
17	Costa Brava	25	+3	34
18	Deportivo Rincon	26	+2	34
19	Villa Mitre	24	+7	33
20	Boca Unidos	24	+1	33
21	Atletico Escobar	26	−13	33
22	Defensores de Vilelas	25	−2	32
23	El Linqueño	26	−3	32
24	Gimnasia Concepción	26	+1	31
25	Juventud Unida Univ.	25	+1	31
26	Bartolomé Mitre	24	−1	31
27	Independiente De Chivilcoy	26	−4	31
28	Germinal de Rawson	25	−4	31
29	Juventud Antoniana	25	0	30
30	Sarmiento de La Banda	24	−6	30
31	Huracan Las Heras	25	−10	30
32	Guillermo Brown	25	−8	28
33	Circulo Deportivo	26	−9	25
34	Sol de Mayo	26	−11	25
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	24	−22	21
36	Tucuman Central	24	−18	19
37	Santamarina	25	−18	19