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Independiente Res. v Huracán Res.

Independiente Res.

3–0Full time

Huracán Res.

Reserve League · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 21:37

Independiente Res. 3–0 Huracán Res. INDEPENDIENTE RES. WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Independiente Res. win~~50%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.372

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.391

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Independiente Res. win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Independiente Res. 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
1′KICK-OFF Independiente Res. v Huracán Res.
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Independiente Res. 1–0 Huracán Res.
8′Independiente Res. find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Independiente Res. win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
9′We said Independiente Res. at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
21′A goal for Independiente Res. on 21′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Independiente Res. 2–0 Huracán Res.
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Independiente Res. win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
22′We said Independiente Res. at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
38′We said Independiente Res. at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Independiente Res. 2–0 Huracán Res.
46′SECOND HALF Independiente Res. 2–0 Huracán Res.
56′56′ and it is 3–0: Independiente Res. have scored. 3–0 · 100–0–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Independiente Res. 3–0 Huracán Res.
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Independiente Res. win: 50% at kick-off, 100% now
57′We said Independiente Res. at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
58′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Independiente Res. 3–0 Huracán Res.
FTIndependiente Res. 3–0 Huracán Res. · Independiente Res. win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

Independiente Res. win50%

Draw26%

Huracán Res. win24%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Independiente Res.

Huracán Res.

6Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Independiente Res.	31	+35	63
16	Huracán Res.	30	+10	43

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · independiente res. winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

50% The market49%

Us50%

~~Market~~49%

We make Independiente Res. a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · independiente res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Independiente Res. win	50%	49%	+1
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Huracán Res. win	24%	23%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	47%	0
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	26%	−1
Independiente Res. or draw	76%	77%	−1
Independiente Res. clean sheet	37%	–	–
Huracán Res. clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.0 7.6 3.9 1 11.9 12.0 5.9 2.0 2 9.4 9.2 4.6 3 4.9 4.8 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Independiente Res. down, Huracán Res. across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,646 Reserve League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 547 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Independiente Res. at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Huracán Res. away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Independiente Res., 1.00 for Huracán Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~HUR 1–0 IND · HUR 3–1 IND · HUR 1–1 IND · IND 0–1 HUR

Form · last six in Reserve League

INDEPENDIENTE RES.

DLWWWD1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

HURACÁN RES.

WLWWDW5–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	32	+37	66
2	Independiente Res.	31	+35	63
3	Boca Juniors Res.	32	+33	62
4	Lanús Res.	31	+23	61
5	River Plate Res.	33	+18	57
6	Racing Club Res.	33	+5	50
7	Estudiantes La Plata Res	30	+17	49
8	Newell's Old Boys Res.	31	+12	49
9	Quilmes 2	30	+8	49
10	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	30	0	49
11	Deportivo Riestra Res.	30	+18	48
12	Rosario Central Res.	30	+4	46
13	Unión Santa Fe Res.	30	+11	45
14	Atlético Tucumán Res.	31	−6	45
15	Defensa y Justicia Res.	30	+13	44
16	Huracán Res.	30	+10	43
17	Talleres Córdoba Res.	30	+7	43
18	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	30	−1	43
19	San Lorenzo Res.	30	0	41
20	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	30	+7	40
21	Argentinos Juniors Res.	30	+1	39
22	Instituto Res.	30	−2	39
23	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	30	−17	34
24	Sarmiento Res.	30	−7	33
25	Independiente Riva. Res.	30	−10	33
26	Platense Res.	30	−12	33
27	Godoy Cruz Res.	30	−8	32
28	Banfield Res.	30	−16	32
29	Atl. Rafaela 2	30	−15	31
30	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	30	−21	31
31	Tigre Res.	30	−15	30
32	Aldosivi Res.	30	−15	29
33	Ferro 2	30	−18	28
34	Colón Res.	30	−17	26
35	Barracas Central Res.	30	−24	25
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	30	−55	18