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Colón Res. v Independiente Riva. Res.

Colón Res.

1–4Full time

Independiente Riva. Res.

Reserve League · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 21:30

Colón Res. 1–4 Independiente Riva. Res. COLÓN RES. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Colón Res. win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.774

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Colón Res. win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Colón Res. was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
1′KICK-OFF Colón Res. v Independiente Riva. Res.
10′Independiente Riva. Res. find the net on 10′. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–58
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Colón Res. 0–1 Independiente Riva. Res.
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Colón Res. win: 43% at kick-off, 17% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Independiente Riva. Res. win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Colón Res. win 17%)
11′We said Colón Res. at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–24–59
24′We said Colón Res. at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Colón Res. win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–63
44′We said Colón Res. at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
45′HALF-TIME Colón Res. 0–1 Independiente Riva. Res.
46′SECOND HALF Colón Res. 0–1 Independiente Riva. Res.
60′🟥 RED CARD · 60' Independiente Riva. Res.
61′A red card for Independiente Riva. Res. on 60′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 5–21–74
63′We said Colón Res. at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Colón Res. win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
79′Colón Res. are down to ten from 79′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 1–12–87
79′🟥 RED CARD · 79' Colón Res.
84′A goal for Independiente Riva. Res. on 84′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Colón Res. 0–2 Independiente Riva. Res.
90′90′ and it is 0–3: Independiente Riva. Res. have scored. 0–3 · 0–0–100
90′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
90′Colón Res. find the net on 90′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Colón Res. 0–3 Independiente Riva. Res.
90′⚽ GOAL · 96' Colón Res. 1–3 Independiente Riva. Res.
90′⚽ GOAL · 98' Colón Res. 1–4 Independiente Riva. Res.
FTFULL TIME Colón Res. 1–4 Independiente Riva. Res.
FTColón Res. 1–4 Independiente Riva. Res. · Colón Res. win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Colón Res. v Independiente Riva. Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off

Colón Res. win43%

Draw28%

Independiente Riva. Res. win29%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Colón Res.

Independiente Riva. Res.

6Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	0	24
28	Colón Res.	18	-8	18

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · colón res. winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Colón Res. a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Colón Res. v Independiente Riva. Res.~~1.28 – 0.99

~~Last six in Reserve League~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 24~~28 v 20

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colón Res. win	43%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Independiente Riva. Res. win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Colón Res. or draw	71%	–	–
Colón Res. clean sheet	37%	–	–
Independiente Riva. Res. clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.7 10.1 5.1 1 13.1 13.1 6.4 2.1 2 8.4 8.2 4.1 3 3.6 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colón Res. down, Independiente Riva. Res. across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,651 Reserve League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 552 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colón Res. at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Independiente Riva. Res. away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Colón Res., 0.99 for Independiente Riva. Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~IND 1–2 COL · IND 3–0 COL

Form · last six in Reserve League

COLÓN RES.

LLLWLL1–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

INDEPENDIENTE RIVA. RES.

LWDLDL0–4 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	20	29	47
2	Boca Juniors Res.	20	24	39
3	Racing Club Res.	21	7	39
4	River Plate Res.	21	9	37
5	Independiente Res.	19	19	36
6	Lanús Res.	19	13	35
7	Newell's Old Boys Res.	19	9	34
8	Quilmes 2	18	8	33
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	14	32
10	Atlético Tucumán Res.	19	-2	30
11	Unión Santa Fe Res.	18	4	29
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	9	28
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	6	28
14	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	18	-2	27
15	Talleres Córdoba Res.	18	6	26
16	Huracán Res.	18	6	26
17	Rosario Central Res.	18	3	26
18	Platense Res.	18	-3	26
19	Deportivo Riestra Res.	18	7	25
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	0	24
21	Instituto Res.	18	-1	24
22	San Lorenzo Res.	18	-2	24
23	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	18	2	23
24	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	18	-3	23
25	Banfield Res.	18	-4	23
26	Ferro 2	18	-3	22
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	18	-12	19
28	Colón Res.	18	-8	18
29	Aldosivi Res.	18	-11	18
30	Barracas Central Res.	18	-13	17
31	Sarmiento Res.	18	-10	16
32	Tigre Res.	18	-10	16
33	Godoy Cruz Res.	18	-10	15
34	Atl. Rafaela 2	18	-15	12
35	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	18	-23	11
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	18	-43	8