Argentino Monte Maíz v San Martín Mendoza prediction · Torneo Federal A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:00

Argentino Monte Maíz 2–1 San Martín Mendoza ARGENTINO MONTE MAÍZ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Argentino Monte Maíz win~~58%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.279

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.382

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Argentino Monte Maíz win at 58%.
4′Much as we predicted: Argentino Monte Maíz was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–28–15
4′KICK-OFF Argentino Monte Maíz v San Martín Mendoza
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Argentino Monte Maíz win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
37′We said Argentino Monte Maíz at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 46–40–14
40′We said Argentino Monte Maíz at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–42–14
45′San Martín Mendoza score on 45′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 42–44–14
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+17' Argentino Monte Maíz 1–1 San Martín Mendoza
45′HALF-TIME Argentino Monte Maíz 1–1 San Martín Mendoza
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Argentino Monte Maíz win: 58% at kick-off, 42% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Argentino Monte Maíz win 41%)
50′Argentino Monte Maíz find the net on 45′. 0–0 · 39–48–13 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
50′We said Argentino Monte Maíz at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–48–13 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
52′We published Argentino Monte Maíz at 58%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–11–2 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
52′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 87–11–2 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
52′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Argentino Monte Maíz 1–0 San Martín Mendoza
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+7' Argentino Monte Maíz win: 58% at kick-off, 87% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+7' Argentino Monte Maíz win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 11%)
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+10' Argentino Monte Maíz win: 58% at kick-off, 88% now
59′SECOND HALF Argentino Monte Maíz 1–1 San Martín Mendoza
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Argentino Monte Maíz win: 58% at kick-off, 33% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Argentino Monte Maíz win 33%)
60′41′: Joaquín León on the scoresheet for San Martín Mendoza, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 33–56–12
60′We said Argentino Monte Maíz at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–56–12
66′We published Argentino Monte Maíz at 58%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Argentino Monte Maíz 2–1 San Martín Mendoza
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Argentino Monte Maíz win: 58% at kick-off, 90% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Argentino Monte Maíz win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 9%)
67′Argentino Monte Maíz find the net on 54′. 2–1. 2–1 · 90–9–1
68′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 90–9–1
80′We published Argentino Monte Maíz at 58%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Argentino Monte Maíz win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Argentino Monte Maíz 2–1 San Martín Mendoza
FTArgentino Monte Maíz 2–1 San Martín Mendoza · Argentino Monte Maíz win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Argentino Monte Maíz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Argentino Monte Maíz 58%, draw 28%, San Martín Mendoza 15%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Argentino Monte Maíz v San Martín MendozaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Argentino Monte Maíz win58%

Draw28%

San Martín Mendoza win15%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:15

RoundRound of 32

VenueEstadio Modesto Marrone

Line-ups

Argentino Monte Maíz

San Martín Mendoza

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Argentino Monte Maíz

San Martín Mendoza

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Torneo Federal A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Argentino Monte Maíz	16	+4	23
23	San Martín Mendoza	16	−4	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Argentino Monte Maíz

Formation not confirmed

10 I. Blangetti

3 P. Hourdebaigt

8 R. Lasserre

5 L. López

4 U. Perrig

1 A. Bonet

6 F. Rassol

7 M. Romero

11 G. Sarmiento

9 J. Tejada

2 H. Vera Oviedo

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · I. Amaya

12 · Andres Bovo

14 · E. Coronas

20 · S. Gonzalez

13 · B. Priotto

18 · L. Rainero

19 · J. Tomadoni

15 · Dante Zona

17 · S. Landi

San Martín Mendoza

Formation not confirmed

3 Mateo Zapata

8 J. Zanon

9 F. Rivarola

5 I. Paz

4 V. Mercado

11 J. M. Mazzolo

6 R. Mangana

7 J. León

2 Matías Gabriel Contreras

10 D. Arce

1 L. Rodríguez

Coach · A. Abaurre

Substitutes

17 · J. Almeida

18 · E. Batistella

15 · N. Bernabé

16 · Valentino Caro

20 · A. Ferro

14 · L. Mas

12 · Nicolas Rosa

19 · F. Saucedo

13 · Pedro Velazquez

Our number · argentino monte maíz winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

58% The market50%

Us58%

~~Market~~50%

We make Argentino Monte Maíz a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Argentino Monte Maíz v San Martín Mendoza~~1.45 – 0.59

~~Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 16 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 19~~17 v 23

~~The market · Argentino Monte Maíz win~~50% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Argentino Monte Maíz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Argentino Monte Maíz win	58%	50%	+8
Draw	28%	31%	−3
San Martín Mendoza win	15%	19%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
Both teams to score	34%	39%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	61%	60%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	15%	17%	−2
Argentino Monte Maíz or draw	85%	81%	+4
Argentino Monte Maíz clean sheet	56%	–	–
San Martín Mendoza clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.4%

0123450 13.6 7.4 2.3 1 18.4 11.3 3.3 2 13.5 7.9 2.3 3 6.6 3.8 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Argentino Monte Maíz down, San Martín Mendoza across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,195 Torneo Federal A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.9% of games this season, across 489 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Argentino Monte Maíz at home: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). San Martín Mendoza away: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Argentino Monte Maíz, 0.59 for San Martín Mendoza. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–2 ARG · SAN 1–1 ARG · ARG 4–1 SAN · SAN 1–1 ARG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 16 Aug

ARGENTINO MONTE MAÍZ

DDWWWW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

SAN MARTÍN MENDOZA

DLDWDL0–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	16	+9	31
2	Douglas Haig	18	+7	31
3	Sportivo Belgrano	18	+12	30
4	San Martin Formosa	16	+6	30
5	Alvarado	16	+12	27
6	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	18	+5	27
7	Defensores de Belgrano VR	18	+4	27
8	Kimberley Mar del Plata	16	+6	26
9	Bartolomé Mitre	16	+6	26
10	Sol de América	16	+5	26
11	Juventud Antoniana	16	+8	25
12	Cipolletti	16	+4	25
13	Sarmiento de La Banda	16	+2	25
14	9 de Julio Rafaela	18	+1	25
15	Sportivo Las Parejas	18	−1	24
16	Villa Mitre	16	+6	23
17	Argentino Monte Maíz	16	+4	23
18	Atenas	16	−1	23
19	Huracan Las Heras	16	−2	23
20	Atletico Escobar	18	−8	22
21	Fundacion Amigos	16	+3	21
22	Deportivo Rincon	16	−3	19
23	San Martín Mendoza	16	−4	19
24	Defensores de Vilelas	16	−5	19
25	Independiente De Chivilcoy	18	−7	19
26	El Linqueño	18	−7	19
27	Costa Brava	16	−1	18
28	Sol de Mayo	16	−3	18
29	Boca Unidos	16	−6	18
30	Germinal de Rawson	16	−7	18
31	Juventud Unida Univ.	16	0	17
32	Tucuman Central	16	−5	17
33	Gimnasia Concepción	18	−6	17
34	Guillermo Brown	16	−7	17
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	16	−11	15
36	Santamarina	16	−8	13
37	Circulo Deportivo	16	−8	13