Home › Football › Reserve League › Sarmiento Res. v Tigre Res.

Sarmiento Res. v Tigre Res.

Sarmiento Res.

1–1Full time

Tigre Res.

Reserve League · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 21:30

Sarmiento Res. 1–1 Tigre Res. SARMIENTO RES. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sarmiento Res. win~~41%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.736

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.761

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sarmiento Res. win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sarmiento Res. 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–31–28
1′KICK-OFF Sarmiento Res. v Tigre Res.
23′A goal for Sarmiento Res. on 22′. 0–0 · 37–36–26
24′We said Sarmiento Res. at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–7
24′⚽ GOAL · 22' Sarmiento Res. 1–0 Tigre Res.
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Sarmiento Res. win: 41% at kick-off, 74% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
31′We said Sarmiento Res. at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Sarmiento Res. 1–0 Tigre Res.
46′SECOND HALF Sarmiento Res. 1–0 Tigre Res.
55′We said Sarmiento Res. at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Sarmiento Res. win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
64′Tigre Res. find the net on 64′. 1–0 · 83–15–2
64′We said Sarmiento Res. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–60–17
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Sarmiento Res. 1–1 Tigre Res.
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Sarmiento Res. win: 41% at kick-off, 23% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Sarmiento Res. win 83%)
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Sarmiento Res. win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
70′We said Sarmiento Res. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
76′We said Sarmiento Res. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–11
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Sarmiento Res. win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
82′We said Sarmiento Res. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
89′We said Sarmiento Res. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Sarmiento Res. win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME Sarmiento Res. 1–1 Tigre Res.
FTSarmiento Res. 1–1 Tigre Res. · Sarmiento Res. win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sarmiento Res. are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sarmiento Res. 41%, draw 30%, Tigre Res. 28%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Sarmiento Res. v Tigre Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Sarmiento Res. win41%

Draw30%

Tigre Res. win28%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sarmiento Res.

Tigre Res.

5Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

Last match: 14 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Sarmiento Res.	13	+3	18
26	Tigre Res.	13	−6	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sarmiento res. winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make Sarmiento Res. a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sarmiento Res. v Tigre Res.~~1.15 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 9 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 14~~14 v 26

~~The market · Sarmiento Res. win~~45% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sarmiento Res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarmiento Res. win	41%	45%	−4
Draw	30%	30%	0
Tigre Res. win	28%	26%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Both teams to score	40%	46%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	61%	64%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	15%	21%	−6
Sarmiento Res. or draw	72%	74%	−2
Sarmiento Res. clean sheet	41%	–	–
Tigre Res. clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 13.2 11.4 5.2 1 14.6 13.3 5.9 2 8.5 7.6 3.4 3 3.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarmiento Res. down, Tigre Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,664 Reserve League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.8% of games this season, across 565 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sarmiento Res. at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tigre Res. away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Sarmiento Res., 0.90 for Tigre Res.. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TIG 1–3 SAR · TIG 1–1 SAR · SAR 0–1 TIG · TIG 1–0 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 9 Sept

SARMIENTO RES.

DLWLLD2–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

TIGRE RES.

WLLWLL2–0 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	13	+19	30
2	Lanús Res.	13	+10	27
3	Boca Juniors Res.	13	+9	25
4	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	13	+3	25
5	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	13	+6	24
6	Vélez Sársfield Res.	13	+12	23
7	Deportivo Riestra Res.	13	+9	23
8	River Plate Res.	13	+9	22
9	Estudiantes La Plata Res	13	+8	22
10	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	13	+2	21
11	Rosario Central Res.	13	+1	21
12	Talleres Córdoba Res.	13	+4	20
13	Atl. Rafaela 2	13	0	20
14	Sarmiento Res.	13	+3	18
15	Godoy Cruz Res.	13	+2	18
16	San Lorenzo Res.	13	+2	18
17	Instituto Res.	13	0	18
18	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	13	+4	17
19	Huracán Res.	13	+1	17
20	Quilmes 2	13	0	17
21	Unión Santa Fe Res.	13	+4	16
22	Atlético Tucumán Res.	13	−4	16
23	Newell's Old Boys Res.	13	+2	15
24	Defensa y Justicia Res.	13	0	15
25	Argentinos Juniors Res.	13	−4	14
26	Tigre Res.	13	−6	14
27	Racing Club Res.	13	−5	13
28	San Martín San Juan Res.	13	−10	13
29	Aldosivi Res.	13	−4	12
30	Independiente Riva. Res.	13	−7	12
31	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	13	−10	12
32	Banfield Res.	13	−11	12
33	Barracas Central Res.	13	−11	9
34	Colón Res.	13	−12	8
35	Platense Res.	13	−10	7
36	Ferro 2	13	−16	6