Costa Brava v Villa Mitre prediction · Torneo Federal A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:02

Costa Brava 1–1 Villa Mitre COSTA BRAVA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Costa Brava win~~38%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.619

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.645

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Costa Brava win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Costa Brava was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–36–26
22′Villa Mitre find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
30′Villa Mitre find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–4
45′We published Costa Brava at 38%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
62′We published Costa Brava at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
83′thiago perez scores for Villa Mitre on 65′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 6–89–5
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Costa Brava win: 38% at kick-off, 6% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Costa Brava win 6%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Costa Brava win: 38% at kick-off, 81% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Costa Brava win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Villa Mitre
FTFULL TIME Costa Brava 1–1 Villa Mitre
FTCosta Brava 1–1 Villa Mitre · Costa Brava win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Costa Brava win38%

Draw36%

Villa Mitre win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:30

VenueEstadio Nuevo Pacaembu

Line-ups

Costa Brava

Villa Mitre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Costa Brava

Villa Mitre

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Costa Brava	25	+3	34
19	Villa Mitre	24	+7	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Costa Brava

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Silva

7 J. Vivani

8 M. Rivas

3 N. Pacheco

10 L. Ibarra

9 L. Gutierrez

11 T. Gomez

4 J. Garoni

5 A. Alles

6 B. Alferez

2 P. Aguero

Coach · –

Villa Mitre

Formation not confirmed

1 J. P. Mazza

3 M. Pinto

8 T. Perez

10 M. Paez

7 L. Monti

9 T. Ibarra

4 M. Escobar

5 N. Cavagnero

6 S. Bacigalupe

11 V. Ayala

2 J. Almada

Coach · Diego Cochas

Substitutes

12 · M. Alcaraz

13 · U. Olguin

14 · D. Avit

15 · M. Aguirre

16 · V. Valeri

17 · M. Tunessi

18 · G. G. Cordoba

19 · C. Valencia

20 · S. Gomez

Our number · costa brava winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

38% The market34%

Us38%

~~Market~~34%

We make Costa Brava a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · costa brava win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Costa Brava win	38%	34%	+4
Draw	36%	34%	+2
Villa Mitre win	25%	31%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	21%	30%	−10
Both teams to score	29%	39%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	47%	55%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	8%	15%	−7
Costa Brava or draw	75%	69%	+6
Costa Brava clean sheet	52%	–	–
Villa Mitre clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 21.6%

0123450 21.6 13.6 4.7 1 18.3 12.6 4.1 2 8.4 5.5 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Costa Brava down, Villa Mitre across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,178 Torneo Federal A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.9% of games this season, across 472 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Costa Brava at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Villa Mitre away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Costa Brava, 0.67 for Villa Mitre. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~COS 1–0 VIL

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A

COSTA BRAVA

WWLDWW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

VILLA MITRE

LDDWLD0–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Martin Formosa	26	+16	51
2	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	26	+14	50
3	Alvarado	26	+19	46
4	Douglas Haig	26	+12	43
5	Cipolletti	26	+11	43
6	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	29	+7	43
7	Sol de América	26	+3	43
8	Defensores de Belgrano VR	28	+5	41
9	Kimberley Mar del Plata	25	+9	40
10	Argentino Monte Maíz	25	+6	37
11	9 de Julio Rafaela	26	+4	37
12	Atenas	26	0	37
13	Fundacion Amigos	25	+6	36
14	Sportivo Las Parejas	26	+4	36
15	Sportivo Belgrano	26	+1	35
16	San Martín Mendoza	26	−3	35
17	Costa Brava	25	+3	34
18	Deportivo Rincon	26	+2	34
19	Villa Mitre	24	+7	33
20	Boca Unidos	24	+1	33
21	Atletico Escobar	26	−13	33
22	Defensores de Vilelas	25	−2	32
23	El Linqueño	26	−3	32
24	Gimnasia Concepción	26	+1	31
25	Juventud Unida Univ.	25	+1	31
26	Bartolomé Mitre	24	−1	31
27	Independiente De Chivilcoy	26	−4	31
28	Germinal de Rawson	25	−4	31
29	Juventud Antoniana	25	0	30
30	Sarmiento de La Banda	24	−6	30
31	Huracan Las Heras	25	−10	30
32	Guillermo Brown	25	−8	28
33	Circulo Deportivo	26	−9	25
34	Sol de Mayo	26	−11	25
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	24	−22	21
36	Tucuman Central	24	−18	19
37	Santamarina	25	−18	19