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Godoy Cruz Res. v Instituto Res.

Godoy Cruz Res.

1–1Full time

Instituto Res.

Reserve League · THU 22 OCT

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 22:00

Godoy Cruz Res. 1–1 Instituto Res. GODOY CRUZ RES. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Godoy Cruz Res. win~~36%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.745

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.766

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Godoy Cruz Res. win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Godoy Cruz Res. was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–30–34
1′KICK-OFF Godoy Cruz Res. v Instituto Res.
15′A goal for Instituto Res. on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–22–65
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Godoy Cruz Res. 0–1 Instituto Res.
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Godoy Cruz Res. win: 36% at kick-off, 13% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Instituto Res. win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Godoy Cruz Res. win 35%)
16′We said Godoy Cruz Res. at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–22–65
29′Godoy Cruz Res. score on 28′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 32–37–30
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Godoy Cruz Res. 1–1 Instituto Res.
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Godoy Cruz Res. win: 36% at kick-off, 32% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Instituto Res. win 68%)
45′HALF-TIME Godoy Cruz Res. 1–1 Instituto Res.
46′SECOND HALF Godoy Cruz Res. 1–1 Instituto Res.
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Godoy Cruz Res. win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
57′We said Godoy Cruz Res. at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–23
66′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–1 · 20–61–19
68′We said Godoy Cruz Res. at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–18
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Godoy Cruz Res. win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
82′We said Godoy Cruz Res. at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Godoy Cruz Res. win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
89′We said Godoy Cruz Res. at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
90′A red card for Godoy Cruz Res. on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 4–93–3
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Godoy Cruz Res.
FTFULL TIME Godoy Cruz Res. 1–1 Instituto Res.
FTGodoy Cruz Res. 1–1 Instituto Res. · Godoy Cruz Res. win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Godoy Cruz Res. just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Godoy Cruz Res. 36%, draw 30%, Instituto Res. 34%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Godoy Cruz Res. v Instituto Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Godoy Cruz Res. win36%

Draw30%

Instituto Res. win34%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Godoy Cruz Res.

Instituto Res.

7Days since last match9

Last match: 15 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

Last match: 13 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	13	+2	18
18	Instituto Res.	13	0	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · godoy cruz res. winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 22 Oct 03:50 · locked at kick-off

36% The market41%

Us36%

~~Market~~41%

We make Godoy Cruz Res. a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Godoy Cruz Res. v Instituto Res.~~1.12 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 9 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 18~~16 v 18

~~The market · Godoy Cruz Res. win~~41% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Godoy Cruz Res. win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Godoy Cruz Res. win	36%	41%	−5
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Instituto Res. win	34%	30%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	37%	47%	−10
Both teams to score	44%	52%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	64%	70%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	18%	28%	−10
Godoy Cruz Res. or draw	66%	70%	−4
Godoy Cruz Res. clean sheet	35%	–	–
Instituto Res. clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.6 11.9 6.4 2.3 1 12.4 13.4 7.0 2.5 2 7.0 7.4 3.9 3 2.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Godoy Cruz Res. down, Instituto Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,676 Reserve League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 577 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.86 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Godoy Cruz Res. at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Instituto Res. away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Godoy Cruz Res., 1.07 for Instituto Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.86

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~INS 2–1 GOD · GOD 1–3 INS · INS 1–0 GOD · GOD 0–1 INS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 9 Sept

GODOY CRUZ RES.

WWWLDD3–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–0

INSTITUTO RES.

DLLDDW2–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	14	+20	33
2	Lanús Res.	14	+13	30
3	Estudiantes La Plata Res	14	+10	25
4	Boca Juniors Res.	13	+9	25
5	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	14	+1	25
6	Vélez Sársfield Res.	14	+12	24
7	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	+5	24
8	Rosario Central Res.	14	+2	24
9	River Plate Res.	14	+9	23
10	Deportivo Riestra Res.	13	+9	23
11	Talleres Córdoba Res.	14	+5	23
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	13	+2	21
13	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	0	21
14	Sarmiento Res.	14	+3	19
15	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	+3	18
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	13	+2	18
17	San Lorenzo Res.	13	+2	18
18	Instituto Res.	13	0	18
19	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	14	+3	17
20	Huracán Res.	13	+1	17
21	Quilmes 2	14	−3	17
22	Unión Santa Fe Res.	13	+4	16
23	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	0	16
24	Atlético Tucumán Res.	13	−4	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	−3	15
26	Independiente Riva. Res.	14	−6	15
27	Tigre Res.	14	−6	15
28	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	−5	14
29	Racing Club Res.	13	−5	13
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	14	−11	13
31	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	13	−10	12
32	Banfield Res.	14	−12	12
33	Colón Res.	14	−11	11
34	Barracas Central Res.	13	−11	9
35	Platense Res.	14	−11	7
36	Ferro 2	14	−17	6