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River Plate Res. v Vélez Sársfield Res.

River Plate Res.

1–1Full time

Vélez Sársfield Res.

Reserve League · WED 21 OCT

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

River Plate Res. 1–1 Vélez Sársfield Res. RIVER PLATE RES. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said River Plate Res. win~~38%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.762

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.757

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said River Plate Res. win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: River Plate Res. was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
1′KICK-OFF River Plate Res. v Vélez Sársfield Res.
21′A goal for River Plate Res. on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–11
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' River Plate Res. 1–0 Vélez Sársfield Res.
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' River Plate Res. win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
22′We published River Plate Res. at 38%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–21–10
29′We published River Plate Res. at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 70–21–9
45′HALF-TIME River Plate Res. 1–0 Vélez Sársfield Res.
45′SECOND HALF River Plate Res. 1–0 Vélez Sársfield Res.
51′We published River Plate Res. at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' River Plate Res. win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
64′We published River Plate Res. at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
73′We published River Plate Res. at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' River Plate Res. win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
80′We published River Plate Res. at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
84′We said River Plate Res. at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–86–7
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' River Plate Res. 1–1 Vélez Sársfield Res.
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' River Plate Res. win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was River Plate Res. win 93%)
85′Vélez Sársfield Res. score on 84′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 7–87–6
89′We said River Plate Res. at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
90′Full time, 1–1. We called River Plate Res. at 38% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME River Plate Res. 1–1 Vélez Sársfield Res.
FTRiver Plate Res. 1–1 Vélez Sársfield Res. · River Plate Res. win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with River Plate Res. just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: River Plate Res. 38%, draw 29%, Vélez Sársfield Res. 34%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on River Plate Res. v Vélez Sársfield Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

River Plate Res. win38%

Draw29%

Vélez Sársfield Res. win34%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

River Plate Res.

Vélez Sársfield Res.

8Days since last match6

Last match: 13 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

Last match: 15 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Vélez Sársfield Res.	13	+12	23
11	River Plate Res.	13	+9	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · river plate res. winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 16 Oct 00:06 · locked at kick-off

38% The market33%

Us38%

~~Market~~33%

We make River Plate Res. a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · River Plate Res. v Vélez Sársfield Res.~~1.19 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 8 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 22 v 23~~11 v 8

~~The market · River Plate Res. win~~33% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · River Plate Res. win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
River Plate Res. win	38%	33%	+5
Draw	29%	29%	0
Vélez Sársfield Res. win	34%	38%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	40%	48%	−8
Both teams to score	46%	54%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	67%	72%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	20%	28%	−8
River Plate Res. or draw	66%	62%	+4
River Plate Res. clean sheet	33%	–	–
Vélez Sársfield Res. clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.5 11.0 6.2 2.3 1 11.8 13.3 7.2 2.7 2 7.1 7.8 4.3 3 2.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+River Plate Res. down, Vélez Sársfield Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,670 Reserve League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.1% of games this season, across 571 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.11 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

River Plate Res. at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Vélez Sársfield Res. away: 0.50 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for River Plate Res., 1.10 for Vélez Sársfield Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.11

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~VEL 1–0 RIV · VEL 2–1 RIV · RIV 1–0 VEL · RIV 1–1 VEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 8 Sept

RIVER PLATE RES.

DDDWDL2–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–3

VÉLEZ SÁRSFIELD RES.

DWWDWW0–0 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 4–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	14	+20	33
2	Lanús Res.	13	+10	27
3	Estudiantes La Plata Res	14	+10	25
4	Boca Juniors Res.	13	+9	25
5	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	14	+1	25
6	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	+5	24
7	Rosario Central Res.	14	+2	24
8	Vélez Sársfield Res.	13	+12	23
9	Deportivo Riestra Res.	13	+9	23
10	Talleres Córdoba Res.	14	+5	23
11	River Plate Res.	13	+9	22
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	13	+2	21
13	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	0	21
14	Sarmiento Res.	14	+3	19
15	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	+3	18
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	13	+2	18
17	San Lorenzo Res.	13	+2	18
18	Instituto Res.	13	0	18
19	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	14	+3	17
20	Huracán Res.	13	+1	17
21	Quilmes 2	13	0	17
22	Unión Santa Fe Res.	13	+4	16
23	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	0	16
24	Atlético Tucumán Res.	13	−4	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	−3	15
26	Independiente Riva. Res.	14	−6	15
27	Tigre Res.	14	−6	15
28	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	−5	14
29	Racing Club Res.	13	−5	13
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	14	−11	13
31	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	13	−10	12
32	Banfield Res.	14	−12	12
33	Colón Res.	14	−11	11
34	Barracas Central Res.	13	−11	9
35	Platense Res.	14	−11	7
36	Ferro 2	14	−17	6