Defensores de Belgrano VR v Sportivo Las Parejas prediction · Torneo Federal A

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31

Defensores de Belgrano VR 0–1 Sportivo Las Parejas DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO VR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Defensores de Belgrano VR win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.968

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Defensores de Belgrano VR win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Defensores de Belgrano VR was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–31–20
1′KICK-OFF Defensores de Belgrano VR v Sportivo Las Parejas
3′Defensores de Belgrano VR find the net on 2′. 0–0 · 48–32–20
11′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Defensores de Belgrano VR
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Defensores de Belgrano VR win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Defensores de Belgrano VR win 38%)
40′We said Defensores de Belgrano VR at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–45–18
41′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Sportivo Las Parejas
45′HALF-TIME Defensores de Belgrano VR 0–0 Sportivo Las Parejas
46′SECOND HALF Defensores de Belgrano VR 0–0 Sportivo Las Parejas
48′We said Defensores de Belgrano VR at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–17
85′We said Defensores de Belgrano VR at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–0 · 7–89–4
85′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Sportivo Las Parejas
85′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Defensores de Belgrano VR
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Defensores de Belgrano VR win: 49% at kick-off, 7% now
90′We said Defensores de Belgrano VR at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Defensores de Belgrano VR 0–1 Sportivo Las Parejas
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Sportivo Las Parejas win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
92′Sportivo Las Parejas find the net on 90′. 0–1. 0–1 · 0–3–97
FTFULL TIME Defensores de Belgrano VR 0–1 Sportivo Las Parejas
FTDefensores de Belgrano VR 0–1 Sportivo Las Parejas · Defensores de Belgrano VR win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Defensores de Belgrano VR are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Defensores de Belgrano VR 49%, draw 31%, Sportivo Las Parejas 20%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Defensores de Belgrano VR v Sportivo Las ParejasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Defensores de Belgrano VR win49%

Draw31%

Sportivo Las Parejas win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:00

RoundRound of 32

VenueSalomon Boeseldin

Line-ups

Defensores de Belgrano VR

Sportivo Las Parejas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Defensores de Belgrano VR

Sportivo Las Parejas

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Torneo Federal A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Defensores de Belgrano VR	18	+4	27
15	Sportivo Las Parejas	18	−1	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Defensores de Belgrano VR

Formation not confirmed

2 J. Avalos

7 T. Bacas

11 Jeremias Bertacin

8 J. Cartechini

5 L. Gaitan

6 Federico Gay

3 Franco Pezzani

4 alexander ponce

10 Lautaro Principiano

9 E. Roige

1 Kevin Vizgarra

Coach · –

Sportivo Las Parejas

Formation not confirmed

3 A. Zanoni

5 J. Valenzuela

4 J. Taverna

11 G. Schonfeld

6 A. Schmidt

10 L. Rolón

7 A. Martínez

8 L. Laborie

9 I. González

2 Marcos Fissore

1 F. San Juan

Coach · L. Baldino

Substitutes

15 · Nicolás Villagra

13 · E. Suárez

18 · V. Martinez

17 · A. Maciel

14 · martiniano irribarria

12 · J. Godoy

16 · Alan Galeano

Our number · defensores de belgrano vr winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Defensores de Belgrano VR a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Defensores de Belgrano VR v Sportivo Las Parejas~~1.22 – 0.68

~~Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 16 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 27 v 24~~7 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Defensores de Belgrano VR win	49%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Sportivo Las Parejas win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	57%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Defensores de Belgrano VR or draw	80%	–	–
Defensores de Belgrano VR clean sheet	51%	–	–
Sportivo Las Parejas clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.8%

0123450 15.8 9.8 3.5 1 17.8 12.6 4.1 2 11.1 7.4 2.5 3 4.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Defensores de Belgrano VR down, Sportivo Las Parejas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,188 Torneo Federal A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.5% of games this season, across 482 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Defensores de Belgrano VR at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sportivo Las Parejas away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Defensores de Belgrano VR, 0.68 for Sportivo Las Parejas. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–1 DEF · SPO 1–1 DEF · DEF 2–0 SPO · SPO 2–3 DEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 16 Aug

DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO VR

LWWDLD0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

SPORTIVO LAS PAREJAS

DLWWWD0–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	16	+9	31
2	Douglas Haig	18	+7	31
3	Sportivo Belgrano	18	+12	30
4	San Martin Formosa	16	+6	30
5	Alvarado	16	+12	27
6	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	18	+5	27
7	Defensores de Belgrano VR	18	+4	27
8	Kimberley Mar del Plata	16	+6	26
9	Bartolomé Mitre	16	+6	26
10	Sol de América	16	+5	26
11	Juventud Antoniana	16	+8	25
12	Cipolletti	16	+4	25
13	Sarmiento de La Banda	16	+2	25
14	9 de Julio Rafaela	18	+1	25
15	Sportivo Las Parejas	18	−1	24
16	Villa Mitre	16	+6	23
17	Argentino Monte Maíz	16	+4	23
18	Atenas	16	−1	23
19	Huracan Las Heras	16	−2	23
20	Atletico Escobar	18	−8	22
21	Fundacion Amigos	16	+3	21
22	Deportivo Rincon	16	−3	19
23	San Martín Mendoza	16	−4	19
24	Defensores de Vilelas	16	−5	19
25	Independiente De Chivilcoy	18	−7	19
26	El Linqueño	18	−7	19
27	Costa Brava	16	−1	18
28	Sol de Mayo	16	−3	18
29	Boca Unidos	16	−6	18
30	Germinal de Rawson	16	−7	18
31	Juventud Unida Univ.	16	0	17
32	Tucuman Central	16	−5	17
33	Gimnasia Concepción	18	−6	17
34	Guillermo Brown	16	−7	17
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	16	−11	15
36	Santamarina	16	−8	13
37	Circulo Deportivo	16	−8	13