El Linqueño v Douglas Haig prediction · Torneo Federal A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:02

El Linqueño 0–0 Douglas Haig EL LINQUEÑO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said El Linqueño win~~38%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.686

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.652

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said El Linqueño win at 38%.
2′Much as we predicted: El Linqueño was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–32–29
7′Much as we predicted: El Linqueño was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–33–29
65′We said El Linqueño at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–0 · 20–63–16
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' El Linqueño win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' El Linqueño win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Draw 33%)
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' El Linqueño win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was El Linqueño win 28%)
68′🟥 RED CARD · 67' Douglas Haig
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' El Linqueño
86′A red card for Douglas Haig on 65′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 4–92–4
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' El Linqueño win: 38% at kick-off, 4% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' El Linqueño win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' El Linqueño win: 38% at kick-off, 4% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' El Linqueño win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' El Linqueño win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' El Linqueño win: 38% at kick-off, 4% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' El Linqueño win: 38% at kick-off, 4% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' El Linqueño win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
90′A red card for Douglas Haig on 65′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' El Linqueño win: 38% at kick-off, 4% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' El Linqueño win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
FTFULL TIME El Linqueño 0–0 Douglas Haig
FTEl Linqueño 0–0 Douglas Haig · El Linqueño win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

El Linqueño win38%

Draw33%

Douglas Haig win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:30

VenueLeonardo Costa

Line-ups

El Linqueño

Douglas Haig

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

El Linqueño

Douglas Haig

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Douglas Haig	26	+12	43
23	El Linqueño	26	−3	32

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

El Linqueño

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Cuesta

7 M. Pavon

6 M. Ochoa

2 D. Meza

10 F. Meli

3 A. Mc Cormick

11 J. Malinauskas

9 J. C. Gutierrez

5 J. Garcia Pereyra

4 A. Ramos

8 B. Colombi

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. Atencio

13 · J. Coria

14 · M. Ramos

15 · F. Ferraro

16 · L. Macias

17 · L. Nunez

18 · J. Sequeyra

19 · B. Gonzalez

20 · J. Quijada

Douglas Haig

Formation not confirmed

10 G. Pereira

6 N. Canela

11 L. Cuello

7 M. Gimenez

2 L. Lopez

4 B. Magnago

3 M. Mauri

5 B. Meza

8 L. Ojeda

9 J. Palacio

1 G. Ratalin

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · F. Perrone

13 · G. Rossi

14 · M. Caballo

15 · G. L. Baglivo

16 · C. Arriola

17 · E. Tus

18 · M. Schlotthauer

19 · S. Fiorito

20 · L. Rosciano

Our number · el linqueño winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

38% The market30%

Us38%

~~Market~~30%

We make El Linqueño a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · el linqueño win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
El Linqueño win	38%	30%	+8
Draw	33%	34%	−2
Douglas Haig win	29%	36%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	29%	34%	−5
Both teams to score	37%	42%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	56%	59%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	12%	18%	−6
El Linqueño or draw	71%	64%	+7
El Linqueño clean sheet	43%	–	–
Douglas Haig clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.9%

0123450 15.9 12.6 5.6 1 15.2 13.5 5.6 2 8.0 6.7 2.9 3 2.8 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+El Linqueño down, Douglas Haig across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,178 Torneo Federal A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.9% of games this season, across 472 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 1.73 goals a meeting; 2 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

El Linqueño at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Douglas Haig away: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for El Linqueño, 0.85 for Douglas Haig. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.73

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 11

~~Both scored~~3 of 11

~~Last meetings~~ELL 2–0 DOU · DOU 1–0 ELL · DOU 1–0 ELL · ELL 2–3 DOU

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A

EL LINQUEÑO

DDDLWW0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

DOUGLAS HAIG

DWWLWD0–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Martin Formosa	26	+16	51
2	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	26	+14	50
3	Alvarado	26	+19	46
4	Douglas Haig	26	+12	43
5	Cipolletti	26	+11	43
6	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	29	+7	43
7	Sol de América	26	+3	43
8	Defensores de Belgrano VR	28	+5	41
9	Kimberley Mar del Plata	25	+9	40
10	Argentino Monte Maíz	25	+6	37
11	9 de Julio Rafaela	26	+4	37
12	Atenas	26	0	37
13	Fundacion Amigos	25	+6	36
14	Sportivo Las Parejas	26	+4	36
15	Sportivo Belgrano	26	+1	35
16	San Martín Mendoza	26	−3	35
17	Costa Brava	25	+3	34
18	Deportivo Rincon	26	+2	34
19	Villa Mitre	24	+7	33
20	Boca Unidos	24	+1	33
21	Atletico Escobar	26	−13	33
22	Defensores de Vilelas	25	−2	32
23	El Linqueño	26	−3	32
24	Gimnasia Concepción	26	+1	31
25	Juventud Unida Univ.	25	+1	31
26	Bartolomé Mitre	24	−1	31
27	Independiente De Chivilcoy	26	−4	31
28	Germinal de Rawson	25	−4	31
29	Juventud Antoniana	25	0	30
30	Sarmiento de La Banda	24	−6	30
31	Huracan Las Heras	25	−10	30
32	Guillermo Brown	25	−8	28
33	Circulo Deportivo	26	−9	25
34	Sol de Mayo	26	−11	25
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	24	−22	21
36	Tucuman Central	24	−18	19
37	Santamarina	25	−18	19