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Quilmes 2 v Newell's Old Boys Res.

Quilmes 2

1–1Full time

Newell's Old Boys Res.

Reserve League · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 21:37

Quilmes 2 1–1 Newell's Old Boys Res. QUILMES 2 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Quilmes 2 win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.694

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Quilmes 2 win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Quilmes 2 was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–32–32
1′KICK-OFF Quilmes 2 v Newell's Old Boys Res.
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Quilmes 2 win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Quilmes 2 0–0 Newell's Old Boys Res.
46′SECOND HALF Quilmes 2 0–0 Newell's Old Boys Res.
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Quilmes 2 win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
53′Newell's Old Boys Res. find the net on 53′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–20–75
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Quilmes 2 0–1 Newell's Old Boys Res.
54′We said Quilmes 2 at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Quilmes 2 win: 36% at kick-off, 5% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Newell's Old Boys Res. win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
56′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 4–20–76
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Quilmes 2 1–1 Newell's Old Boys Res.
78′A goal for Quilmes 2 on 77′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 11–79–10
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Quilmes 2 win: 36% at kick-off, 11% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Newell's Old Boys Res. win 10%)
79′We said Quilmes 2 at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 10–80–9
80′We said Quilmes 2 at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Quilmes 2 win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
FTFULL TIME Quilmes 2 1–1 Newell's Old Boys Res.
FTQuilmes 2 1–1 Newell's Old Boys Res. · Quilmes 2 win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

Quilmes 2 win36%

Draw32%

Newell's Old Boys Res. win32%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Quilmes 2

Newell's Old Boys Res.

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Newell's Old Boys Res.	31	+12	49
9	Quilmes 2	30	+8	49

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · quilmes 2 winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Quilmes 2 a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Quilmes 2 win	36%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Newell's Old Boys Res. win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	57%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Quilmes 2 or draw	68%	–	–
Quilmes 2 clean sheet	41%	–	–
Newell's Old Boys Res. clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.4%

0123450 15.4 13.4 6.2 1 14.7 13.4 6.0 2 7.4 6.6 3.0 3 2.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Quilmes 2 down, Newell's Old Boys Res. across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,646 Reserve League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 547 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Quilmes 2 at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Newell's Old Boys Res. away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Quilmes 2, 0.91 for Newell's Old Boys Res.. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NEW 2–0 QUI

Form · last six in Reserve League

QUILMES 2

LWLWDD0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

NEWELL'S OLD BOYS RES.

LLWWDD0–2 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	32	+37	66
2	Independiente Res.	31	+35	63
3	Boca Juniors Res.	32	+33	62
4	Lanús Res.	31	+23	61
5	River Plate Res.	33	+18	57
6	Racing Club Res.	33	+5	50
7	Estudiantes La Plata Res	30	+17	49
8	Newell's Old Boys Res.	31	+12	49
9	Quilmes 2	30	+8	49
10	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	30	0	49
11	Deportivo Riestra Res.	30	+18	48
12	Rosario Central Res.	30	+4	46
13	Unión Santa Fe Res.	30	+11	45
14	Atlético Tucumán Res.	31	−6	45
15	Defensa y Justicia Res.	30	+13	44
16	Huracán Res.	30	+10	43
17	Talleres Córdoba Res.	30	+7	43
18	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	30	−1	43
19	San Lorenzo Res.	30	0	41
20	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	30	+7	40
21	Argentinos Juniors Res.	30	+1	39
22	Instituto Res.	30	−2	39
23	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	30	−17	34
24	Sarmiento Res.	30	−7	33
25	Independiente Riva. Res.	30	−10	33
26	Platense Res.	30	−12	33
27	Godoy Cruz Res.	30	−8	32
28	Banfield Res.	30	−16	32
29	Atl. Rafaela 2	30	−15	31
30	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	30	−21	31
31	Tigre Res.	30	−15	30
32	Aldosivi Res.	30	−15	29
33	Ferro 2	30	−18	28
34	Colón Res.	30	−17	26
35	Barracas Central Res.	30	−24	25
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	30	−55	18