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Deportivo Rincon v Kimberley Mar del Plata

Deportivo Rincon

0–1Full time

Kimberley Mar del Plata

Torneo Federal A · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Gremio de Los Petroleros

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Deportivo Rincon 0–1 Kimberley Mar del Plata DEPORTIVO RINCON WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Rincon win~~45%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.919

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.889

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Rincon win at 45%.
4′KICK-OFF Deportivo Rincon v Kimberley Mar del Plata
5′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Rincon 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–33–22
6′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Rincon 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–34–22
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Rincon 0–0 Kimberley Mar del Plata
50′SECOND HALF Deportivo Rincon 0–0 Kimberley Mar del Plata
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Deportivo Rincon 0–1 Kimberley Mar del Plata
80′⚽ GOAL · 73' Deportivo Rincon 0–1 Kimberley Mar del Plata
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Rincon 0–1 Kimberley Mar del Plata
FTDeportivo Rincon 0–1 Kimberley Mar del Plata · Deportivo Rincon win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Deportivo Rincon win45%

Draw33%

Kimberley Mar del Plata win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:00

Venue · Estadio Gremio de Los Petroleros

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Deportivo Rincon

Formation not confirmed

6 J. Albertinazzi

10 C. Avila

5 D. Carrasco

8 B. Di Bello

9 M. Dominguez

2 R. Herrera

11 F. Miguel

7 A. I. Oyola

3 L. Punet

4 C. Valvuena

1 A. Sanchez

Coach · Pablo Castro

Kimberley Mar del Plata

Formation not confirmed

2 A. Vazquez

7 E. Ullua

8 L. Tello

11 F. Russo

9 R. Rios

10 M. Miori

3 F. Manas

4 T. Loscalso

5 A. De Gaetani

6 A. Aquino

1 N. Baez

Coach · Mariano Mignini

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Rincon

Formation not confirmed

6 J. Albertinazzi

10 C. Avila

5 D. Carrasco

8 B. Di Bello

9 M. Dominguez

2 R. Herrera

11 F. Miguel

7 A. I. Oyola

3 L. Punet

4 C. Valvuena

1 A. Sanchez

Coach · Pablo Castro

Kimberley Mar del Plata

Formation not confirmed

2 A. Vazquez

7 E. Ullua

8 L. Tello

11 F. Russo

9 R. Rios

10 M. Miori

3 F. Manas

4 T. Loscalso

5 A. De Gaetani

6 A. Aquino

1 N. Baez

Coach · Mariano Mignini

Our number · deportivo rincon winPublished 10 Oct 20:07

45% The market44%

Us45%

~~Market~~44%

We make Deportivo Rincon a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportivo rincon win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Rincon win	45%	44%	+1
Draw	33%	33%	0
Kimberley Mar del Plata win	22%	23%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	26%	34%	−7
Both teams to score	33%	40%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	53%	59%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	11%	17%	−6
Deportivo Rincon or draw	78%	77%	+1
Deportivo Rincon clean sheet	51%	–	–
Kimberley Mar del Plata clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.2%

0123450 17.7 11.1 3.9 1 18.2 12.7 4.2 2 10.2 6.8 2.3 3 3.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Rincon down, Kimberley Mar del Plata across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,174 Torneo Federal A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.0% of games this season, across 468 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Rincon at home: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kimberley Mar del Plata away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Deportivo Rincon, 0.67 for Kimberley Mar del Plata. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~DEP 3–1 KIM · DEP 2–2 KIM · KIM 0–1 DEP · KIM 2–0 DEP

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A

DEPORTIVO RINCON

LWDDLW0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

KIMBERLEY MAR DEL PLATA

WLLWDD3–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Martin Formosa	26	+16	51
2	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	26	+14	50
3	Alvarado	26	+19	46
4	Douglas Haig	26	+12	43
5	Cipolletti	26	+11	43
6	Sol de América	26	+3	43
7	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	28	+7	42
8	Defensores de Belgrano VR	28	+5	41
9	Kimberley Mar del Plata	24	+8	37
10	9 de Julio Rafaela	26	+4	37
11	Atenas	26	0	37
12	Fundacion Amigos	25	+6	36
13	Sportivo Las Parejas	26	+4	36
14	Sportivo Belgrano	26	+1	35
15	San Martín Mendoza	25	−1	35
16	Argentino Monte Maíz	24	+4	34
17	Deportivo Rincon	25	+3	34
18	Costa Brava	25	+3	34
19	Villa Mitre	24	+7	33
20	Boca Unidos	24	+1	33
21	Atletico Escobar	26	−13	33
22	El Linqueño	26	−3	32
23	Gimnasia Concepción	26	+1	31
24	Juventud Unida Univ.	25	+1	31
25	Bartolomé Mitre	24	−1	31
26	Defensores de Vilelas	24	−2	31
27	Independiente De Chivilcoy	26	−4	31
28	Germinal de Rawson	25	−4	31
29	Sarmiento de La Banda	24	−6	30
30	Huracan Las Heras	24	−7	30
31	Guillermo Brown	25	−8	28
32	Juventud Antoniana	24	−3	27
33	Circulo Deportivo	26	−9	25
34	Sol de Mayo	26	−11	25
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	24	−22	21
36	Tucuman Central	24	−18	19
37	Santamarina	25	−18	19