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Talleres Córdoba Res. v Unión Santa Fe Res.

Talleres Córdoba Res.

3–0Full time

Unión Santa Fe Res.

Reserve League · THU 15 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 00:00

Talleres Córdoba Res. 3–0 Unión Santa Fe Res. TALLERES CÓRDOBA RES. WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Talleres Córdoba Res. win~~43%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.483

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.556

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Talleres Córdoba Res. win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Talleres Córdoba Res. was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
1′KICK-OFF Talleres Córdoba Res. v Unión Santa Fe Res.
35′A goal for Talleres Córdoba Res. on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–7
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Talleres Córdoba Res. 1–0 Unión Santa Fe Res.
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Talleres Córdoba Res. win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
36′We published Talleres Córdoba Res. at 43%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–7
36′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
39′We published Talleres Córdoba Res. at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Talleres Córdoba Res. 1–0 Unión Santa Fe Res.
46′SECOND HALF Talleres Córdoba Res. 1–0 Unión Santa Fe Res.
55′Talleres Córdoba Res. score on 55′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Talleres Córdoba Res. 2–0 Unión Santa Fe Res.
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Talleres Córdoba Res. win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
56′We published Talleres Córdoba Res. at 43%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–0
81′We published Talleres Córdoba Res. at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′Talleres Córdoba Res. find the net on 90′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Talleres Córdoba Res. 3–0 Unión Santa Fe Res.
FTFULL TIME Talleres Córdoba Res. 3–0 Unión Santa Fe Res.
FTTalleres Córdoba Res. 3–0 Unión Santa Fe Res. · Talleres Córdoba Res. win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Talleres Córdoba Res. are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Talleres Córdoba Res. 43%, draw 28%, Unión Santa Fe Res. 29%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Talleres Córdoba Res. v Unión Santa Fe Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Talleres Córdoba Res. win43%

Draw28%

Unión Santa Fe Res. win29%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Talleres Córdoba Res.

Unión Santa Fe Res.

7Days since last match9

Last match: 8 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

Last match: 6 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	Talleres Córdoba Res.	12	+1	17
21	Unión Santa Fe Res.	12	+7	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · talleres córdoba res. winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

43% The market39%

Us43%

~~Market~~39%

We make Talleres Córdoba Res. a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Talleres Córdoba Res. v Unión Santa Fe Res.~~1.34 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 1 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 16~~19 v 21

~~The market · Talleres Córdoba Res. win~~39% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Talleres Córdoba Res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Talleres Córdoba Res. win	43%	39%	+4
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Unión Santa Fe Res. win	29%	31%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	42%	42%	0
Both teams to score	47%	49%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	67%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	23%	−1
Talleres Córdoba Res. or draw	71%	69%	+2
Talleres Córdoba Res. clean sheet	36%	–	–
Unión Santa Fe Res. clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.6 9.6 5.1 1 12.3 12.9 6.6 2.3 2 8.3 8.5 4.4 3 3.7 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Talleres Córdoba Res. down, Unión Santa Fe Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,657 Reserve League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.8% of games this season, across 558 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Talleres Córdoba Res. at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Unión Santa Fe Res. away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Talleres Córdoba Res., 1.04 for Unión Santa Fe Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–1 TAL · UNI 2–0 TAL · TAL 2–2 UNI · UNI 4–0 TAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 1 Sept

TALLERES CÓRDOBA RES.

LWLDWL0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–2

UNIÓN SANTA FE RES.

DWWLLW0–0 · 1–0 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 5–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	13	+19	30
2	Lanús Res.	13	+10	27
3	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	13	+6	24
4	Deportivo Riestra Res.	13	+9	23
5	River Plate Res.	13	+9	22
6	Estudiantes La Plata Res	13	+8	22
7	Boca Juniors Res.	12	+8	22
8	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	12	+2	22
9	Rosario Central Res.	13	+1	21
10	Vélez Sársfield Res.	12	+8	20
11	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	12	+2	20
12	Atl. Rafaela 2	13	0	20
13	Instituto Res.	13	0	18
14	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	13	+4	17
15	Sarmiento Res.	12	+3	17
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	12	+2	17
17	San Lorenzo Res.	12	+2	17
18	Huracán Res.	13	+1	17
19	Talleres Córdoba Res.	12	+1	17
20	Quilmes 2	13	0	17
21	Unión Santa Fe Res.	12	+7	16
22	Newell's Old Boys Res.	13	+2	15
23	Defensa y Justicia Res.	13	0	15
24	Atlético Tucumán Res.	12	−4	15
25	Argentinos Juniors Res.	13	−4	14
26	Tigre Res.	13	−6	14
27	Racing Club Res.	12	−1	13
28	San Martín San Juan Res.	13	−10	13
29	Aldosivi Res.	13	−4	12
30	Independiente Riva. Res.	13	−7	12
31	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	12	−9	12
32	Banfield Res.	13	−11	12
33	Barracas Central Res.	12	−11	8
34	Colón Res.	13	−12	8
35	Platense Res.	13	−10	7
36	Ferro 2	12	−15	6