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Gimnasia La Plata Res. v Talleres Córdoba Res.

Gimnasia La Plata Res.

0–1Full time

Talleres Córdoba Res.

Reserve League · WED 21 OCT

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 21:30

Gimnasia La Plata Res. 0–1 Talleres Córdoba Res. GIMNASIA LA PLATA RES. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gimnasia La Plata Res. win~~45%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.834

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.682

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gimnasia La Plata Res. win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–29–26
1′KICK-OFF Gimnasia La Plata Res. v Talleres Córdoba Res.
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Gimnasia La Plata Res. win 38%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Gimnasia La Plata Res. win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
45′HALF-TIME Gimnasia La Plata Res. 0–0 Talleres Córdoba Res.
46′SECOND HALF Gimnasia La Plata Res. 0–0 Talleres Córdoba Res.
48′We said Gimnasia La Plata Res. at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–45–21
57′We said Gimnasia La Plata Res. at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Gimnasia La Plata Res. win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
66′Gimnasia La Plata Res. are down to ten from 66′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 24–60–16
66′🟥 RED CARD · 66' Gimnasia La Plata Res.
67′We said Gimnasia La Plata Res. at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–61–15
68′Talleres Córdoba Res. find the net on 68′. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–19–77
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Gimnasia La Plata Res. 0–1 Talleres Córdoba Res.
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Gimnasia La Plata Res. win: 45% at kick-off, 3% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Talleres Córdoba Res. win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 61%)
69′We said Gimnasia La Plata Res. at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–1 · 3–19–78
FTFULL TIME Gimnasia La Plata Res. 0–1 Talleres Córdoba Res.
FTGimnasia La Plata Res. 0–1 Talleres Córdoba Res. · Gimnasia La Plata Res. win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gimnasia La Plata Res. are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 45%, draw 29%, Talleres Córdoba Res. 26%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Gimnasia La Plata Res. v Talleres Córdoba Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Gimnasia La Plata Res. win45%

Draw29%

Talleres Córdoba Res. win26%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gimnasia La Plata Res.

Talleres Córdoba Res.

8Days since last match6

Last match: 13 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

Last match: 15 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Talleres Córdoba Res.	13	+4	20
19	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	13	+4	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gimnasia la plata res. winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 16 Oct 00:06 · locked at kick-off

45% The market37%

Us45%

~~Market~~37%

We make Gimnasia La Plata Res. a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gimnasia La Plata Res. v Talleres Córdoba Res.~~1.30 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 8 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 20~~19 v 13

~~The market · Gimnasia La Plata Res. win~~37% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gimnasia La Plata Res. win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimnasia La Plata Res. win	45%	37%	+8
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Talleres Córdoba Res. win	26%	33%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	38%	46%	−8
Both teams to score	43%	52%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	65%	70%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	19%	27%	−8
Gimnasia La Plata Res. or draw	74%	67%	+7
Gimnasia La Plata Res. clean sheet	40%	–	–
Talleres Córdoba Res. clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 11.3 9.8 4.6 1 14.0 13.0 5.9 2 9.2 8.3 3.8 3 4.0 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimnasia La Plata Res. down, Talleres Córdoba Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,670 Reserve League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.1% of games this season, across 571 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.86 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gimnasia La Plata Res. at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Talleres Córdoba Res. away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Gimnasia La Plata Res., 0.91 for Talleres Córdoba Res.. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.86

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~TAL 1–2 GIM · GIM 1–0 TAL · TAL 1–1 GIM · TAL 2–0 GIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 8 Sept

GIMNASIA LA PLATA RES.

DWWLDL0–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

TALLERES CÓRDOBA RES.

WLDWLW2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	14	+20	33
2	Lanús Res.	13	+10	27
3	Boca Juniors Res.	13	+9	25
4	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	13	+3	25
5	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	+5	24
6	Rosario Central Res.	14	+2	24
7	Vélez Sársfield Res.	13	+12	23
8	Deportivo Riestra Res.	13	+9	23
9	River Plate Res.	13	+9	22
10	Estudiantes La Plata Res	13	+8	22
11	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	13	+2	21
12	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	0	21
13	Talleres Córdoba Res.	13	+4	20
14	Sarmiento Res.	14	+3	19
15	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	+3	18
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	13	+2	18
17	San Lorenzo Res.	13	+2	18
18	Instituto Res.	13	0	18
19	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	13	+4	17
20	Huracán Res.	13	+1	17
21	Quilmes 2	13	0	17
22	Unión Santa Fe Res.	13	+4	16
23	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	0	16
24	Atlético Tucumán Res.	13	−4	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	−3	15
26	Tigre Res.	14	−6	15
27	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	−5	14
28	Racing Club Res.	13	−5	13
29	San Martín San Juan Res.	13	−10	13
30	Independiente Riva. Res.	13	−7	12
31	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	13	−10	12
32	Banfield Res.	14	−12	12
33	Barracas Central Res.	13	−11	9
34	Colón Res.	13	−12	8
35	Platense Res.	14	−11	7
36	Ferro 2	13	−16	6