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San Lorenzo Res. v Sarmiento Res.
San Lorenzo Res.
Sarmiento Res.Reserve League · THU 15 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said San Lorenzo Res. win at 54%.
- 1′KICK-OFF San Lorenzo Res. v Sarmiento Res.
- 2′Much as we predicted: San Lorenzo Res. was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–28–19
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' San Lorenzo Res. win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
- 38′San Lorenzo Res. score on 38′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
- 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' San Lorenzo Res. 1–0 Sarmiento Res.
- 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' San Lorenzo Res. win: 54% at kick-off, 83% now
- 39′We published San Lorenzo Res. at 54%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–3
- 39′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–3
- 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' San Lorenzo Res. win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
- 45′HALF-TIME San Lorenzo Res. 1–0 Sarmiento Res.
- 46′SECOND HALF San Lorenzo Res. 1–0 Sarmiento Res.
- 52′We published San Lorenzo Res. at 54%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
- 69′Sarmiento Res. find the net on 69′. 1–1. 1–1 · 24–64–11
- 69′We said San Lorenzo Res. at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–64–11
- 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' San Lorenzo Res. 1–1 Sarmiento Res.
- 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' San Lorenzo Res. win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
- 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was San Lorenzo Res. win 24%)
- 75′We said San Lorenzo Res. at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–72–9
- 80′We said San Lorenzo Res. at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–80–6
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' San Lorenzo Res. win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
- 84′We said San Lorenzo Res. at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–87–4
- 91′We said San Lorenzo Res. at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
- 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' San Lorenzo Res. win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
- FTFULL TIME San Lorenzo Res. 1–1 Sarmiento Res.
- FTSan Lorenzo Res. 1–1 Sarmiento Res. · San Lorenzo Res. win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassSan Lorenzo Res. are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: San Lorenzo Res. 54%, draw 28%, Sarmiento Res. 19%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 38%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off
San Lorenzo Res. win54%
Sarmiento Res. win19%Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 19:00
RoundClausura · matchday 13
Match timeline
All events
San Lorenzo Res.MIN
Sarmiento Res.Events will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
San Lorenzo Res.
Sarmiento Res.
Last match: 8 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League
Last match: 8 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make San Lorenzo Res. a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Lorenzo Res. win | 54% | 46% | +8 |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | −1 |
| Sarmiento Res. win | 19% | 26% | −7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 41% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 46% | −8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 21% | −4 |
| San Lorenzo Res. or draw | 81% | 74% | +7 |
| San Lorenzo Res. clean sheet | 50% | – | – |
| Sarmiento Res. clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2022Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 1 Sept
SAN LORENZO RES.
SARMIENTO RES.
The table
2026 · Clausura| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Res. | 13 | +19 | 30 |
| 2 | Lanús Res. | 13 | +10 | 27 |
| 3 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 13 | +6 | 24 |
| 4 | Deportivo Riestra Res. | 13 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 | River Plate Res. | 13 | +9 | 22 |
| 6 | Estudiantes La Plata Res | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 7 | Boca Juniors Res. | 12 | +8 | 22 |
| 8 | Belgrano Córdoba Res. | 12 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 | Rosario Central Res. | 13 | +1 | 21 |
| 10 | Vélez Sársfield Res. | 12 | +8 | 20 |
| 11 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 12 | +2 | 20 |
| 12 | Atl. Rafaela 2 | 13 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 | Instituto Res. | 13 | 0 | 18 |
| 14 | Gimnasia La Plata Res. | 13 | +4 | 17 |
| 15 | Sarmiento Res. | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 16 | Godoy Cruz Res. | 12 | +2 | 17 |
| 17 | San Lorenzo Res. | 12 | +2 | 17 |
| 18 | Huracán Res. | 13 | +1 | 17 |
| 19 | Talleres Córdoba Res. | 12 | +1 | 17 |
| 20 | Quilmes 2 | 13 | 0 | 17 |
| 21 | Unión Santa Fe Res. | 12 | +7 | 16 |
| 22 | Newell's Old Boys Res. | 13 | +2 | 15 |
| 23 | Defensa y Justicia Res. | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| 24 | Atlético Tucumán Res. | 12 | −4 | 15 |
| 25 | Argentinos Juniors Res. | 13 | −4 | 14 |
| 26 | Tigre Res. | 13 | −6 | 14 |
| 27 | Racing Club Res. | 12 | −1 | 13 |
| 28 | San Martín San Juan Res. | 13 | −10 | 13 |
| 29 | Aldosivi Res. | 13 | −4 | 12 |
| 30 | Independiente Riva. Res. | 13 | −7 | 12 |
| 31 | Central Córdoba SdE Res. | 12 | −9 | 12 |
| 32 | Banfield Res. | 13 | −11 | 12 |
| 33 | Barracas Central Res. | 12 | −11 | 8 |
| 34 | Colón Res. | 13 | −12 | 8 |
| 35 | Platense Res. | 13 | −10 | 7 |
| 36 | Ferro 2 | 12 | −15 | 6 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Independiente Res.
Lanús Res.
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2
Deportivo Riestra Res.
River Plate Res.
Estudiantes La Plata Res
Boca Juniors Res.
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
Rosario Central Res.
Vélez Sársfield Res.
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
Atl. Rafaela 2
Instituto Res.
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
Godoy Cruz Res.
Huracán Res.
Talleres Córdoba Res.
Quilmes 2
Unión Santa Fe Res.
Newell's Old Boys Res.
Defensa y Justicia Res.
Atlético Tucumán Res.
Argentinos Juniors Res.
Tigre Res.
Racing Club Res.
San Martín San Juan Res.
Aldosivi Res.
Independiente Riva. Res.
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
Banfield Res.
Barracas Central Res.
Colón Res.
Platense Res.
Ferro 2