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Tigre Res. v Argentinos Juniors Res.

Tigre Res.

0–1Full time

Argentinos Juniors Res.

Reserve League · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 21:30

Tigre Res. 0–1 Argentinos Juniors Res. TIGRE RES. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tigre Res. win~~35%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.639

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.623

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tigre Res. win at 35%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tigre Res. 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 35–30–35
1′KICK-OFF Tigre Res. v Argentinos Juniors Res.
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Tigre Res. win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Tigre Res. 0–0 Argentinos Juniors Res.
45′SECOND HALF Tigre Res. 0–0 Argentinos Juniors Res.
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Tigre Res. win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
58′We said Tigre Res. at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–54–23
68′We said Tigre Res. at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Tigre Res. win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
75′We said Tigre Res. at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–14
77′77′ and it is 0–1: Argentinos Juniors Res. have scored. 0–1 · 1–12–87
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Tigre Res. 0–1 Argentinos Juniors Res.
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Tigre Res. win: 35% at kick-off, 1% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Argentinos Juniors Res. win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
78′We said Tigre Res. at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–11–88
FTFULL TIME Tigre Res. 0–1 Argentinos Juniors Res.
FTTigre Res. 0–1 Argentinos Juniors Res. · Tigre Res. win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Tigre Res. v Argentinos Juniors Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off

Tigre Res. win35%

Draw30%

Argentinos Juniors Res. win35%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Tigre Res.

Argentinos Juniors Res.

7Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	6	28
32	Tigre Res.	18	-10	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tigre res. winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off

35% The market33%

Us35%

~~Market~~33%

We make Tigre Res. a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tigre Res. v Argentinos Juniors Res.~~1.08 – 1.07

~~Last six in Reserve League~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 28~~32 v 13

~~The market · Tigre Res. win~~33% · ours 35%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tigre res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tigre Res. win	35%	33%	+2
Draw	30%	31%	−1
Argentinos Juniors Res. win	35%	36%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	36%	38%	−1
Both teams to score	43%	46%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	63%	63%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	17%	19%	−2
Tigre Res. or draw	65%	64%	+1
Tigre Res. clean sheet	35%	–	–
Argentinos Juniors Res. clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 12.0 12.3 6.7 2.4 1 12.4 13.4 7.1 2.6 2 6.8 7.2 3.8 3 2.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tigre Res. down, Argentinos Juniors Res. across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,651 Reserve League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 552 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tigre Res. at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Argentinos Juniors Res. away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Tigre Res., 1.07 for Argentinos Juniors Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ARG 2–0 TIG · TIG 1–0 ARG · ARG 2–2 TIG · ARG 2–1 TIG

Form · last six in Reserve League

TIGRE RES.

DWLLWL2–2 · 2–0 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

ARGENTINOS JUNIORS RES.

DLDWDL1–1 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	20	29	47
2	Boca Juniors Res.	20	24	39
3	Racing Club Res.	21	7	39
4	River Plate Res.	21	9	37
5	Independiente Res.	19	19	36
6	Lanús Res.	19	13	35
7	Newell's Old Boys Res.	19	9	34
8	Quilmes 2	18	8	33
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	14	32
10	Atlético Tucumán Res.	19	-2	30
11	Unión Santa Fe Res.	18	4	29
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	9	28
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	6	28
14	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	18	-2	27
15	Talleres Córdoba Res.	18	6	26
16	Huracán Res.	18	6	26
17	Rosario Central Res.	18	3	26
18	Platense Res.	18	-3	26
19	Deportivo Riestra Res.	18	7	25
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	0	24
21	Instituto Res.	18	-1	24
22	San Lorenzo Res.	18	-2	24
23	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	18	2	23
24	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	18	-3	23
25	Banfield Res.	18	-4	23
26	Ferro 2	18	-3	22
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	18	-12	19
28	Colón Res.	18	-8	18
29	Aldosivi Res.	18	-11	18
30	Barracas Central Res.	18	-13	17
31	Sarmiento Res.	18	-10	16
32	Tigre Res.	18	-10	16
33	Godoy Cruz Res.	18	-10	15
34	Atl. Rafaela 2	18	-15	12
35	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	18	-23	11
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	18	-43	8