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Central Córdoba SdE Res. v Belgrano Córdoba Res.

Central Córdoba SdE Res.

1–2Full time

Belgrano Córdoba Res.

Reserve League · THU 15 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 01:30

Central Córdoba SdE Res. 1–2 Belgrano Córdoba Res. BELGRANO CÓRDOBA RES. WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Belgrano Córdoba Res. win~~48%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.403

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.442

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Belgrano Córdoba Res. win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Belgrano Córdoba Res. 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 27–25–48
1′KICK-OFF Central Córdoba SdE Res. v Belgrano Córdoba Res.
24′Central Córdoba SdE Res. score on 23′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 56–25–19
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Central Córdoba SdE Res. 1–0 Belgrano Córdoba Res.
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Belgrano Córdoba Res. win: 48% at kick-off, 19% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Central Córdoba SdE Res. win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Belgrano Córdoba Res. win 19%)
25′We said Belgrano Córdoba Res. at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 56–25–19
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Belgrano Córdoba Res. win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 57–25–17
40′We said Belgrano Córdoba Res. at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–25–14
45′HALF-TIME Central Córdoba SdE Res. 1–0 Belgrano Córdoba Res.
46′SECOND HALF Central Córdoba SdE Res. 1–0 Belgrano Córdoba Res.
55′We said Belgrano Córdoba Res. at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9
57′Belgrano Córdoba Res. find the net on 57′. 1–1. 1–1 · 21–46–33
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Central Córdoba SdE Res. 1–1 Belgrano Córdoba Res.
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Belgrano Córdoba Res. win: 48% at kick-off, 33% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Central Córdoba SdE Res. win 21%)
58′We said Belgrano Córdoba Res. at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 21–47–32
63′We said Belgrano Córdoba Res. at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 19–51–29
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Belgrano Córdoba Res. win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
70′We said Belgrano Córdoba Res. at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 16–59–24
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Belgrano Córdoba Res. win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Belgrano Córdoba Res. win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
87′A goal for Belgrano Córdoba Res. on 86′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Central Córdoba SdE Res. 1–2 Belgrano Córdoba Res.
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Belgrano Córdoba Res. win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Belgrano Córdoba Res. win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
88′We said Belgrano Córdoba Res. at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
88′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–5–95
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Belgrano Córdoba Res. win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
96′Central Córdoba SdE Res. are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 0–1–99
96′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Central Córdoba SdE Res.
FTFULL TIME Central Córdoba SdE Res. 1–2 Belgrano Córdoba Res.
FTCentral Córdoba SdE Res. 1–2 Belgrano Córdoba Res. · Belgrano Córdoba Res. win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Belgrano Córdoba Res. are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Central Córdoba SdE Res. 27%, draw 25%, Belgrano Córdoba Res. 48%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Central Córdoba SdE Res. v Belgrano Córdoba Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Central Córdoba SdE Res. win27%

Draw25%

Belgrano Córdoba Res. win48%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Central Córdoba SdE Res.

Belgrano Córdoba Res.

7Days since last match7

Last match: 8 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	12	+2	22
31	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	12	−9	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · belgrano córdoba res. winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

48% The market46%

Us48%

~~Market~~46%

We make Belgrano Córdoba Res. a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Central Córdoba SdE Res. v Belgrano Córdoba Res.~~1.14 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 1 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 22~~31 v 9

~~The market · Belgrano Córdoba Res. win~~46% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Belgrano Córdoba Res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Central Córdoba SdE Res. win	27%	26%	+1
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Belgrano Córdoba Res. win	48%	46%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	46%	+6
Both teams to score	54%	50%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	70%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	30%	26%	+4
Central Córdoba SdE Res. or draw	52%	54%	−2
Central Córdoba SdE Res. clean sheet	20%	–	–
Belgrano Córdoba Res. clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.6 10.1 8.2 4.5 1 7.2 11.7 9.2 5.0 2.1 2 4.2 6.6 5.3 2.9 3 2.6 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Central Córdoba SdE Res. down, Belgrano Córdoba Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,657 Reserve League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.8% of games this season, across 558 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Central Córdoba SdE Res. at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Belgrano Córdoba Res. away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Central Córdoba SdE Res., 1.62 for Belgrano Córdoba Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~BEL 1–0 CEN · BEL 1–0 CEN · CEN 1–1 BEL · CEN 0–0 BEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 1 Sept

CENTRAL CÓRDOBA SDE RES.

LLWLDL1–5 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–3

BELGRANO CÓRDOBA RES.

LWWDDW1–3 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 3–2

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	13	+19	30
2	Lanús Res.	13	+10	27
3	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	13	+6	24
4	Vélez Sársfield Res.	13	+12	23
5	Deportivo Riestra Res.	13	+9	23
6	River Plate Res.	13	+9	22
7	Estudiantes La Plata Res	13	+8	22
8	Boca Juniors Res.	12	+8	22
9	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	12	+2	22
10	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	13	+2	21
11	Rosario Central Res.	13	+1	21
12	Atl. Rafaela 2	13	0	20
13	Sarmiento Res.	13	+3	18
14	Godoy Cruz Res.	13	+2	18
15	San Lorenzo Res.	13	+2	18
16	Instituto Res.	13	0	18
17	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	13	+4	17
18	Huracán Res.	13	+1	17
19	Talleres Córdoba Res.	12	+1	17
20	Quilmes 2	13	0	17
21	Unión Santa Fe Res.	12	+7	16
22	Atlético Tucumán Res.	13	−4	16
23	Newell's Old Boys Res.	13	+2	15
24	Defensa y Justicia Res.	13	0	15
25	Argentinos Juniors Res.	13	−4	14
26	Tigre Res.	13	−6	14
27	Racing Club Res.	13	−5	13
28	San Martín San Juan Res.	13	−10	13
29	Aldosivi Res.	13	−4	12
30	Independiente Riva. Res.	13	−7	12
31	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	12	−9	12
32	Banfield Res.	13	−11	12
33	Barracas Central Res.	13	−11	9
34	Colón Res.	13	−12	8
35	Platense Res.	13	−10	7
36	Ferro 2	12	−15	6