Colón Res. v San Martín San Juan Res. prediction · Reserve League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Colón Res.DrawSan Martín San Juan Res.

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Colón Res. 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Colón Res. are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Colón Res. 52%, draw 25%, San Martín San Juan Res. 23%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Colón Res. v San Martín San Juan Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Colón Res. win52%

Draw25%

San Martín San Juan Res. win23%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Colón Res.

San Martín San Juan Res.

7Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	14	−11	13
33	Colón Res.	14	−11	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · colón res. winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Colón Res. a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Colón Res. v San Martín San Juan Res.~~1.60 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 15 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 13~~33 v 30

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colón Res. win	52%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
San Martín San Juan Res. win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Colón Res. or draw	77%	–	–
Colón Res. clean sheet	38%	–	–
San Martín San Juan Res. clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.1%

0123450 8.1 7.3 3.6 1 12.1 11.9 5.7 2 9.8 9.3 4.5 3 5.3 5.0 2.4 4 2.2 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colón Res. down, San Martín San Juan Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,682 Reserve League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 583 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colón Res. at home: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). San Martín San Juan Res. away: 1.50 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Colón Res., 0.97 for San Martín San Juan Res.. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–1 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 15 Sept

COLÓN RES.

LWLLLW0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 1–0

SAN MARTÍN SAN JUAN RES.

LLLLWL0–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 2–3

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	14	+20	33
2	Lanús Res.	14	+13	30
3	Deportivo Riestra Res.	14	+11	26
4	Estudiantes La Plata Res	14	+10	25
5	Boca Juniors Res.	14	+8	25
6	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	14	+1	25
7	Vélez Sársfield Res.	14	+12	24
8	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	+5	24
9	Rosario Central Res.	14	+2	24
10	River Plate Res.	14	+9	23
11	Talleres Córdoba Res.	14	+5	23
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	14	+2	22
13	San Lorenzo Res.	14	+3	21
14	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	0	21
15	Huracán Res.	14	+2	20
16	Sarmiento Res.	14	+3	19
17	Godoy Cruz Res.	14	+2	19
18	Instituto Res.	14	0	19
19	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	+3	18
20	Unión Santa Fe Res.	14	+4	17
21	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	14	+3	17
22	Quilmes 2	14	−3	17
23	Atlético Tucumán Res.	14	−4	17
24	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	0	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	−3	15
26	Independiente Riva. Res.	14	−6	15
27	Tigre Res.	14	−6	15
28	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	−5	14
29	Racing Club Res.	14	−6	13
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	14	−11	13
31	Banfield Res.	14	−12	12
32	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	14	−12	12
33	Colón Res.	14	−11	11
34	Barracas Central Res.	14	−11	10
35	Platense Res.	14	−11	7
36	Ferro 2	14	−17	6