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Newell's Old Boys Res. v Platense Res.

Newell's Old Boys Res.
2–1Full time
Platense Res.

Reserve League · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 21:30
Newell's Old Boys Res. 2–1 Platense Res. NEWELL'S OLD BOYS RES. WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Newell's Old Boys Res. win60%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.245
The market’s Brier score0.325

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Newell's Old Boys Res. win at 60%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Newell's Old Boys Res. was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–25–15
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Newell's Old Boys Res. v Platense Res.
  4. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Newell's Old Boys Res. win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
  5. 34′Platense Res. score on 34′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 20–30–51
  6. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Newell's Old Boys Res. 0–1 Platense Res.
  7. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Newell's Old Boys Res. win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
  8. 34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Platense Res. win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Newell's Old Boys Res. win 49%)
  9. 35′We said Newell's Old Boys Res. at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–30–51
  10. 36′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 19–30–51
  11. 44′Newell's Old Boys Res. find the net on 44′. 1–1. 1–1 · 45–41–14
  12. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Newell's Old Boys Res. 1–1 Platense Res.
  13. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Newell's Old Boys Res. win: 60% at kick-off, 45% now
  14. 45′We said Newell's Old Boys Res. at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–42–14
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Newell's Old Boys Res. 1–1 Platense Res.
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Newell's Old Boys Res. 1–1 Platense Res.
  17. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Platense Res. win 55%)
  18. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Newell's Old Boys Res. win: 60% at kick-off, 40% now
  19. 54′We said Newell's Old Boys Res. at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–48–13
  20. 59′A goal for Newell's Old Boys Res. on 59′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 88–11–1
  21. 59′We published Newell's Old Boys Res. at 60%. Our model now makes it 88%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
  22. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Newell's Old Boys Res. 2–1 Platense Res.
  23. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Newell's Old Boys Res. win: 60% at kick-off, 88% now
  24. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Newell's Old Boys Res. win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 51%)
  25. 60′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 88–11–1
  26. 67′We published Newell's Old Boys Res. at 60%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  27. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Newell's Old Boys Res. win: 60% at kick-off, 90% now
  28. 81′We published Newell's Old Boys Res. at 60%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  29. FTFULL TIME Newell's Old Boys Res. 2–1 Platense Res.
  30. FTNewell's Old Boys Res. 2–1 Platense Res. · Newell's Old Boys Res. win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Newell's Old Boys Res. are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Newell's Old Boys Res. 60%, draw 25%, Platense Res. 15%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Newell's Old Boys Res. v Platense Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Newell's Old Boys Res. win60%
Draw25%
Platense Res. win15%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Newell's Old Boys Res.

Platense Res.

7Days since last match6

Last match: 13 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

Last match: 14 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Clausura

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
23Newell's Old Boys Res.13+215
35Platense Res.13−107

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · newell's old boys res. winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
60% The market54%
Us60%
Market54%

We make Newell's Old Boys Res. a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Newell's Old Boys Res. v Platense Res.1.59 – 0.64
Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 9 SeptW2 D3 L1 · W0 D3 L3
Table places · points 15 v 723 v 35
The market · Newell's Old Boys Res. win54% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 18:35
Our probability · Newell's Old Boys Res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Newell's Old Boys Res. win60%54%+6
Draw25%27%−2
Platense Res. win15%20%−5
Over 2.5 goals38%44%−6
Both teams to score37%46%−9
Over 1.5 goals65%68%−3
Over 3.5 goals19%25%−6
Newell's Old Boys Res. or draw85%80%+5
Newell's Old Boys Res. clean sheet53%––
Platense Res. clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.0%
0123450 11.2 6.8 2.2 1 17.0 11.0 3.5 2 13.5 8.5 2.7 3 7.2 4.5 4 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Newell's Old Boys Res. down, Platense Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting3.14
Over 2.54 of 7
Both scored4 of 7
Last meetingsPLA 1–1 NEW · NEW 4–2 PLA · PLA 0–2 NEW · NEW 1–3 PLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 9 Sept

NEWELL'S OLD BOYS RES.

LWWDDD0–1 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

PLATENSE RES.

LDLDDL0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Clausura
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Independiente Res.13+1930
2Lanús Res.13+1027
3Boca Juniors Res.13+925
4Belgrano Córdoba Res.13+325
5Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 213+624
6Vélez Sársfield Res.13+1223
7Deportivo Riestra Res.13+923
8River Plate Res.13+922
9Estudiantes La Plata Res13+822
10Gimnasia Mendoza 213+221
11Rosario Central Res.13+121
12Talleres Córdoba Res.13+420
13Atl. Rafaela 213020
14Sarmiento Res.13+318
15Godoy Cruz Res.13+218
16San Lorenzo Res.13+218
17Instituto Res.13018
18Gimnasia La Plata Res.13+417
19Huracán Res.13+117
20Quilmes 213017
21Unión Santa Fe Res.13+416
22Atlético Tucumán Res.13−416
23Newell's Old Boys Res.13+215
24Defensa y Justicia Res.13015
25Argentinos Juniors Res.13−414
26Tigre Res.13−614
27Racing Club Res.13−513
28San Martín San Juan Res.13−1013
29Aldosivi Res.13−412
30Independiente Riva. Res.13−712
31Central Córdoba SdE Res.13−1012
32Banfield Res.13−1112
33Barracas Central Res.13−119
34Colón Res.13−128
35Platense Res.13−107
36Ferro 213−166

The competition's standings before kick-off.