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Boca Juniors Res. v Ferro 2

Boca Juniors Res.
1–0Full time
Ferro 2

Reserve League · THU 15 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 01:30
Boca Juniors Res. 1–0 Ferro 2 BOCA JUNIORS RES. WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Boca Juniors Res. win73%
The market said66%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.114
The market’s Brier score0.176

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Boca Juniors Res. win at 73%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Boca Juniors Res. was 73% before kick-off and our model makes it 73% now. 0–0 · 73–18–8
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Boca Juniors Res. v Ferro 2
  4. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Boca Juniors Res. win: 73% at kick-off, 63% now
  5. 34′We said Boca Juniors Res. at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 61%. 0–0 · 61–29–9
  6. 38′We said Boca Juniors Res. at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–31–10
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Boca Juniors Res. 0–0 Ferro 2
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Boca Juniors Res. 0–0 Ferro 2
  9. 47′We said Boca Juniors Res. at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–37–9
  10. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Boca Juniors Res. win: 73% at kick-off, 53% now
  11. 51′A goal for Boca Juniors Res. on 51′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 91–8–1
  12. 51′We published Boca Juniors Res. at 73%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–8–1
  13. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Boca Juniors Res. 1–0 Ferro 2
  14. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Boca Juniors Res. win: 73% at kick-off, 91% now
  15. 58′🟥 RED CARD · 58' Ferro 2
  16. 59′A red card for Ferro 2 on 58′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 91–8–1
  17. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Boca Juniors Res. win: 73% at kick-off, 93% now
  18. 78′We published Boca Juniors Res. at 73%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  19. FTFULL TIME Boca Juniors Res. 1–0 Ferro 2
  20. FTBoca Juniors Res. 1–0 Ferro 2 · Boca Juniors Res. win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Boca Juniors Res. are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Boca Juniors Res. 73%, draw 19%, Ferro 2 8%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Boca Juniors Res. v Ferro 2Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Boca Juniors Res. win73%
Draw19%
Ferro 2 win8%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Boca Juniors Res.

Ferro 2

7Days since last match8

Last match: 8 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

Last match: 7 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Clausura

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Boca Juniors Res.12+822
36Ferro 212−156

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · boca juniors res. winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off
73% The market66%
Us73%
Market66%

We make Boca Juniors Res. a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Boca Juniors Res. v Ferro 22.07 – 0.53
Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 2 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W0 D2 L4
Table places · points 22 v 68 v 36
The market · Boca Juniors Res. win66% · ours 73%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75%80% 9 OCT 07:1815 OCT 22:33
Our probability · Boca Juniors Res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Boca Juniors Res. win73%66%+7
Draw19%21%−2
Ferro 2 win8%13%−5
Over 2.5 goals48%54%−6
Both teams to score36%48%−12
Over 1.5 goals73%75%−2
Over 3.5 goals27%33%−6
Boca Juniors Res. or draw92%87%+5
Boca Juniors Res. clean sheet59%––
Ferro 2 clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 15.6%
0123450 7.7 4.0 1 15.3 8.2 2.2 2 15.6 8.3 2.2 3 10.8 5.7 4 5.7 3.0 5 2.4
under 2% 5% 12%+Boca Juniors Res. down, Ferro 2 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025
Goals a meeting0.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsFER 0–0 BOC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 2 Sept

BOCA JUNIORS RES.

WWDDLW1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

FERRO 2

LLDLLD0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Clausura
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Independiente Res.13+1930
2Lanús Res.13+1027
3Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 213+624
4Vélez Sársfield Res.13+1223
5Deportivo Riestra Res.13+923
6River Plate Res.13+922
7Estudiantes La Plata Res13+822
8Boca Juniors Res.12+822
9Belgrano Córdoba Res.12+222
10Gimnasia Mendoza 213+221
11Rosario Central Res.13+121
12Atl. Rafaela 213020
13Sarmiento Res.13+318
14Godoy Cruz Res.13+218
15San Lorenzo Res.13+218
16Instituto Res.13018
17Gimnasia La Plata Res.13+417
18Huracán Res.13+117
19Talleres Córdoba Res.12+117
20Quilmes 213017
21Unión Santa Fe Res.12+716
22Atlético Tucumán Res.13−416
23Newell's Old Boys Res.13+215
24Defensa y Justicia Res.13015
25Argentinos Juniors Res.13−414
26Tigre Res.13−614
27Racing Club Res.13−513
28San Martín San Juan Res.13−1013
29Aldosivi Res.13−412
30Independiente Riva. Res.13−712
31Central Córdoba SdE Res.12−912
32Banfield Res.13−1112
33Barracas Central Res.13−119
34Colón Res.13−128
35Platense Res.13−107
36Ferro 212−156

The competition's standings before kick-off.