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Platense Res. v Defensa y Justicia Res.

Platense Res.

0–1Full time

Defensa y Justicia Res.

Reserve League · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 21:30

Platense Res. 0–1 Defensa y Justicia Res. DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA RES. WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Defensa y Justicia Res. win~~40%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.547

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.446

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Defensa y Justicia Res. win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Defensa y Justicia Res. 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 33–27–40
1′KICK-OFF Platense Res. v Defensa y Justicia Res.
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Defensa y Justicia Res. win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Platense Res. 0–0 Defensa y Justicia Res.
45′SECOND HALF Platense Res. 0–0 Defensa y Justicia Res.
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Defensa y Justicia Res. win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
54′We said Defensa y Justicia Res. at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 25–47–28
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 27–41–32
63′We said Defensa y Justicia Res. at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–54–24
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Defensa y Justicia Res. win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
71′We said Defensa y Justicia Res. at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
78′We said Defensa y Justicia Res. at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 12–74–14
82′We said Defensa y Justicia Res. at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 0–1 · 0–8–91
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Platense Res. 0–1 Defensa y Justicia Res.
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Defensa y Justicia Res. win: 40% at kick-off, 91% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Defensa y Justicia Res. win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 8%)
83′83′ and it is 0–1: Defensa y Justicia Res. have scored. 0–1 · 0–7–92
87′We said Defensa y Justicia Res. at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Platense Res. 0–1 Defensa y Justicia Res.
FTPlatense Res. 0–1 Defensa y Justicia Res. · Defensa y Justicia Res. win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Platense Res. v Defensa y Justicia Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off

Platense Res. win33%

Draw27%

Defensa y Justicia Res. win40%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Platense Res.

Defensa y Justicia Res.

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	14	32
18	Platense Res.	18	-3	26

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · defensa y justicia res. winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off

40% The market46%

Us40%

~~Market~~46%

We make Defensa y Justicia Res. a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Platense Res. v Defensa y Justicia Res.~~1.16 – 1.30

~~Last six in Reserve League~~W0 D4 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 26 v 32~~18 v 9

~~The market · Defensa y Justicia Res. win~~46% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · defensa y justicia res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Platense Res. win	33%	26%	+7
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Defensa y Justicia Res. win	40%	46%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	45%	46%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	70%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	25%	−2
Platense Res. or draw	60%	54%	+6
Platense Res. clean sheet	28%	–	–
Defensa y Justicia Res. clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.9 11.0 7.2 3.2 1 9.8 12.9 8.2 3.6 2 5.7 7.3 4.8 2.1 3 2.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Platense Res. down, Defensa y Justicia Res. across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,651 Reserve League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 552 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.57 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Platense Res. at home: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Defensa y Justicia Res. away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Platense Res., 1.30 for Defensa y Justicia Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~DEF 4–0 PLA · PLA 1–2 DEF · DEF 1–0 PLA · DEF 1–1 PLA

Form · last six in Reserve League

PLATENSE RES.

DLDLDD1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA RES.

WDLWLD4–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	20	29	47
2	Boca Juniors Res.	20	24	39
3	Racing Club Res.	21	7	39
4	River Plate Res.	21	9	37
5	Independiente Res.	19	19	36
6	Lanús Res.	19	13	35
7	Newell's Old Boys Res.	19	9	34
8	Quilmes 2	18	8	33
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	14	32
10	Atlético Tucumán Res.	19	-2	30
11	Unión Santa Fe Res.	18	4	29
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	9	28
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	6	28
14	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	18	-2	27
15	Talleres Córdoba Res.	18	6	26
16	Huracán Res.	18	6	26
17	Rosario Central Res.	18	3	26
18	Platense Res.	18	-3	26
19	Deportivo Riestra Res.	18	7	25
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	0	24
21	Instituto Res.	18	-1	24
22	San Lorenzo Res.	18	-2	24
23	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	18	2	23
24	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	18	-3	23
25	Banfield Res.	18	-4	23
26	Ferro 2	18	-3	22
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	18	-12	19
28	Colón Res.	18	-8	18
29	Aldosivi Res.	18	-11	18
30	Barracas Central Res.	18	-13	17
31	Sarmiento Res.	18	-10	16
32	Tigre Res.	18	-10	16
33	Godoy Cruz Res.	18	-10	15
34	Atl. Rafaela 2	18	-15	12
35	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	18	-23	11
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	18	-43	8