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Estudiantes La Plata Res v Lanús Res.

Estudiantes La Plata Res

4–4Full time

Lanús Res.

Reserve League · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 21:30

Estudiantes La Plata Res 4–4 Lanús Res. ESTUDIANTES LA PLATA RES WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Estudiantes La Plata Res win~~51%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.894

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.780

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay24 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Estudiantes La Plata Res win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Estudiantes La Plata Res 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
1′KICK-OFF Estudiantes La Plata Res v Lanús Res.
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Estudiantes La Plata Res 0–1 Lanús Res.
29′29′ and it is 0–2: Lanús Res. have scored. 0–2 · 6–13–81
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Estudiantes La Plata Res 0–2 Lanús Res.
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Estudiantes La Plata Res win: 51% at kick-off, 6% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Lanús Res. win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Estudiantes La Plata Res win 6%)
30′We said Estudiantes La Plata Res at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–2 · 6–13–81
37′Estudiantes La Plata Res find the net on 37′. 1–2. 1–2 · 17–26–57
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Estudiantes La Plata Res 1–2 Lanús Res.
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Estudiantes La Plata Res win: 51% at kick-off, 17% now
38′We said Estudiantes La Plata Res at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–2 · 16–26–58
39′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 16–26–58
45′We said Estudiantes La Plata Res at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–26–60
45′HALF-TIME Estudiantes La Plata Res 1–2 Lanús Res.
46′SECOND HALF Estudiantes La Plata Res 1–2 Lanús Res.
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Estudiantes La Plata Res win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
55′We said Estudiantes La Plata Res at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 2–2 · 36–44–21
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Estudiantes La Plata Res 2–2 Lanús Res.
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Estudiantes La Plata Res win: 51% at kick-off, 36% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Lanús Res. win 21%)
56′56′ and it is 3–2: Estudiantes La Plata Res have scored. 3–2 · 80–17–4
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Estudiantes La Plata Res 3–2 Lanús Res.
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Estudiantes La Plata Res win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Estudiantes La Plata Res win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
57′We said Estudiantes La Plata Res at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 3–2 · 80–16–4
58′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 80–16–4
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Estudiantes La Plata Res 4–2 Lanús Res.
60′Estudiantes La Plata Res find the net on 59′. 4–2. 4–2 · 97–3–0
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Estudiantes La Plata Res win: 51% at kick-off, 97% now
61′We said Estudiantes La Plata Res at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 4–2 · 97–3–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Estudiantes La Plata Res 4–3 Lanús Res.
62′A goal for Lanús Res. on 61′ — 4–3. 4–3 · 81–16–3
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Estudiantes La Plata Res win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
63′7 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 82–16–3
69′69′ and it is 4–4: Lanús Res. have scored. 4–4 · 26–57–16
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Estudiantes La Plata Res 4–4 Lanús Res.
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Estudiantes La Plata Res win: 51% at kick-off, 26% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Estudiantes La Plata Res win 26%)
70′GOAL DISALLOWED · 70' Lanús Res.
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Estudiantes La Plata Res win: 51% at kick-off, 84% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Estudiantes La Plata Res win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
71′We said Estudiantes La Plata Res at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 4–3 · 85–14–2
73′73′ and it is 4–4: Lanús Res. have scored. 4–4 · 23–63–14
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Estudiantes La Plata Res 4–4 Lanús Res.
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Estudiantes La Plata Res win: 51% at kick-off, 23% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Estudiantes La Plata Res win 23%)
75′We said Estudiantes La Plata Res at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 4–4 · 21–66–13
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Estudiantes La Plata Res win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
76′That is 8, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 4–4 · 20–68–12
77′We said Estudiantes La Plata Res at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 4–4 · 19–69–12
81′We said Estudiantes La Plata Res at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 4–4 · 14–77–9
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Estudiantes La Plata Res win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
85′We said Estudiantes La Plata Res at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 4–4 · 9–85–6
88′Lanús Res. are down to ten from 88′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 4–4 · 7–89–4
88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Lanús Res.
FTFULL TIME Estudiantes La Plata Res 4–4 Lanús Res.
FTEstudiantes La Plata Res 4–4 Lanús Res. · Estudiantes La Plata Res win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Estudiantes La Plata Res v Lanús Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off

Estudiantes La Plata Res win51%

Draw24%

Lanús Res. win25%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Estudiantes La Plata Res

Lanús Res.

8Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Lanús Res.	19	13	35
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	9	28

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · estudiantes la plata res winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off

51% The market40%

Us51%

~~Market~~40%

We make Estudiantes La Plata Res a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Estudiantes La Plata Res v Lanús Res.~~1.70 – 1.11

~~Last six in Reserve League~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 28 v 35~~12 v 6

~~The market · Estudiantes La Plata Res win~~40% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · estudiantes la plata res win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estudiantes La Plata Res win	51%	40%	+11
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Lanús Res. win	25%	32%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	53%	50%	+3
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	73%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	31%	29%	+2
Estudiantes La Plata Res or draw	75%	68%	+7
Estudiantes La Plata Res clean sheet	33%	–	–
Lanús Res. clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.3 6.6 3.8 1 10.1 11.4 6.2 2.3 2 8.6 9.5 5.2 3 4.9 5.4 3.0 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estudiantes La Plata Res down, Lanús Res. across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,651 Reserve League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 552 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Estudiantes La Plata Res at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lanús Res. away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Estudiantes La Plata Res, 1.11 for Lanús Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LAN 1–4 EST · EST 2–0 LAN · LAN 2–2 EST · LAN 1–0 EST

Form · last six in Reserve League

ESTUDIANTES LA PLATA RES

WWLLWD1–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

LANÚS RES.

WLDWWW3–1 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	20	29	47
2	Boca Juniors Res.	20	24	39
3	Racing Club Res.	21	7	39
4	River Plate Res.	21	9	37
5	Independiente Res.	19	19	36
6	Lanús Res.	19	13	35
7	Newell's Old Boys Res.	19	9	34
8	Quilmes 2	18	8	33
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	14	32
10	Atlético Tucumán Res.	19	-2	30
11	Unión Santa Fe Res.	18	4	29
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	9	28
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	6	28
14	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	18	-2	27
15	Talleres Córdoba Res.	18	6	26
16	Huracán Res.	18	6	26
17	Rosario Central Res.	18	3	26
18	Platense Res.	18	-3	26
19	Deportivo Riestra Res.	18	7	25
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	0	24
21	Instituto Res.	18	-1	24
22	San Lorenzo Res.	18	-2	24
23	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	18	2	23
24	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	18	-3	23
25	Banfield Res.	18	-4	23
26	Ferro 2	18	-3	22
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	18	-12	19
28	Colón Res.	18	-8	18
29	Aldosivi Res.	18	-11	18
30	Barracas Central Res.	18	-13	17
31	Sarmiento Res.	18	-10	16
32	Tigre Res.	18	-10	16
33	Godoy Cruz Res.	18	-10	15
34	Atl. Rafaela 2	18	-15	12
35	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	18	-23	11
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	18	-43	8