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Model 1.2

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Alvarado v Cipolletti

Alvarado
0–0Full time
Cipolletti

Torneo Federal A · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Jose Maria Minella

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:01
Alvarado 0–0 Cipolletti ALVARADO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Alvarado win50%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.787
The market’s Brier score0.701

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Alvarado win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Alvarado was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–30–20
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Alvarado v Cipolletti
  4. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Cipolletti
  5. 36′7 shots for Alvarado, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 41–41–18
  6. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Alvarado win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
  7. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Alvarado win 39%)
  8. 42′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–44–17
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Alvarado 0–0 Cipolletti
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Alvarado 0–0 Cipolletti
  11. 51′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–16
  12. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Cipolletti
  13. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Alvarado win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
  14. 60′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–57–14
  15. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Alvarado
  16. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Alvarado
  17. 67′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–64–12
  18. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Alvarado win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  19. 73′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–71–10
  20. 79′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–7
  21. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Alvarado
  22. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Alvarado win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
  23. 83′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
  24. 90′We said Alvarado at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
  25. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Cipolletti
  26. FTFULL TIME Alvarado 0–0 Cipolletti
  27. FTAlvarado 0–0 Cipolletti · Alvarado win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alvarado are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alvarado 50%, draw 30%, Cipolletti 20%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Alvarado v CipollettiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Alvarado win50%
Draw30%
Cipolletti win20%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:30

RoundSemi-finals

VenueEstadio Jose Maria Minella

Line-ups

Alvarado

Cipolletti

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alvarado

Cipolletti

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Torneo Federal A

Last match: 11 Oct · Torneo Federal A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Alvarado16+1227
12Cipolletti16+425

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Alvarado

Formation not confirmed

11 A. Castellano

8 M. Perez

6 P. Hofstetter

10 S. Gutiérrez

3 C. Gorgerino

2 T. Fernández

5 T. Federico

4 L. Chiozza

9 G. Cervera

1 E. Bilbao

7 N. Speck

Coach · Pablo Martel

Substitutes

13 · T. Berra

16 · A. Cortadi

15 · R. Makarte

20 · A. Melean

17 · M. Miori

14 · Lautaro Nunez

18 · Mateo Ostachi

19 · F. Pinoni

12 · A. Zapata

Cipolletti

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Crespo

9 F. Acevedo

8 A. Almiron

3 N. T. Garcia

2 C. González

11 G. Lucero

6 V. Manchafico

7 M. Peralta

5 M. Pérez

10 L. Vella

4 Y. Piro

Coach · Fabian Enriquez

Our number · alvarado winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
50% The market45%
Us50%
Market45%

We make Alvarado a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Alvarado v Cipolletti1.30 – 0.70
Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 6 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 27 v 255 v 12
The market · Alvarado win45% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 03:5918 OCT 19:06
Our probability · Alvarado win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Alvarado win50%45%+5
Draw30%33%−3
Cipolletti win20%23%−3
Over 2.5 goals32%33%−1
Both teams to score36%38%−2
Over 1.5 goals59%58%+1
Over 3.5 goals14%16%−2
Alvarado or draw80%77%+3
Alvarado clean sheet50%––
Cipolletti clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.2%
0123450 14.2 9.2 3.4 1 17.2 12.5 4.2 2 11.4 7.8 2.7 3 5.0 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Alvarado down, Cipolletti across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored0 of 2
Last meetingsCIP 1–0 ALV · CIP 1–0 ALV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 6 Sept

ALVARADO

WLDDWL3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–1

CIPOLLETTI

DWWLWW1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 6–1 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Olimpo Bahia Blanca16+931
2Douglas Haig18+731
3Sportivo Belgrano18+1230
4San Martin Formosa16+630
5Alvarado16+1227
6Gimnasia Chivilcoy18+527
7Defensores de Belgrano VR18+427
8Kimberley Mar del Plata16+626
9Bartolomé Mitre16+626
10Sol de América16+526
11Juventud Antoniana16+825
12Cipolletti16+425
13Sarmiento de La Banda16+225
149 de Julio Rafaela18+125
15Sportivo Las Parejas18−124
16Villa Mitre16+623
17Argentino Monte Maíz16+423
18Atenas16−123
19Huracan Las Heras16−223
20Atletico Escobar18−822
21Fundacion Amigos16+321
22Deportivo Rincon16−319
23San Martín Mendoza16−419
24Defensores de Vilelas16−519
25Independiente De Chivilcoy18−719
26El Linqueño18−719
27Costa Brava16−118
28Sol de Mayo16−318
29Boca Unidos16−618
30Germinal de Rawson16−718
31Juventud Unida Univ.16017
32Tucuman Central16−517
33Gimnasia Concepción18−617
34Guillermo Brown16−717
35Sarmiento Resistencia16−1115
36Santamarina16−813
37Circulo Deportivo16−813

The competition's standings before kick-off.