Cipolletti v San Martin Formosa prediction · Torneo Federal A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CipollettiDrawSan Martin Formosa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cipolletti 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cipolletti are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cipolletti 46%, draw 29%, San Martin Formosa 25%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Cipolletti v San Martin FormosaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Cipolletti win46%

Draw29%

San Martin Formosa win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:00

RoundFinal

Venue17 De Octubre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cipolletti

San Martin Formosa

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Torneo Federal A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	San Martin Formosa	16	+6	30
12	Cipolletti	16	+4	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cipolletti winFirst published 19 Oct 15:32 · updated 23 Oct 09:27 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Cipolletti a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cipolletti v San Martin Formosa~~1.30 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 25 v 30~~12 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cipolletti win

Published at 55%, 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cipolletti win	46%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
San Martin Formosa win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Cipolletti or draw	75%	–	–
Cipolletti clean sheet	42%	–	–
San Martin Formosa clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 11.9 9.6 4.4 1 14.3 13.1 5.6 2 9.5 8.3 3.6 3 4.2 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cipolletti down, San Martin Formosa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,202 Torneo Federal A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.6% of games this season, across 496 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022.

Home and away form

Cipolletti at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). San Martin Formosa away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Cipolletti, 0.88 for San Martin Formosa. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 13 Sept

CIPOLLETTI

WWLWWD1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 6–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

SAN MARTIN FORMOSA

WDWDDW3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	16	+9	31
2	Douglas Haig	18	+7	31
3	Sportivo Belgrano	18	+12	30
4	San Martin Formosa	16	+6	30
5	Alvarado	16	+12	27
6	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	18	+5	27
7	Defensores de Belgrano VR	18	+4	27
8	Kimberley Mar del Plata	16	+6	26
9	Bartolomé Mitre	16	+6	26
10	Sol de América	16	+5	26
11	Juventud Antoniana	16	+8	25
12	Cipolletti	16	+4	25
13	Sarmiento de La Banda	16	+2	25
14	9 de Julio Rafaela	18	+1	25
15	Sportivo Las Parejas	18	−1	24
16	Villa Mitre	16	+6	23
17	Argentino Monte Maíz	16	+4	23
18	Atenas	16	−1	23
19	Huracan Las Heras	16	−2	23
20	Atletico Escobar	18	−8	22
21	Fundacion Amigos	16	+3	21
22	Deportivo Rincon	16	−3	19
23	San Martín Mendoza	16	−4	19
24	Defensores de Vilelas	16	−5	19
25	Independiente De Chivilcoy	18	−7	19
26	El Linqueño	18	−7	19
27	Costa Brava	16	−1	18
28	Sol de Mayo	16	−3	18
29	Boca Unidos	16	−6	18
30	Germinal de Rawson	16	−7	18
31	Juventud Unida Univ.	16	0	17
32	Tucuman Central	16	−5	17
33	Gimnasia Concepción	18	−6	17
34	Guillermo Brown	16	−7	17
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	16	−11	15
36	Santamarina	16	−8	13
37	Circulo Deportivo	16	−8	13