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Huracán Res. v Boca Juniors Res.

Huracán Res.

1–0Full time

Boca Juniors Res.

Reserve League · THU 22 OCT

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 22:00

Huracán Res. 1–0 Boca Juniors Res. BOCA JUNIORS RES. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Boca Juniors Res. win~~41%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.793

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.981

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Boca Juniors Res. win at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF Huracán Res. v Boca Juniors Res.
2′Little has changed for our model: Boca Juniors Res. 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 27–32–41
21′Huracán Res. score on 20′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 63–24–13
21′We said Boca Juniors Res. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 63–24–13
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Huracán Res. 1–0 Boca Juniors Res.
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Boca Juniors Res. win: 41% at kick-off, 13% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Huracán Res. win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Boca Juniors Res. win 38%)
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Boca Juniors Res. win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 65–24–11
37′We said Boca Juniors Res. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
45′HALF-TIME Huracán Res. 1–0 Boca Juniors Res.
46′SECOND HALF Huracán Res. 1–0 Boca Juniors Res.
59′We said Boca Juniors Res. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–20–4
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Boca Juniors Res. win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME Huracán Res. 1–0 Boca Juniors Res.
FTHuracán Res. 1–0 Boca Juniors Res. · Boca Juniors Res. win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Boca Juniors Res. are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Huracán Res. 27%, draw 31%, Boca Juniors Res. 41%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Huracán Res. v Boca Juniors Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Huracán Res. win27%

Draw31%

Boca Juniors Res. win41%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Huracán Res.

Boca Juniors Res.

9Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

Last match: 15 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Boca Juniors Res.	13	+9	25
20	Huracán Res.	13	+1	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · boca juniors res. winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

41% The market52%

Us41%

~~Market~~52%

We make Boca Juniors Res. a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Huracán Res. v Boca Juniors Res.~~0.84 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 9 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 25~~20 v 4

~~The market · Boca Juniors Res. win~~52% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Boca Juniors Res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Huracán Res. win	27%	20%	+7
Draw	31%	28%	+3
Boca Juniors Res. win	41%	52%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	31%	42%	−11
Both teams to score	38%	45%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	58%	66%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	13%	23%	−10
Huracán Res. or draw	59%	48%	+11
Huracán Res. clean sheet	33%	–	–
Boca Juniors Res. clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.6%

0123450 14.7 15.6 8.7 3.2 1 11.9 13.3 7.2 2.7 2 5.1 5.5 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Huracán Res. down, Boca Juniors Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,676 Reserve League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 577 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Huracán Res. at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Boca Juniors Res. away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.84 goals for Huracán Res., 1.10 for Boca Juniors Res.. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BOC 1–0 HUR · HUR 2–0 BOC · BOC 0–0 HUR · BOC 0–0 HUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 9 Sept

HURACÁN RES.

LWWDWL1–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

BOCA JUNIORS RES.

WDDLWW2–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	14	+20	33
2	Lanús Res.	14	+13	30
3	Estudiantes La Plata Res	14	+10	25
4	Boca Juniors Res.	13	+9	25
5	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	14	+1	25
6	Vélez Sársfield Res.	14	+12	24
7	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	+5	24
8	Rosario Central Res.	14	+2	24
9	River Plate Res.	14	+9	23
10	Deportivo Riestra Res.	13	+9	23
11	Talleres Córdoba Res.	14	+5	23
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	13	+2	21
13	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	0	21
14	Sarmiento Res.	14	+3	19
15	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	+3	18
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	13	+2	18
17	San Lorenzo Res.	13	+2	18
18	Instituto Res.	13	0	18
19	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	14	+3	17
20	Huracán Res.	13	+1	17
21	Quilmes 2	14	−3	17
22	Unión Santa Fe Res.	13	+4	16
23	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	0	16
24	Atlético Tucumán Res.	13	−4	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	−3	15
26	Independiente Riva. Res.	14	−6	15
27	Tigre Res.	14	−6	15
28	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	−5	14
29	Racing Club Res.	13	−5	13
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	14	−11	13
31	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	13	−10	12
32	Banfield Res.	14	−12	12
33	Colón Res.	14	−11	11
34	Barracas Central Res.	13	−11	9
35	Platense Res.	14	−11	7
36	Ferro 2	14	−17	6