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Unión Santa Fe Res. v Barracas Central Res.

Unión Santa Fe Res.

1–1Full time

Barracas Central Res.

Reserve League · THU 22 OCT

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 22:00

Unión Santa Fe Res. 1–1 Barracas Central Res. UNIÓN SANTA FE RES. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Unión Santa Fe Res. win~~61%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.970

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.865

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Unión Santa Fe Res. win at 61%.
1′Much as we predicted: Unión Santa Fe Res. was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–24–15
1′KICK-OFF Unión Santa Fe Res. v Barracas Central Res.
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Unión Santa Fe Res. win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
37′Unión Santa Fe Res. find the net on 37′. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–12–3
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Unión Santa Fe Res. 1–0 Barracas Central Res.
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Unión Santa Fe Res. win: 61% at kick-off, 85% now
38′We published Unión Santa Fe Res. at 61%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
39′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–3
45′HALF-TIME Unión Santa Fe Res. 1–0 Barracas Central Res.
46′SECOND HALF Unión Santa Fe Res. 1–0 Barracas Central Res.
56′PENALTY MISSED · 55' Unión Santa Fe Res.
70′We published Unión Santa Fe Res. at 61%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Unión Santa Fe Res. win: 61% at kick-off, 91% now
82′We published Unión Santa Fe Res. at 61%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
94′A goal for Barracas Central Res. on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–1
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Unión Santa Fe Res. 1–1 Barracas Central Res.
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Unión Santa Fe Res. win: 61% at kick-off, 2% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Unión Santa Fe Res. win 99%)
95′We said Unión Santa Fe Res. at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 2–97–1
FTFULL TIME Unión Santa Fe Res. 1–1 Barracas Central Res.
FTUnión Santa Fe Res. 1–1 Barracas Central Res. · Unión Santa Fe Res. win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Unión Santa Fe Res. are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Unión Santa Fe Res. 61%, draw 24%, Barracas Central Res. 15%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Unión Santa Fe Res. v Barracas Central Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Unión Santa Fe Res. win61%

Draw24%

Barracas Central Res. win15%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Unión Santa Fe Res.

Barracas Central Res.

7Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
22	Unión Santa Fe Res.	13	+4	16
34	Barracas Central Res.	13	−11	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unión santa fe res. winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

61% The market54%

Us61%

~~Market~~54%

We make Unión Santa Fe Res. a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Unión Santa Fe Res. v Barracas Central Res.~~1.70 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 9 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 9~~22 v 34

~~The market · Unión Santa Fe Res. win~~54% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Unión Santa Fe Res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unión Santa Fe Res. win	61%	54%	+7
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Barracas Central Res. win	15%	20%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Both teams to score	41%	48%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	26%	−4
Unión Santa Fe Res. or draw	85%	80%	+5
Unión Santa Fe Res. clean sheet	49%	–	–
Barracas Central Res. clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 9.3 6.3 2.3 1 15.1 10.9 3.9 2 12.8 9.0 3.2 3 7.3 5.1 4 3.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unión Santa Fe Res. down, Barracas Central Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,676 Reserve League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 577 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Unión Santa Fe Res. at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Barracas Central Res. away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Unión Santa Fe Res., 0.71 for Barracas Central Res.. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~BAR 1–1 UNI · UNI 2–2 BAR · BAR 0–1 UNI · UNI 2–0 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 9 Sept

UNIÓN SANTA FE RES.

WWLLWL1–0 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 0–3

BARRACAS CENTRAL RES.

LWLDDD1–2 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	14	+20	33
2	Lanús Res.	14	+13	30
3	Estudiantes La Plata Res	14	+10	25
4	Boca Juniors Res.	13	+9	25
5	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	14	+1	25
6	Vélez Sársfield Res.	14	+12	24
7	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	+5	24
8	Rosario Central Res.	14	+2	24
9	River Plate Res.	14	+9	23
10	Deportivo Riestra Res.	13	+9	23
11	Talleres Córdoba Res.	14	+5	23
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	13	+2	21
13	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	0	21
14	Sarmiento Res.	14	+3	19
15	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	+3	18
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	13	+2	18
17	San Lorenzo Res.	13	+2	18
18	Instituto Res.	13	0	18
19	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	14	+3	17
20	Huracán Res.	13	+1	17
21	Quilmes 2	14	−3	17
22	Unión Santa Fe Res.	13	+4	16
23	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	0	16
24	Atlético Tucumán Res.	13	−4	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	−3	15
26	Independiente Riva. Res.	14	−6	15
27	Tigre Res.	14	−6	15
28	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	−5	14
29	Racing Club Res.	13	−5	13
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	14	−11	13
31	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	13	−10	12
32	Banfield Res.	14	−12	12
33	Colón Res.	14	−11	11
34	Barracas Central Res.	13	−11	9
35	Platense Res.	14	−11	7
36	Ferro 2	14	−17	6