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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Torneo Federal A › Argentino Monte Maíz v Kimberley Mar del Plata

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Argentino Monte Maíz v Kimberley Mar del Plata

Argentino Monte Maíz
0–0Full time
Kimberley Mar del Plata

Torneo Federal A · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Modesto Marrone

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:33
Argentino Monte Maíz 0–0 Kimberley Mar del Plata ARGENTINO MONTE MAÍZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Argentino Monte Maíz win50%
The market said37%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.771
The market’s Brier score0.660

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Argentino Monte Maíz win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Argentino Monte Maíz was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–31–20
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Argentino Monte Maíz v Kimberley Mar del Plata
  4. 17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Kimberley Mar del Plata
  5. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Argentino Monte Maíz win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
  6. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Argentino Monte Maíz win 41%)
  7. 40′We said Argentino Monte Maíz at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–44–18
  8. 45′A red card for Argentino Monte Maíz on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 36–47–17
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Argentino Monte Maíz 0–0 Kimberley Mar del Plata
  10. 45′🟥 RED CARD · 45+1' Argentino Monte Maíz
  11. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Argentino Monte Maíz
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Argentino Monte Maíz 0–0 Kimberley Mar del Plata
  13. 49′We said Argentino Monte Maíz at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–16
  14. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Argentino Monte Maíz win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
  15. 59′We said Argentino Monte Maíz at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–57–14
  16. 67′We said Argentino Monte Maíz at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–65–12
  17. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Argentino Monte Maíz win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  18. 73′We said Argentino Monte Maíz at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–72–10
  19. 78′We said Argentino Monte Maíz at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–7
  20. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Argentino Monte Maíz win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
  21. 84′We said Argentino Monte Maíz at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–88–4
  22. 90′We said Argentino Monte Maíz at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
  23. 93′13 shots for Kimberley Mar del Plata, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 2–97–1
  24. FTFULL TIME Argentino Monte Maíz 0–0 Kimberley Mar del Plata
  25. FTArgentino Monte Maíz 0–0 Kimberley Mar del Plata · Argentino Monte Maíz win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Argentino Monte Maíz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Argentino Monte Maíz 50%, draw 30%, Kimberley Mar del Plata 20%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Argentino Monte Maíz v Kimberley Mar del PlataBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Argentino Monte Maíz win50%
Draw30%
Kimberley Mar del Plata win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 16

VenueEstadio Modesto Marrone

Line-ups

Argentino Monte Maíz

Kimberley Mar del Plata

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Argentino Monte Maíz

Kimberley Mar del Plata

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Torneo Federal A

Last match: 17 Oct · Torneo Federal A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Kimberley Mar del Plata16+626
17Argentino Monte Maíz16+423

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Argentino Monte Maíz

Formation not confirmed

10 I. Blangetti

3 P. Hourdebaigt

8 R. Lasserre

5 L. López

4 U. Perrig

6 F. Rassol

7 M. Romero

11 G. Sarmiento

9 J. Tejada

2 H. Vera Oviedo

1 A. Bonet

Coach · –

Kimberley Mar del Plata

Formation not confirmed

10 J. Zárate

2 A. Vazquez

7 E. Ullua

11 F. Russo

9 R. Rios

8 M. Miori

3 F. Mañas

4 T. Loscalso

5 Á. De Gaetani

6 A. Aquino

1 Nicolas Baez

Coach · –

Our number · argentino monte maíz winFirst published 19 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off
50% The market37%
Us50%
Market37%

We make Argentino Monte Maíz a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Argentino Monte Maíz v Kimberley Mar del Plata1.26 – 0.68
Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 23 AugW5 D1 L0 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 23 v 2617 v 8
The market · Argentino Monte Maíz win37% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 19 OCT 15:3224 OCT 19:23
Our probability · Argentino Monte Maíz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Argentino Monte Maíz win50%37%+13
Draw30%34%−4
Kimberley Mar del Plata win20%30%−10
Over 2.5 goals31%34%−3
Both teams to score35%43%−8
Over 1.5 goals58%60%−2
Over 3.5 goals13%17%−4
Argentino Monte Maíz or draw80%70%+10
Argentino Monte Maíz clean sheet51%––
Kimberley Mar del Plata clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.7%
0123450 15.1 9.5 3.4 1 17.7 12.5 4.1 2 11.3 7.6 2.6 3 4.8 3.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Argentino Monte Maíz down, Kimberley Mar del Plata across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsKIM 1–0 ARG · KIM 1–2 ARG · KIM 2–1 ARG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 23 Aug

ARGENTINO MONTE MAÍZ

DWWWWW1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

KIMBERLEY MAR DEL PLATA

LWDDWW0–2 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Olimpo Bahia Blanca16+931
2Douglas Haig18+731
3Sportivo Belgrano18+1230
4San Martin Formosa16+630
5Alvarado16+1227
6Gimnasia Chivilcoy18+527
7Defensores de Belgrano VR18+427
8Kimberley Mar del Plata16+626
9Bartolomé Mitre16+626
10Sol de América16+526
11Juventud Antoniana16+825
12Cipolletti16+425
13Sarmiento de La Banda16+225
149 de Julio Rafaela18+125
15Sportivo Las Parejas18−124
16Villa Mitre16+623
17Argentino Monte Maíz16+423
18Atenas16−123
19Huracan Las Heras16−223
20Atletico Escobar18−822
21Fundacion Amigos16+321
22Deportivo Rincon16−319
23San Martín Mendoza16−419
24Defensores de Vilelas16−519
25Independiente De Chivilcoy18−719
26El Linqueño18−719
27Costa Brava16−118
28Sol de Mayo16−318
29Boca Unidos16−618
30Germinal de Rawson16−718
31Juventud Unida Univ.16017
32Tucuman Central16−517
33Gimnasia Concepción18−617
34Guillermo Brown16−717
35Sarmiento Resistencia16−1115
36Santamarina16−813
37Circulo Deportivo16−813

The competition's standings before kick-off.