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San Lorenzo Res. v River Plate Res.

San Lorenzo Res.

18:00Upcoming

River Plate Res.

Reserve League · WED 28 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San Lorenzo Res.DrawRiver Plate Res.

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · River Plate Res. 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with River Plate Res. just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: San Lorenzo Res. 35%, draw 28%, River Plate Res. 37%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on San Lorenzo Res. v River Plate Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

San Lorenzo Res. win35%

Draw28%

River Plate Res. win37%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Lorenzo Res.

River Plate Res.

6Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

Last match: 21 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	River Plate Res.	14	+9	23
13	San Lorenzo Res.	14	+3	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · river plate res. winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make River Plate Res. a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Lorenzo Res. v River Plate Res.~~1.20 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 15 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 23~~13 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Lorenzo Res. win	35%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
River Plate Res. win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
San Lorenzo Res. or draw	63%	–	–
San Lorenzo Res. clean sheet	29%	–	–
River Plate Res. clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.1 10.6 6.7 2.8 1 10.3 13.0 7.9 3.3 2 6.3 7.7 4.7 3 2.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Lorenzo Res. down, River Plate Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,682 Reserve League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 583 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Lorenzo Res. at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). River Plate Res. away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for San Lorenzo Res., 1.24 for River Plate Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RIV 1–1 SAN · RIV 2–2 SAN · RIV 1–1 SAN · SAN 2–0 RIV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 15 Sept

SAN LORENZO RES.

LLWWDW0–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2

RIVER PLATE RES.

DDWDLD0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	14	+20	33
2	Lanús Res.	14	+13	30
3	Deportivo Riestra Res.	14	+11	26
4	Estudiantes La Plata Res	14	+10	25
5	Boca Juniors Res.	14	+8	25
6	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	14	+1	25
7	Vélez Sársfield Res.	14	+12	24
8	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	+5	24
9	Rosario Central Res.	14	+2	24
10	River Plate Res.	14	+9	23
11	Talleres Córdoba Res.	14	+5	23
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	14	+2	22
13	San Lorenzo Res.	14	+3	21
14	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	0	21
15	Huracán Res.	14	+2	20
16	Sarmiento Res.	14	+3	19
17	Godoy Cruz Res.	14	+2	19
18	Instituto Res.	14	0	19
19	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	+3	18
20	Unión Santa Fe Res.	14	+4	17
21	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	14	+3	17
22	Quilmes 2	14	−3	17
23	Atlético Tucumán Res.	14	−4	17
24	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	0	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	−3	15
26	Independiente Riva. Res.	14	−6	15
27	Tigre Res.	14	−6	15
28	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	−5	14
29	Racing Club Res.	14	−6	13
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	14	−11	13
31	Banfield Res.	14	−12	12
32	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	14	−12	12
33	Colón Res.	14	−11	11
34	Barracas Central Res.	14	−11	10
35	Platense Res.	14	−11	7
36	Ferro 2	14	−17	6