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Lanús Res. v Quilmes 2

Lanús Res.
4–1Full time
Quilmes 2

Reserve League · WED 21 OCT

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 21:30
Lanús Res. 4–1 Quilmes 2 LANÚS RES. WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Lanús Res. win50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.382

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lanús Res. win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Lanús Res. 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Lanús Res. v Quilmes 2
  4. 6′A goal for Lanús Res. on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
  5. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Lanús Res. 1–0 Quilmes 2
  6. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Lanús Res. win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
  7. 7′We said Lanús Res. at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
  8. 18′Lanús Res. score on 18′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
  9. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Lanús Res. 2–0 Quilmes 2
  10. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Lanús Res. win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
  11. 19′We said Lanús Res. at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–2
  12. 38′We said Lanús Res. at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Lanús Res. 2–0 Quilmes 2
  14. 46′Quilmes 2 find the net on 46′. 2–1. 2–1 · 79–17–4
  15. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Lanús Res. 2–1 Quilmes 2
  16. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Lanús Res. win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
  17. 48′We said Lanús Res. at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 2–1 · 79–17–4
  18. 49′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–17–4
  19. 50′We said Lanús Res. at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
  20. 65′A goal for Lanús Res. on 65′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  21. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Lanús Res. 3–1 Quilmes 2
  22. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Lanús Res. win: 50% at kick-off, 98% now
  23. 66′We said Lanús Res. at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  24. 67′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  25. 76′Lanús Res. score on 76′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  26. 76′We said Lanús Res. at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  27. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Lanús Res. 4–1 Quilmes 2
  28. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Lanús Res. win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
  29. 78′5 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  30. 83′Quilmes 2 find the net on 82′. 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  31. 83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Lanús Res. 4–2 Quilmes 2
  32. 84′GOAL DISALLOWED · 84' Quilmes 2
  33. FTFULL TIME Lanús Res. 4–1 Quilmes 2
  34. FTLanús Res. 4–1 Quilmes 2 · Lanús Res. win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lanús Res. are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lanús Res. 50%, draw 26%, Quilmes 2 24%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Lanús Res. v Quilmes 2Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Lanús Res. win50%
Draw26%
Quilmes 2 win24%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lanús Res.

Quilmes 2

7Days since last match8

Last match: 14 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

Last match: 13 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Clausura

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Lanús Res.13+1027
21Quilmes 213017

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lanús res. winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
50% The market–
Us50%

We make Lanús Res. a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Lanús Res. v Quilmes 21.52 – 0.98
Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 8 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 27 v 172 v 21

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lanús Res. win50%––
Draw26%––
Quilmes 2 win24%––
Over 2.5 goals45%––
Both teams to score48%––
Over 1.5 goals71%––
Over 3.5 goals24%––
Lanús Res. or draw76%––
Lanús Res. clean sheet38%––
Quilmes 2 clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%
0123450 8.7 8.0 4.0 1 12.3 12.3 5.9 2 9.4 9.1 4.4 3 4.8 4.6 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lanús Res. down, Quilmes 2 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsQUI 0–2 LAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 8 Sept

LANÚS RES.

LDWWWD1–4 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 4–4

QUILMES 2

WLWDDD2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Clausura
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Independiente Res.14+2033
2Lanús Res.13+1027
3Boca Juniors Res.13+925
4Belgrano Córdoba Res.13+325
5Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 214+524
6Rosario Central Res.14+224
7Vélez Sársfield Res.13+1223
8Deportivo Riestra Res.13+923
9River Plate Res.13+922
10Estudiantes La Plata Res13+822
11Gimnasia Mendoza 213+221
12Atl. Rafaela 214021
13Talleres Córdoba Res.13+420
14Sarmiento Res.14+319
15Newell's Old Boys Res.14+318
16Godoy Cruz Res.13+218
17San Lorenzo Res.13+218
18Instituto Res.13018
19Gimnasia La Plata Res.13+417
20Huracán Res.13+117
21Quilmes 213017
22Unión Santa Fe Res.13+416
23Defensa y Justicia Res.14016
24Atlético Tucumán Res.13−416
25Aldosivi Res.14−315
26Tigre Res.14−615
27Argentinos Juniors Res.14−514
28Racing Club Res.13−513
29San Martín San Juan Res.13−1013
30Independiente Riva. Res.13−712
31Central Córdoba SdE Res.13−1012
32Banfield Res.14−1212
33Barracas Central Res.13−119
34Colón Res.13−128
35Platense Res.14−117
36Ferro 213−166

The competition's standings before kick-off.