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Racing Club Res. v San Lorenzo Res.

Racing Club Res.

2–3Full time

San Lorenzo Res.

Reserve League · THU 22 OCT

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 22:00

Racing Club Res. 2–3 San Lorenzo Res. RACING CLUB RES. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Racing Club Res. win~~42%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.715

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Racing Club Res. win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Racing Club Res. 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
1′KICK-OFF Racing Club Res. v San Lorenzo Res.
30′San Lorenzo Res. find the net on 29′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–23–62
30′We said Racing Club Res. at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Racing Club Res. 0–1 San Lorenzo Res.
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Racing Club Res. win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' San Lorenzo Res. win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Racing Club Res. win 38%)
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 14–23–63
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Racing Club Res. win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
45′HALF-TIME Racing Club Res. 0–1 San Lorenzo Res.
46′SECOND HALF Racing Club Res. 0–1 San Lorenzo Res.
48′We said Racing Club Res. at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
61′A goal for San Lorenzo Res. on 60′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Racing Club Res. 0–2 San Lorenzo Res.
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Racing Club Res. win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
62′We said Racing Club Res. at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
66′San Lorenzo Res. score on 66′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–99
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Racing Club Res. 0–3 San Lorenzo Res.
67′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
78′Racing Club Res. find the net on 77′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
78′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–99
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Racing Club Res. 1–3 San Lorenzo Res.
81′A goal for Racing Club Res. on 80′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 1–11–88
81′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–11–88
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Racing Club Res. 2–3 San Lorenzo Res.
96′Racing Club Res. have ten men and San Lorenzo Res. ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–3 · 0–2–98
96′🟥 RED CARD · 90+6' San Lorenzo Res.
96′🟥 RED CARD · 90+6' Racing Club Res.
FTFULL TIME Racing Club Res. 2–3 San Lorenzo Res.
FTRacing Club Res. 2–3 San Lorenzo Res. · Racing Club Res. win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Racing Club Res. are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Racing Club Res. 42%, draw 26%, San Lorenzo Res. 32%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Racing Club Res. v San Lorenzo Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Racing Club Res. win42%

Draw26%

San Lorenzo Res. win32%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Racing Club Res.

San Lorenzo Res.

7Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	San Lorenzo Res.	13	+2	18
29	Racing Club Res.	13	−5	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · racing club res. winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

42% The market42%

Us42%

~~Market~~42%

We make Racing Club Res. a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Racing Club Res. v San Lorenzo Res.~~1.44 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 8 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 18~~29 v 17

~~The market · Racing Club Res. win~~42% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Racing Club Res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Racing Club Res. win	42%	42%	0
Draw	26%	28%	−2
San Lorenzo Res. win	32%	30%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	50%	−1
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	73%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Racing Club Res. or draw	68%	70%	−2
Racing Club Res. clean sheet	30%	–	–
San Lorenzo Res. clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.4 8.5 5.2 2.1 1 10.1 12.3 7.3 3.0 2 7.3 8.7 5.2 2.1 3 3.5 4.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Racing Club Res. down, San Lorenzo Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,676 Reserve League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 577 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.29 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Racing Club Res. at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). San Lorenzo Res. away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Racing Club Res., 1.21 for San Lorenzo Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.29

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–2 RAC · RAC 1–0 SAN · SAN 0–1 RAC · RAC 1–1 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 8 Sept

RACING CLUB RES.

WWLDDL4–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–4

SAN LORENZO RES.

LLLWWD0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	14	+20	33
2	Lanús Res.	14	+13	30
3	Estudiantes La Plata Res	14	+10	25
4	Boca Juniors Res.	13	+9	25
5	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	14	+1	25
6	Vélez Sársfield Res.	14	+12	24
7	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	+5	24
8	Rosario Central Res.	14	+2	24
9	River Plate Res.	14	+9	23
10	Deportivo Riestra Res.	13	+9	23
11	Talleres Córdoba Res.	14	+5	23
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	13	+2	21
13	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	0	21
14	Sarmiento Res.	14	+3	19
15	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	+3	18
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	13	+2	18
17	San Lorenzo Res.	13	+2	18
18	Instituto Res.	13	0	18
19	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	14	+3	17
20	Huracán Res.	13	+1	17
21	Quilmes 2	14	−3	17
22	Unión Santa Fe Res.	13	+4	16
23	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	0	16
24	Atlético Tucumán Res.	13	−4	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	−3	15
26	Independiente Riva. Res.	14	−6	15
27	Tigre Res.	14	−6	15
28	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	−5	14
29	Racing Club Res.	13	−5	13
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	14	−11	13
31	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	13	−10	12
32	Banfield Res.	14	−12	12
33	Colón Res.	14	−11	11
34	Barracas Central Res.	13	−11	9
35	Platense Res.	14	−11	7
36	Ferro 2	14	−17	6