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Rosario Central Res. v Aldosivi Res.

Rosario Central Res.
1–1Full time
Aldosivi Res.

Reserve League · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 21:30
Rosario Central Res. 1–1 Aldosivi Res. ROSARIO CENTRAL RES. WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Rosario Central Res. win65%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.074
The market’s Brier score0.945

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rosario Central Res. win at 65%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Rosario Central Res. v Aldosivi Res.
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Rosario Central Res. 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–21–14
  4. 27′A goal for Rosario Central Res. on 28′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 58–27–15
  5. 28′We said Rosario Central Res. at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–4
  6. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Rosario Central Res. 1–0 Aldosivi Res.
  7. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Rosario Central Res. win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–3
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Rosario Central Res. 1–0 Aldosivi Res.
  10. 51′52′ and it is 1–0: Aldosivi Res. have scored. 1–0 · 86–12–2
  11. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Rosario Central Res. 1–1 Aldosivi Res.
  12. 53′We said Rosario Central Res. at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 1–1 · 46–40–14
  13. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Rosario Central Res. win: 65% at kick-off, 46% now
  14. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Rosario Central Res. win: 65% at kick-off, 45% now
  15. 55′We said Rosario Central Res. at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–42–14
  16. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Rosario Central Res. win 41%)
  17. 62′We said Rosario Central Res. at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–48–13
  18. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Rosario Central Res. win: 65% at kick-off, 35% now
  19. 68′We said Rosario Central Res. at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–55–12
  20. 72′We said Rosario Central Res. at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–60–11
  21. 76′We said Rosario Central Res. at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–67–9
  22. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Rosario Central Res. win: 65% at kick-off, 24% now
  23. 80′We said Rosario Central Res. at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–74–7
  24. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Rosario Central Res. win: 65% at kick-off, 15% now
  25. 83′We said Rosario Central Res. at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–81–5
  26. 87′We said Rosario Central Res. at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–87–4
  27. 91′Aldosivi Res. are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 5–92–2
  28. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Rosario Central Res. win: 65% at kick-off, 5% now
  29. 91′🟥 RED CARD · 92' Aldosivi Res.
  30. 92′🟥 RED CARD · 92' Aldosivi Res.
  31. 93′We said Rosario Central Res. at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–1 · 3–95–1
  32. FTFULL TIME Rosario Central Res. 1–1 Aldosivi Res.
  33. FTRosario Central Res. 1–1 Aldosivi Res. · Rosario Central Res. win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Rosario Central Res. v Aldosivi Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off

Rosario Central Res. win65%
Draw21%
Aldosivi Res. win14%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Rosario Central Res.

Aldosivi Res.

8Days since last match7
2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
17Rosario Central Res.18326
29Aldosivi Res.18-1118

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rosario central res. winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off
65% The market57%
Us65%
Market57%

We make Rosario Central Res. a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Rosario Central Res. v Aldosivi Res.2.04 – 0.83
Last six in Reserve LeagueW3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 26 v 1817 v 29
The market · Rosario Central Res. win57% · ours 65%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 9 OCT 06:1714 OCT 16:06
Our probability · rosario central res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Rosario Central Res. win65%57%+8
Draw21%24%−3
Aldosivi Res. win14%19%−4
Over 2.5 goals54%56%−2
Both teams to score49%54%−6
Over 1.5 goals78%77%0
Over 3.5 goals32%35%−3
Rosario Central Res. or draw86%81%+4
Rosario Central Res. clean sheet44%––
Aldosivi Res. clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.7%
0123450 6.0 4.7 2.0 1 11.5 9.7 4.0 2 11.7 9.6 4.0 3 7.9 6.5 2.7 4 4.1 3.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Rosario Central Res. down, Aldosivi Res. across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.67
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsALD 1–0 ROS · ROS 5–1 ALD · ALD 1–0 ROS

Form · last six in Reserve League

ROSARIO CENTRAL RES.

WLWLWD2–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 2–2

ALDOSIVI RES.

DDLLLW2–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vélez Sársfield Res.202947
2Boca Juniors Res.202439
3Racing Club Res.21739
4River Plate Res.21937
5Independiente Res.191936
6Lanús Res.191335
7Newell's Old Boys Res.19934
8Quilmes 218833
9Defensa y Justicia Res.181432
10Atlético Tucumán Res.19-230
11Unión Santa Fe Res.18429
12Estudiantes La Plata Res18928
13Argentinos Juniors Res.18628
14Belgrano Córdoba Res.18-227
15Talleres Córdoba Res.18626
16Huracán Res.18626
17Rosario Central Res.18326
18Platense Res.18-326
19Deportivo Riestra Res.18725
20Independiente Riva. Res.18024
21Instituto Res.18-124
22San Lorenzo Res.18-224
23Gimnasia La Plata Res.18223
24Gimnasia Mendoza 218-323
25Banfield Res.18-423
26Ferro 218-322
27Central Córdoba SdE Res.18-1219
28Colón Res.18-818
29Aldosivi Res.18-1118
30Barracas Central Res.18-1317
31Sarmiento Res.18-1016
32Tigre Res.18-1016
33Godoy Cruz Res.18-1015
34Atl. Rafaela 218-1512
35Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 218-2311
36San Martín San Juan Res.18-438

The competition's standings.