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Independiente Riva. Res. v San Martín San Juan Res.

Independiente Riva. Res.

3–2Full time

San Martín San Juan Res.

Reserve League · WED 21 OCT

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 21:30

Independiente Riva. Res. 3–2 San Martín San Juan Res. INDEPENDIENTE RIVA. RES. WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Independiente Riva. Res. win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.256

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Independiente Riva. Res. win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Independiente Riva. Res. was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–21–20
1′KICK-OFF Independiente Riva. Res. v San Martín San Juan Res.
3′Independiente Riva. Res. find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–8
3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Independiente Riva. Res. 1–0 San Martín San Juan Res.
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Independiente Riva. Res. win: 59% at kick-off, 80% now
4′We published Independiente Riva. Res. at 59%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–8
27′A goal for Independiente Riva. Res. on 27′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Independiente Riva. Res. 2–0 San Martín San Juan Res.
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Independiente Riva. Res. win: 59% at kick-off, 94% now
28′We published Independiente Riva. Res. at 59%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
37′We published Independiente Riva. Res. at 59%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Independiente Riva. Res. 2–0 San Martín San Juan Res.
46′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
46′SECOND HALF Independiente Riva. Res. 2–0 San Martín San Juan Res.
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Independiente Riva. Res. win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
81′We published Independiente Riva. Res. at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′Independiente Riva. Res. score on 81′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Independiente Riva. Res. 3–0 San Martín San Juan Res.
86′San Martín San Juan Res. find the net on 85′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
86′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Independiente Riva. Res. 3–1 San Martín San Juan Res.
93′A goal for San Martín San Juan Res. on 90′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Independiente Riva. Res. 3–2 San Martín San Juan Res.
94′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Independiente Riva. Res. 3–2 San Martín San Juan Res.
FTIndependiente Riva. Res. 3–2 San Martín San Juan Res. · Independiente Riva. Res. win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Independiente Riva. Res. are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Independiente Riva. Res. 59%, draw 21%, San Martín San Juan Res. 20%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Independiente Riva. Res. v San Martín San Juan Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Independiente Riva. Res. win59%

Draw21%

San Martín San Juan Res. win20%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Independiente Riva. Res.

San Martín San Juan Res.

7Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
29	San Martín San Juan Res.	13	−10	13
30	Independiente Riva. Res.	13	−7	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · independiente riva. res. winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Independiente Riva. Res. a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Independiente Riva. Res. v San Martín San Juan Res.~~2.06 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 9 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 13~~30 v 29

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Independiente Riva. Res. win	59%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
San Martín San Juan Res. win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Independiente Riva. Res. or draw	80%	–	–
Independiente Riva. Res. clean sheet	33%	–	–
San Martín San Juan Res. clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.5 4.6 2.7 1 8.5 9.7 5.3 2.0 2 8.8 9.7 5.4 2.0 3 6.0 6.6 3.7 4 3.1 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Independiente Riva. Res. down, San Martín San Juan Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,670 Reserve League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.1% of games this season, across 571 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Independiente Riva. Res. at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). San Martín San Juan Res. away: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Independiente Riva. Res., 1.12 for San Martín San Juan Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–2 IND

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 9 Sept

INDEPENDIENTE RIVA. RES.

WDLDLW1–0 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 4–1

SAN MARTÍN SAN JUAN RES.

DLLLLW1–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	14	+20	33
2	Lanús Res.	13	+10	27
3	Boca Juniors Res.	13	+9	25
4	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	13	+3	25
5	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	+5	24
6	Rosario Central Res.	14	+2	24
7	Vélez Sársfield Res.	13	+12	23
8	Deportivo Riestra Res.	13	+9	23
9	River Plate Res.	13	+9	22
10	Estudiantes La Plata Res	13	+8	22
11	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	13	+2	21
12	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	0	21
13	Talleres Córdoba Res.	13	+4	20
14	Sarmiento Res.	14	+3	19
15	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	+3	18
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	13	+2	18
17	San Lorenzo Res.	13	+2	18
18	Instituto Res.	13	0	18
19	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	13	+4	17
20	Huracán Res.	13	+1	17
21	Quilmes 2	13	0	17
22	Unión Santa Fe Res.	13	+4	16
23	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	0	16
24	Atlético Tucumán Res.	13	−4	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	−3	15
26	Tigre Res.	14	−6	15
27	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	−5	14
28	Racing Club Res.	13	−5	13
29	San Martín San Juan Res.	13	−10	13
30	Independiente Riva. Res.	13	−7	12
31	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	13	−10	12
32	Banfield Res.	14	−12	12
33	Barracas Central Res.	13	−11	9
34	Colón Res.	13	−12	8
35	Platense Res.	14	−11	7
36	Ferro 2	13	−16	6