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Instituto Res. v River Plate Res.

Instituto Res.

3–2Full time

River Plate Res.

Reserve League · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 21:37

Instituto Res. 3–2 River Plate Res. RIVER PLATE RES. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said River Plate Res. win~~40%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.724

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.662

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said River Plate Res. win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: River Plate Res. was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 31–29–40
1′KICK-OFF Instituto Res. v River Plate Res.
15′A goal for Instituto Res. on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 62–23–15
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Instituto Res. 1–0 River Plate Res.
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' River Plate Res. win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Instituto Res. win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was River Plate Res. win 15%)
16′We said River Plate Res. at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 65–24–11
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' River Plate Res. win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
40′We said River Plate Res. at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Instituto Res. 1–1 River Plate Res.
41′40′ and it is 1–1: River Plate Res. have scored. 1–1 · 26–42–32
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' River Plate Res. win: 40% at kick-off, 32% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Instituto Res. win 26%)
45′HALF-TIME Instituto Res. 1–1 River Plate Res.
46′SECOND HALF Instituto Res. 1–1 River Plate Res.
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' River Plate Res. win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
53′We said River Plate Res. at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 23–49–28
63′We said River Plate Res. at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 19–57–24
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' River Plate Res. win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
70′We said River Plate Res. at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 16–65–19
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Instituto Res. 2–1 River Plate Res.
78′Instituto Res. find the net on 77′. 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' River Plate Res. win: 40% at kick-off, 1% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Instituto Res. win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
79′We said River Plate Res. at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Instituto Res. 2–2 River Plate Res.
80′A goal for River Plate Res. on 79′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 9–79–11
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' River Plate Res. win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Instituto Res. win 9%)
81′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 9–81–10
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' River Plate Res. win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
86′86′ and it is 3–2: Instituto Res. have scored. 3–2 · 94–6–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Instituto Res. 3–2 River Plate Res.
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' River Plate Res. win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Instituto Res. win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
88′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Instituto Res. 3–2 River Plate Res.
FTInstituto Res. 3–2 River Plate Res. · River Plate Res. win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

Instituto Res. win31%

Draw29%

River Plate Res. win40%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Instituto Res.

River Plate Res.

6Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	River Plate Res.	33	+18	57
22	Instituto Res.	30	−2	39

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · river plate res. winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make River Plate Res. a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · river plate res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Instituto Res. win	31%	34%	−3
Draw	29%	29%	0
River Plate Res. win	40%	37%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	38%	48%	−9
Both teams to score	45%	53%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	65%	70%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	19%	28%	−9
Instituto Res. or draw	60%	63%	−3
Instituto Res. clean sheet	30%	–	–
River Plate Res. clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 11.1 12.9 7.9 3.2 1 10.9 13.2 7.9 3.2 2 5.6 6.7 4.0 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Instituto Res. down, River Plate Res. across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,646 Reserve League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 547 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.43 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Instituto Res. at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). River Plate Res. away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Instituto Res., 1.21 for River Plate Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.43

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~RIV 1–0 INS · INS 1–0 RIV · RIV 2–2 INS · INS 1–1 RIV

Form · last six in Reserve League

INSTITUTO RES.

WDLLDD1–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–1

RIVER PLATE RES.

WDDDWD1–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	32	+37	66
2	Independiente Res.	31	+35	63
3	Boca Juniors Res.	32	+33	62
4	Lanús Res.	31	+23	61
5	River Plate Res.	33	+18	57
6	Racing Club Res.	33	+5	50
7	Estudiantes La Plata Res	30	+17	49
8	Newell's Old Boys Res.	31	+12	49
9	Quilmes 2	30	+8	49
10	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	30	0	49
11	Deportivo Riestra Res.	30	+18	48
12	Rosario Central Res.	30	+4	46
13	Unión Santa Fe Res.	30	+11	45
14	Atlético Tucumán Res.	31	−6	45
15	Defensa y Justicia Res.	30	+13	44
16	Huracán Res.	30	+10	43
17	Talleres Córdoba Res.	30	+7	43
18	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	30	−1	43
19	San Lorenzo Res.	30	0	41
20	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	30	+7	40
21	Argentinos Juniors Res.	30	+1	39
22	Instituto Res.	30	−2	39
23	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	30	−17	34
24	Sarmiento Res.	30	−7	33
25	Independiente Riva. Res.	30	−10	33
26	Platense Res.	30	−12	33
27	Godoy Cruz Res.	30	−8	32
28	Banfield Res.	30	−16	32
29	Atl. Rafaela 2	30	−15	31
30	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	30	−21	31
31	Tigre Res.	30	−15	30
32	Aldosivi Res.	30	−15	29
33	Ferro 2	30	−18	28
34	Colón Res.	30	−17	26
35	Barracas Central Res.	30	−24	25
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	30	−55	18