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Gimnasia Mendoza 2 v Unión Santa Fe Res.

Gimnasia Mendoza 2

18:00Upcoming

Unión Santa Fe Res.

Reserve League · WED 28 OCT · Victor Legrotaglie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Gimnasia Mendoza 2DrawUnión Santa Fe Res.

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gimnasia Mendoza 2 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gimnasia Mendoza 2 40%, draw 30%, Unión Santa Fe Res. 31%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Gimnasia Mendoza 2 v Unión Santa Fe Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win40%

Draw30%

Unión Santa Fe Res. win31%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueVictor Legrotaglie

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gimnasia Mendoza 2

Unión Santa Fe Res.

6Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	14	+2	22
20	Unión Santa Fe Res.	14	+4	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gimnasia mendoza 2 winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Gimnasia Mendoza 2 a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gimnasia Mendoza 2 v Unión Santa Fe Res.~~1.18 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 22 v 17~~12 v 20

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win	40%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Unión Santa Fe Res. win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 or draw	69%	–	–
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 clean sheet	38%	–	–
Unión Santa Fe Res. clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.9 11.2 5.6 1 13.3 13.3 6.5 2.2 2 7.9 7.7 3.8 3 3.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimnasia Mendoza 2 down, Unión Santa Fe Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,682 Reserve League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 583 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Unión Santa Fe Res. away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Gimnasia Mendoza 2, 0.99 for Unión Santa Fe Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~UNI 0–2 GIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 16 Sept

GIMNASIA MENDOZA 2

WWDDDD1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

UNIÓN SANTA FE RES.

WLLWLD5–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	14	+20	33
2	Lanús Res.	14	+13	30
3	Deportivo Riestra Res.	14	+11	26
4	Estudiantes La Plata Res	14	+10	25
5	Boca Juniors Res.	14	+8	25
6	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	14	+1	25
7	Vélez Sársfield Res.	14	+12	24
8	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	+5	24
9	Rosario Central Res.	14	+2	24
10	River Plate Res.	14	+9	23
11	Talleres Córdoba Res.	14	+5	23
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	14	+2	22
13	San Lorenzo Res.	14	+3	21
14	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	0	21
15	Huracán Res.	14	+2	20
16	Sarmiento Res.	14	+3	19
17	Godoy Cruz Res.	14	+2	19
18	Instituto Res.	14	0	19
19	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	+3	18
20	Unión Santa Fe Res.	14	+4	17
21	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	14	+3	17
22	Quilmes 2	14	−3	17
23	Atlético Tucumán Res.	14	−4	17
24	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	0	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	−3	15
26	Independiente Riva. Res.	14	−6	15
27	Tigre Res.	14	−6	15
28	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	−5	14
29	Racing Club Res.	14	−6	13
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	14	−11	13
31	Banfield Res.	14	−12	12
32	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	14	−12	12
33	Colón Res.	14	−11	11
34	Barracas Central Res.	14	−11	10
35	Platense Res.	14	−11	7
36	Ferro 2	14	−17	6