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Alvarado v Cipolletti
Alvarado
CipollettiTorneo Federal A · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Jose Maria Minella
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Alvarado win at 50%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Alvarado was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–30–20
- 1′KICK-OFF Alvarado v Cipolletti
- 34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Cipolletti
- 36′7 shots for Alvarado, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 41–41–18
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Alvarado win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
- 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Alvarado win 39%)
- 42′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–44–17
- 45′HALF-TIME Alvarado 0–0 Cipolletti
- 46′SECOND HALF Alvarado 0–0 Cipolletti
- 51′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–16
- 55′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Cipolletti
- 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Alvarado win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
- 60′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–57–14
- 63′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Alvarado
- 64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Alvarado
- 67′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–64–12
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Alvarado win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
- 73′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–71–10
- 79′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–7
- 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Alvarado
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Alvarado win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
- 83′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
- 90′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
- 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Cipolletti
- FTFULL TIME Alvarado 0–0 Cipolletti
- FTAlvarado 0–0 Cipolletti · Alvarado win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Alvarado are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Alvarado 50%, draw 30%, Cipolletti 20%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 36%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Alvarado win50%
Cipolletti win20%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:30
RoundSemi-finals
VenueEstadio Jose Maria Minella
Match timeline
All events
AlvaradoMIN
CipollettiEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Alvarado
Cipolletti
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Alvarado
Cipolletti
Last match: 11 Oct · Torneo Federal A
Last match: 11 Oct · Torneo Federal A
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Alvarado
Formation not confirmed
11 A. Castellano
8 M. Perez
6 P. Hofstetter
10 S. Gutiérrez
3 C. Gorgerino
2 T. Fernández
5 T. Federico
4 L. Chiozza
9 G. Cervera
1 E. Bilbao
7 N. Speck
Coach · Pablo Martel
Substitutes
13 · T. Berra
16 · A. Cortadi
15 · R. Makarte
20 · A. Melean
17 · M. Miori
14 · Lautaro Nunez
18 · Mateo Ostachi
19 · F. Pinoni
12 · A. Zapata
Cipolletti
Formation not confirmed
1 F. Crespo
9 F. Acevedo
8 A. Almiron
3 N. T. Garcia
2 C. González
11 G. Lucero
6 V. Manchafico
7 M. Peralta
5 M. Pérez
10 L. Vella
4 Y. Piro
Coach · Fabian Enriquez
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Alvarado
Formation not confirmed
11 A. Castellano
8 M. Perez
6 P. Hofstetter
10 S. Gutiérrez
3 C. Gorgerino
2 T. Fernández
5 T. Federico
4 L. Chiozza
9 G. Cervera
1 E. Bilbao
7 N. Speck
Coach · Pablo Martel
Substitutes
13 · T. Berra
16 · A. Cortadi
15 · R. Makarte
20 · A. Melean
17 · M. Miori
14 · Lautaro Nunez
18 · Mateo Ostachi
19 · F. Pinoni
12 · A. Zapata
Cipolletti
Formation not confirmed
1 F. Crespo
9 F. Acevedo
8 A. Almiron
3 N. T. Garcia
2 C. González
11 G. Lucero
6 V. Manchafico
7 M. Peralta
5 M. Pérez
10 L. Vella
4 Y. Piro
Coach · Fabian Enriquez
We make Alvarado a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alvarado win | 50% | 45% | +5 |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | −3 |
| Cipolletti win | 20% | 23% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 33% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 16% | −2 |
| Alvarado or draw | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Alvarado clean sheet | 50% | – | – |
| Cipolletti clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 6 Sept
ALVARADO
CIPOLLETTI
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 | Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 | San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 | Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 | Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | −1 | 24 |
| 16 | Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 | Atenas | 16 | −1 | 23 |
| 19 | Huracan Las Heras | 16 | −2 | 23 |
| 20 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | −8 | 22 |
| 21 | Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 | Deportivo Rincon | 16 | −3 | 19 |
| 23 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | −4 | 19 |
| 24 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | −5 | 19 |
| 25 | Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | −7 | 19 |
| 26 | El Linqueño | 18 | −7 | 19 |
| 27 | Costa Brava | 16 | −1 | 18 |
| 28 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | −3 | 18 |
| 29 | Boca Unidos | 16 | −6 | 18 |
| 30 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | −7 | 18 |
| 31 | Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 | Tucuman Central | 16 | −5 | 17 |
| 33 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | −6 | 17 |
| 34 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | −7 | 17 |
| 35 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | −11 | 15 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | −8 | 13 |
| 37 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | −8 | 13 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Douglas Haig
Sportivo Belgrano
San Martin Formosa
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Defensores de Belgrano VR
Kimberley Mar del Plata
Bartolomé Mitre
Sol de América
Juventud Antoniana
Sarmiento de La Banda
9 de Julio Rafaela
Sportivo Las Parejas
Villa Mitre
Argentino Monte Maíz
Atenas
Huracan Las Heras
Atletico Escobar
Fundacion Amigos
Deportivo Rincon
San Martín Mendoza
Defensores de Vilelas
Independiente De Chivilcoy
El Linqueño
Costa Brava
Sol de Mayo
Boca Unidos
Germinal de Rawson
Juventud Unida Univ.
Tucuman Central
Gimnasia Concepción
Guillermo Brown
Sarmiento Resistencia
Santamarina
Circulo Deportivo