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San Lorenzo Res. v Sarmiento Res.

San Lorenzo Res.
1–1Full time
Sarmiento Res.

Reserve League · THU 15 OCT

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 21:30
San Lorenzo Res. 1–1 Sarmiento Res. SAN LORENZO RES. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said San Lorenzo Res. win54%
The market said46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.849
The market’s Brier score0.777

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said San Lorenzo Res. win at 54%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF San Lorenzo Res. v Sarmiento Res.
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: San Lorenzo Res. was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–28–19
  4. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' San Lorenzo Res. win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
  5. 38′San Lorenzo Res. score on 38′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  6. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' San Lorenzo Res. 1–0 Sarmiento Res.
  7. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' San Lorenzo Res. win: 54% at kick-off, 83% now
  8. 39′We published San Lorenzo Res. at 54%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  9. 39′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  10. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' San Lorenzo Res. win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
  11. 45′HALF-TIME San Lorenzo Res. 1–0 Sarmiento Res.
  12. 46′SECOND HALF San Lorenzo Res. 1–0 Sarmiento Res.
  13. 52′We published San Lorenzo Res. at 54%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  14. 69′Sarmiento Res. find the net on 69′. 1–1. 1–1 · 24–64–11
  15. 69′We said San Lorenzo Res. at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–64–11
  16. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' San Lorenzo Res. 1–1 Sarmiento Res.
  17. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' San Lorenzo Res. win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
  18. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was San Lorenzo Res. win 24%)
  19. 75′We said San Lorenzo Res. at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–72–9
  20. 80′We said San Lorenzo Res. at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–80–6
  21. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' San Lorenzo Res. win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
  22. 84′We said San Lorenzo Res. at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–87–4
  23. 91′We said San Lorenzo Res. at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  24. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' San Lorenzo Res. win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
  25. FTFULL TIME San Lorenzo Res. 1–1 Sarmiento Res.
  26. FTSan Lorenzo Res. 1–1 Sarmiento Res. · San Lorenzo Res. win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Lorenzo Res. are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Lorenzo Res. 54%, draw 28%, Sarmiento Res. 19%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on San Lorenzo Res. v Sarmiento Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

San Lorenzo Res. win54%
Draw28%
Sarmiento Res. win19%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Lorenzo Res.

Sarmiento Res.

7Days since last match7

Last match: 8 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

Last match: 8 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Clausura

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
15Sarmiento Res.12+317
17San Lorenzo Res.12+217

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san lorenzo res. winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off
54% The market46%
Us54%
Market46%

We make San Lorenzo Res. a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · San Lorenzo Res. v Sarmiento Res.1.42 – 0.71
Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 1 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 17 v 1717 v 15
The market · San Lorenzo Res. win46% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 07:1815 OCT 18:33
Our probability · San Lorenzo Res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
San Lorenzo Res. win54%46%+8
Draw28%29%−1
Sarmiento Res. win19%26%−7
Over 2.5 goals36%41%−5
Both teams to score38%46%−8
Over 1.5 goals63%66%−3
Over 3.5 goals17%21%−4
San Lorenzo Res. or draw81%74%+7
San Lorenzo Res. clean sheet50%––
Sarmiento Res. clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.8%
0123450 12.3 8.4 3.0 1 16.8 11.9 4.2 2 11.9 8.3 3.0 3 5.7 4.0 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+San Lorenzo Res. down, Sarmiento Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting3.57
Over 2.55 of 7
Both scored4 of 7
Last meetingsSAR 1–2 SAN · SAN 5–2 SAR · SAR 3–2 SAN · SAN 6–0 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 1 Sept

SAN LORENZO RES.

LLLLWW1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–0

SARMIENTO RES.

DDLWLL1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Clausura
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Independiente Res.13+1930
2Lanús Res.13+1027
3Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 213+624
4Deportivo Riestra Res.13+923
5River Plate Res.13+922
6Estudiantes La Plata Res13+822
7Boca Juniors Res.12+822
8Belgrano Córdoba Res.12+222
9Rosario Central Res.13+121
10Vélez Sársfield Res.12+820
11Gimnasia Mendoza 212+220
12Atl. Rafaela 213020
13Instituto Res.13018
14Gimnasia La Plata Res.13+417
15Sarmiento Res.12+317
16Godoy Cruz Res.12+217
17San Lorenzo Res.12+217
18Huracán Res.13+117
19Talleres Córdoba Res.12+117
20Quilmes 213017
21Unión Santa Fe Res.12+716
22Newell's Old Boys Res.13+215
23Defensa y Justicia Res.13015
24Atlético Tucumán Res.12−415
25Argentinos Juniors Res.13−414
26Tigre Res.13−614
27Racing Club Res.12−113
28San Martín San Juan Res.13−1013
29Aldosivi Res.13−412
30Independiente Riva. Res.13−712
31Central Córdoba SdE Res.12−912
32Banfield Res.13−1112
33Barracas Central Res.12−118
34Colón Res.13−128
35Platense Res.13−107
36Ferro 212−156

The competition's standings before kick-off.