Boca Unidos v Bartolomé Mitre prediction · Torneo Federal A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Boca Unidos 1–0 Bartolomé Mitre BOCA UNIDOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Boca Unidos win~~47%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.421

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.377

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Boca Unidos win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Boca Unidos 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–23
45′We said Boca Unidos at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–45–19
61′We said Boca Unidos at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–57–16
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 36% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 36% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 36% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 36% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 36% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
69′We said Boca Unidos at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–0 · 22–65–13
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 36% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Boca Unidos
82′We said Boca Unidos at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–0 · 10–84–6
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 10% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 22% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 10% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 22% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 22% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 10% now
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Boca Unidos 1–0 Bartolomé Mitre
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 10% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Boca Unidos win: 47% at kick-off, 22% now
87′⚽ GOAL · 85' Boca Unidos 1–0 Bartolomé Mitre
FTFULL TIME Boca Unidos 1–0 Bartolomé Mitre
FTBoca Unidos 1–0 Bartolomé Mitre · Boca Unidos win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Boca Unidos win47%

Draw30%

Bartolomé Mitre win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

VenueEstadio Jose Antonio Romero Feris

Line-ups

Boca Unidos

Bartolomé Mitre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Boca Unidos

Bartolomé Mitre

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
20	Boca Unidos	24	+1	33
26	Bartolomé Mitre	24	−1	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Boca Unidos

Formation not confirmed

9 A. Alfano

2 A. Donatti

11 K. Fernandez

4 J. Fuyana

5 L. Luduena

7 A. Medina

10 M. Mino

3 S. Pavon

6 A. Schweizer

8 T. Villanueva

1 L. Ojeda

Coach · –

Bartolomé Mitre

Formation not confirmed

6 R. Rodriguez

4 K. Lukoski

9 N. Golomba

10 J. Zarza

2 M. Espindola

5 M. A. Comes

3 L. Canzoniero

11 A. Caceres

7 L. Arregui

8 L. Arraya

1 G. Bachke

Coach · –

Our number · boca unidos winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

47% The market50%

Us47%

~~Market~~50%

We make Boca Unidos a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · boca unidos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Boca Unidos win	47%	50%	−3
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Bartolomé Mitre win	23%	21%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	34%	38%	−5
Both teams to score	39%	43%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	61%	62%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	15%	20%	−4
Boca Unidos or draw	77%	79%	−2
Boca Unidos clean sheet	46%	–	–
Bartolomé Mitre clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 13.5 9.8 4.0 1 15.9 12.9 4.9 2 10.2 7.9 3.1 3 4.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Boca Unidos down, Bartolomé Mitre across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,178 Torneo Federal A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.9% of games this season, across 472 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Boca Unidos at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bartolomé Mitre away: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Boca Unidos, 0.79 for Bartolomé Mitre. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~BOC 2–1 BAR · BAR 1–0 BOC · BOC 2–0 BAR · BOC 1–2 BAR

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A

BOCA UNIDOS

WWDWLD3–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–3

BARTOLOMÉ MITRE

LLLLWD1–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Martin Formosa	26	+16	51
2	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	26	+14	50
3	Alvarado	26	+19	46
4	Douglas Haig	26	+12	43
5	Cipolletti	26	+11	43
6	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	29	+7	43
7	Sol de América	26	+3	43
8	Defensores de Belgrano VR	28	+5	41
9	Kimberley Mar del Plata	25	+9	40
10	Argentino Monte Maíz	25	+6	37
11	9 de Julio Rafaela	26	+4	37
12	Atenas	26	0	37
13	Fundacion Amigos	25	+6	36
14	Sportivo Las Parejas	26	+4	36
15	Sportivo Belgrano	26	+1	35
16	San Martín Mendoza	26	−3	35
17	Costa Brava	25	+3	34
18	Deportivo Rincon	26	+2	34
19	Villa Mitre	24	+7	33
20	Boca Unidos	24	+1	33
21	Atletico Escobar	26	−13	33
22	Defensores de Vilelas	25	−2	32
23	El Linqueño	26	−3	32
24	Gimnasia Concepción	26	+1	31
25	Juventud Unida Univ.	25	+1	31
26	Bartolomé Mitre	24	−1	31
27	Independiente De Chivilcoy	26	−4	31
28	Germinal de Rawson	25	−4	31
29	Juventud Antoniana	25	0	30
30	Sarmiento de La Banda	24	−6	30
31	Huracan Las Heras	25	−10	30
32	Guillermo Brown	25	−8	28
33	Circulo Deportivo	26	−9	25
34	Sol de Mayo	26	−11	25
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	24	−22	21
36	Tucuman Central	24	−18	19
37	Santamarina	25	−18	19