Cipolletti v Alvarado prediction · Torneo Federal A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:02

Cipolletti 1–0 Alvarado CIPOLLETTI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Cipolletti win~~46%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.439

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.395

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cipolletti win at 46%.
3′Much as we predicted: Cipolletti was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–31–23
9′Much as we predicted: Cipolletti was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–32–23
45′Alvarado are down to ten from 29′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 34–46–19
45′We said Cipolletti at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–19
51′Alvarado are down to ten from 29′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 32–50–18
72′We said Cipolletti at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
80′We said Cipolletti at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–0 · 12–81–7
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Cipolletti win: 46% at kick-off, 12% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Cipolletti win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
90′85′ and it is 1–0: Cristian Gonzalez on the scoresheet for Cipolletti. 1–0 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Cipolletti win: 46% at kick-off, 12% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Cipolletti win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Cipolletti win: 46% at kick-off, 100% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Cipolletti win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Cipolletti win 12%)
FTFULL TIME Cipolletti 1–0 Alvarado
FTCipolletti 1–0 Alvarado · Cipolletti win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cipolletti win46%

Draw31%

Alvarado win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:30

VenueLa Visera de Cemento

Line-ups

Cipolletti

Alvarado

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cipolletti

Alvarado

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Alvarado	26	+19	46
5	Cipolletti	26	+11	43

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cipolletti

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Crespo

4 Y. Piro

5 M. Perez

7 M. Peralta

6 V. Manchafico

11 G. Lucero

2 C. Gonzalez

3 N. T. Garcia

8 A. Almiron

10 L. Vella

9 F. Acevedo

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · A. Veron

13 · N. Trejo

14 · B. Garcia

15 · L. Gutierrez

16 · M. Lopez

17 · F. Pettineroli

18 · B. Obregon

19 · E. Vallejos

20 · N. Luna

Alvarado

Formation not confirmed

11 N. Speck

2 F. Centurion

9 G. Cervera

8 L. Chiozza

5 T. Federico

4 T. Fernandez

6 C. Gorgerino

10 S. Gutierrez

7 R. Makarte

3 L. Nunez

1 E. Bilbao

Coach · Pablo Martel

Substitutes

12 · A. Zapata

13 · T. Berra

14 · L. Echeverria

15 · P. J. Hofstetter

16 · M. Miori

17 · F. Pinoni

18 · M. Ostachi

19 · G. Sosa

20 · M. Perez

Our number · cipolletti winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

46% The market49%

Us46%

~~Market~~49%

We make Cipolletti a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cipolletti win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cipolletti win	46%	49%	−3
Draw	31%	31%	−1
Alvarado win	23%	20%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	32%	31%	+1
Both teams to score	38%	34%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	59%	57%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	14%	15%	−1
Cipolletti or draw	77%	80%	−4
Cipolletti clean sheet	46%	–	–
Alvarado clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.2%

0123450 14.3 10.3 4.1 1 16.2 13.0 4.9 2 10.0 7.6 3.0 3 4.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cipolletti down, Alvarado across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,178 Torneo Federal A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.9% of games this season, across 472 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cipolletti at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Alvarado away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Cipolletti, 0.77 for Alvarado. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CIP 1–0 ALV

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A

CIPOLLETTI

DDWWLW2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 6–1

ALVARADO

WWLDDW2–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Martin Formosa	26	+16	51
2	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	26	+14	50
3	Alvarado	26	+19	46
4	Douglas Haig	26	+12	43
5	Cipolletti	26	+11	43
6	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	29	+7	43
7	Sol de América	26	+3	43
8	Defensores de Belgrano VR	28	+5	41
9	Kimberley Mar del Plata	25	+9	40
10	Argentino Monte Maíz	25	+6	37
11	9 de Julio Rafaela	26	+4	37
12	Atenas	26	0	37
13	Fundacion Amigos	25	+6	36
14	Sportivo Las Parejas	26	+4	36
15	Sportivo Belgrano	26	+1	35
16	San Martín Mendoza	26	−3	35
17	Costa Brava	25	+3	34
18	Deportivo Rincon	26	+2	34
19	Villa Mitre	24	+7	33
20	Boca Unidos	24	+1	33
21	Atletico Escobar	26	−13	33
22	Defensores de Vilelas	25	−2	32
23	El Linqueño	26	−3	32
24	Gimnasia Concepción	26	+1	31
25	Juventud Unida Univ.	25	+1	31
26	Bartolomé Mitre	24	−1	31
27	Independiente De Chivilcoy	26	−4	31
28	Germinal de Rawson	25	−4	31
29	Juventud Antoniana	25	0	30
30	Sarmiento de La Banda	24	−6	30
31	Huracan Las Heras	25	−10	30
32	Guillermo Brown	25	−8	28
33	Circulo Deportivo	26	−9	25
34	Sol de Mayo	26	−11	25
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	24	−22	21
36	Tucuman Central	24	−18	19
37	Santamarina	25	−18	19