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Vélez Sársfield Res. v Racing Club Res.

Vélez Sársfield Res.

4–0Full time

Racing Club Res.

Reserve League · THU 15 OCT

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 21:30

Vélez Sársfield Res. 4–0 Racing Club Res. VÉLEZ SÁRSFIELD RES. WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vélez Sársfield Res. win~~62%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.218

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.265

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vélez Sársfield Res. win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vélez Sársfield Res. was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–22–16
1′KICK-OFF Vélez Sársfield Res. v Racing Club Res.
8′PENALTY MISSED · 8' Racing Club Res.
13′Vélez Sársfield Res. find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–4
13′We published Vélez Sársfield Res. at 62%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Vélez Sársfield Res. 1–0 Racing Club Res.
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Vélez Sársfield Res. win: 62% at kick-off, 84% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 84–12–4
45′A goal for Vélez Sársfield Res. on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Vélez Sársfield Res. 2–0 Racing Club Res.
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Vélez Sársfield Res. win: 62% at kick-off, 97% now
45′HALF-TIME Vélez Sársfield Res. 2–0 Racing Club Res.
46′We published Vélez Sársfield Res. at 62%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
46′SECOND HALF Vélez Sársfield Res. 2–0 Racing Club Res.
56′Vélez Sársfield Res. score on 56′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
56′We published Vélez Sársfield Res. at 62%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Vélez Sársfield Res. 3–0 Racing Club Res.
57′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
71′Vélez Sársfield Res. find the net on 71′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Vélez Sársfield Res. 4–0 Racing Club Res.
73′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Vélez Sársfield Res. 4–0 Racing Club Res.
FTVélez Sársfield Res. 4–0 Racing Club Res. · Vélez Sársfield Res. win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vélez Sársfield Res. are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vélez Sársfield Res. 62%, draw 22%, Racing Club Res. 16%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Vélez Sársfield Res. v Racing Club Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Vélez Sársfield Res. win62%

Draw22%

Racing Club Res. win16%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vélez Sársfield Res.

Racing Club Res.

7Days since last match9

Last match: 8 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

Last match: 6 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Vélez Sársfield Res.	12	+8	20
27	Racing Club Res.	12	−1	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vélez sársfield res. winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

62% The market58%

Us62%

~~Market~~58%

We make Vélez Sársfield Res. a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vélez Sársfield Res. v Racing Club Res.~~1.88 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 1 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 13~~10 v 27

~~The market · Vélez Sársfield Res. win~~58% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vélez Sársfield Res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vélez Sársfield Res. win	62%	58%	+4
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Racing Club Res. win	16%	18%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	54%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	35%	−6
Vélez Sársfield Res. or draw	84%	82%	+2
Vélez Sársfield Res. clean sheet	44%	–	–
Racing Club Res. clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 7.1 5.5 2.3 1 12.6 10.4 4.2 2 11.8 9.5 3.9 3 7.4 6.0 2.4 4 3.5 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vélez Sársfield Res. down, Racing Club Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,657 Reserve League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.8% of games this season, across 558 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vélez Sársfield Res. at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Racing Club Res. away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Vélez Sársfield Res., 0.82 for Racing Club Res.. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VEL 0–0 RAC · RAC 1–1 VEL · VEL 4–1 RAC · RAC 0–1 VEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 1 Sept

VÉLEZ SÁRSFIELD RES.

DDWWDW0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

RACING CLUB RES.

DWWLDD2–2 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	13	+19	30
2	Lanús Res.	13	+10	27
3	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	13	+6	24
4	Deportivo Riestra Res.	13	+9	23
5	River Plate Res.	13	+9	22
6	Estudiantes La Plata Res	13	+8	22
7	Boca Juniors Res.	12	+8	22
8	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	12	+2	22
9	Rosario Central Res.	13	+1	21
10	Vélez Sársfield Res.	12	+8	20
11	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	12	+2	20
12	Atl. Rafaela 2	13	0	20
13	Instituto Res.	13	0	18
14	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	13	+4	17
15	Sarmiento Res.	12	+3	17
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	12	+2	17
17	San Lorenzo Res.	12	+2	17
18	Huracán Res.	13	+1	17
19	Talleres Córdoba Res.	12	+1	17
20	Quilmes 2	13	0	17
21	Unión Santa Fe Res.	12	+7	16
22	Newell's Old Boys Res.	13	+2	15
23	Defensa y Justicia Res.	13	0	15
24	Atlético Tucumán Res.	12	−4	15
25	Argentinos Juniors Res.	13	−4	14
26	Tigre Res.	13	−6	14
27	Racing Club Res.	12	−1	13
28	San Martín San Juan Res.	13	−10	13
29	Aldosivi Res.	13	−4	12
30	Independiente Riva. Res.	13	−7	12
31	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	12	−9	12
32	Banfield Res.	13	−11	12
33	Barracas Central Res.	12	−11	8
34	Colón Res.	13	−12	8
35	Platense Res.	13	−10	7
36	Ferro 2	12	−15	6