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Defensores de Vilelas v Gimnasia Chivilcoy

Defensores de Vilelas

1–1Full time

Gimnasia Chivilcoy

Torneo Federal A · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Defensores de Vilelas 1–1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy DEFENSORES DE VILELAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Defensores de Vilelas win~~43%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.752

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.731

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Defensores de Vilelas win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Defensores de Vilelas was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–29–28
1′KICK-OFF Defensores de Vilelas v Gimnasia Chivilcoy
2′Much as we predicted: Defensores de Vilelas was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–29–28
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Gimnasia Chivilcoy
40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Defensores de Vilelas
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Defensores de Vilelas win 34%)
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Defensores de Vilelas win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Draw 29%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Defensores de Vilelas win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Draw 29%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Defensores de Vilelas win 34%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Gimnasia Chivilcoy
45′HALF-TIME Defensores de Vilelas 0–0 Gimnasia Chivilcoy
46′SECOND HALF Defensores de Vilelas 0–0 Gimnasia Chivilcoy
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Defensores de Vilelas
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Defensores de Vilelas 1–0 Gimnasia Chivilcoy
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Defensores de Vilelas 1–0 Gimnasia Chivilcoy
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Defensores de Vilelas 1–1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy · G. Carballo
80′⚽ GOAL · 78' Defensores de Vilelas 1–1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy
FTFULL TIME Defensores de Vilelas 1–1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy
FTDefensores de Vilelas 1–1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy · Defensores de Vilelas win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Defensores de Vilelas win43%

Draw30%

Gimnasia Chivilcoy win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Defensores de Vilelas

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Ledesma

7 L. Remotti

10 R. Montenegro

3 N. Molina

11 L. Larrasabal

4 F. Fernandez

6 F. Farias

9 G. Carballo

8 G. Canete

2 J. Turraca

5 M. Acevedo

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Ferreyra

13 · F. Lallana

14 · L. Navarro

15 · A. Vargas

16 · I. Montenegro

17 · G. Moreno

18 · L. Niz

19 · J. Canario

20 · G. Ojeda

Gimnasia Chivilcoy

Formation not confirmed

5 A. Zarate

3 X. D'Amelio

4 M. Dauria

10 P. Ferreira

2 F. Fiol

8 M. Gutierrez

7 R. Medina

9 E. Morales

11 M. Salvaggio

6 L. Samaniego

1 N. Dormisch

Coach · Alberto Salvaggio

Substitutes

12 · N. Ilchischen

13 · A. Guglielmo

14 · E. Bassi

15 · J. Millan

16 · V. Fernandez

17 · A. M. Salinardi

18 · L. Almada

19 · B. Visser

20 · N. Ortiz

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Defensores de Vilelas

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Ledesma

7 L. Remotti

10 R. Montenegro

3 N. Molina

11 L. Larrasabal

4 F. Fernandez

6 F. Farias

9 G. Carballo

8 G. Canete

2 J. Turraca

5 M. Acevedo

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Ferreyra

13 · F. Lallana

14 · L. Navarro

15 · A. Vargas

16 · I. Montenegro

17 · G. Moreno

18 · L. Niz

19 · J. Canario

20 · G. Ojeda

Gimnasia Chivilcoy

Formation not confirmed

5 A. Zarate

3 X. D'Amelio

4 M. Dauria

10 P. Ferreira

2 F. Fiol

8 M. Gutierrez

7 R. Medina

9 E. Morales

11 M. Salvaggio

6 L. Samaniego

1 N. Dormisch

Coach · Alberto Salvaggio

Substitutes

12 · N. Ilchischen

13 · A. Guglielmo

14 · E. Bassi

15 · J. Millan

16 · V. Fernandez

17 · A. M. Salinardi

18 · L. Almada

19 · B. Visser

20 · N. Ortiz

Our number · defensores de vilelas winPublished 10 Oct 20:07

43% The market27%

Us43%

~~Market~~27%

We make Defensores de Vilelas a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · defensores de vilelas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Defensores de Vilelas win	43%	27%	+15
Draw	30%	31%	−1
Gimnasia Chivilcoy win	27%	42%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	37%	39%	−2
Both teams to score	43%	46%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	64%	63%	0
Over 3.5 goals	17%	20%	−3
Defensores de Vilelas or draw	73%	58%	+14
Defensores de Vilelas clean sheet	40%	–	–
Gimnasia Chivilcoy clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 12.2 10.3 5.0 1 13.8 13.3 6.0 2 8.8 8.0 3.7 3 3.6 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Defensores de Vilelas down, Gimnasia Chivilcoy across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,174 Torneo Federal A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.0% of games this season, across 468 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Defensores de Vilelas at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gimnasia Chivilcoy away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Defensores de Vilelas, 0.92 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A

DEFENSORES DE VILELAS

WLDLWD4–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–3

GIMNASIA CHIVILCOY

WWWDLL1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Martin Formosa	26	+16	51
2	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	26	+14	50
3	Alvarado	26	+19	46
4	Douglas Haig	26	+12	43
5	Cipolletti	26	+11	43
6	Sol de América	26	+3	43
7	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	28	+7	42
8	Defensores de Belgrano VR	28	+5	41
9	Kimberley Mar del Plata	24	+8	37
10	9 de Julio Rafaela	26	+4	37
11	Atenas	26	0	37
12	Fundacion Amigos	25	+6	36
13	Sportivo Las Parejas	26	+4	36
14	Sportivo Belgrano	26	+1	35
15	San Martín Mendoza	25	−1	35
16	Argentino Monte Maíz	24	+4	34
17	Deportivo Rincon	25	+3	34
18	Costa Brava	25	+3	34
19	Villa Mitre	24	+7	33
20	Boca Unidos	24	+1	33
21	Atletico Escobar	26	−13	33
22	El Linqueño	26	−3	32
23	Gimnasia Concepción	26	+1	31
24	Juventud Unida Univ.	25	+1	31
25	Bartolomé Mitre	24	−1	31
26	Defensores de Vilelas	24	−2	31
27	Independiente De Chivilcoy	26	−4	31
28	Germinal de Rawson	25	−4	31
29	Sarmiento de La Banda	24	−6	30
30	Huracan Las Heras	24	−7	30
31	Guillermo Brown	25	−8	28
32	Juventud Antoniana	24	−3	27
33	Circulo Deportivo	26	−9	25
34	Sol de Mayo	26	−11	25
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	24	−22	21
36	Tucuman Central	24	−18	19
37	Santamarina	25	−18	19