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Boca Juniors Res. v Ferro 2
Boca Juniors Res.
Ferro 2Reserve League · THU 15 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Boca Juniors Res. win at 73%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Boca Juniors Res. was 73% before kick-off and our model makes it 73% now. 0–0 · 73–18–8
- 1′KICK-OFF Boca Juniors Res. v Ferro 2
- 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Boca Juniors Res. win: 73% at kick-off, 63% now
- 34′We said Boca Juniors Res. at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 61%. 0–0 · 61–29–9
- 38′We said Boca Juniors Res. at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–31–10
- 45′HALF-TIME Boca Juniors Res. 0–0 Ferro 2
- 46′SECOND HALF Boca Juniors Res. 0–0 Ferro 2
- 47′We said Boca Juniors Res. at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–37–9
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Boca Juniors Res. win: 73% at kick-off, 53% now
- 51′A goal for Boca Juniors Res. on 51′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 91–8–1
- 51′We published Boca Juniors Res. at 73%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–8–1
- 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Boca Juniors Res. 1–0 Ferro 2
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Boca Juniors Res. win: 73% at kick-off, 91% now
- 58′🟥 RED CARD · 58' Ferro 2
- 59′A red card for Ferro 2 on 58′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 91–8–1
- 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Boca Juniors Res. win: 73% at kick-off, 93% now
- 78′We published Boca Juniors Res. at 73%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- FTFULL TIME Boca Juniors Res. 1–0 Ferro 2
- FTBoca Juniors Res. 1–0 Ferro 2 · Boca Juniors Res. win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassBoca Juniors Res. are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Boca Juniors Res. 73%, draw 19%, Ferro 2 8%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 36%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off
Boca Juniors Res. win73%
Ferro 2 win8%Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 23:00
RoundClausura · matchday 13
Match timeline
All events
Boca Juniors Res.MIN
Ferro 2Events will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Boca Juniors Res.
Ferro 2
Last match: 8 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League
Last match: 7 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Boca Juniors Res. a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.5.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors Res. win | 73% | 66% | +7 |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | −2 |
| Ferro 2 win | 8% | 13% | −5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 54% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 36% | 48% | −12 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 33% | −6 |
| Boca Juniors Res. or draw | 92% | 87% | +5 |
| Boca Juniors Res. clean sheet | 59% | – | – |
| Ferro 2 clean sheet | 13% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2025Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 2 Sept
BOCA JUNIORS RES.
FERRO 2
The table
2026 · Clausura| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Res. | 13 | +19 | 30 |
| 2 | Lanús Res. | 13 | +10 | 27 |
| 3 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 13 | +6 | 24 |
| 4 | Vélez Sársfield Res. | 13 | +12 | 23 |
| 5 | Deportivo Riestra Res. | 13 | +9 | 23 |
| 6 | River Plate Res. | 13 | +9 | 22 |
| 7 | Estudiantes La Plata Res | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 8 | Boca Juniors Res. | 12 | +8 | 22 |
| 9 | Belgrano Córdoba Res. | 12 | +2 | 22 |
| 10 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 13 | +2 | 21 |
| 11 | Rosario Central Res. | 13 | +1 | 21 |
| 12 | Atl. Rafaela 2 | 13 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 | Sarmiento Res. | 13 | +3 | 18 |
| 14 | Godoy Cruz Res. | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 15 | San Lorenzo Res. | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 16 | Instituto Res. | 13 | 0 | 18 |
| 17 | Gimnasia La Plata Res. | 13 | +4 | 17 |
| 18 | Huracán Res. | 13 | +1 | 17 |
| 19 | Talleres Córdoba Res. | 12 | +1 | 17 |
| 20 | Quilmes 2 | 13 | 0 | 17 |
| 21 | Unión Santa Fe Res. | 12 | +7 | 16 |
| 22 | Atlético Tucumán Res. | 13 | −4 | 16 |
| 23 | Newell's Old Boys Res. | 13 | +2 | 15 |
| 24 | Defensa y Justicia Res. | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| 25 | Argentinos Juniors Res. | 13 | −4 | 14 |
| 26 | Tigre Res. | 13 | −6 | 14 |
| 27 | Racing Club Res. | 13 | −5 | 13 |
| 28 | San Martín San Juan Res. | 13 | −10 | 13 |
| 29 | Aldosivi Res. | 13 | −4 | 12 |
| 30 | Independiente Riva. Res. | 13 | −7 | 12 |
| 31 | Central Córdoba SdE Res. | 12 | −9 | 12 |
| 32 | Banfield Res. | 13 | −11 | 12 |
| 33 | Barracas Central Res. | 13 | −11 | 9 |
| 34 | Colón Res. | 13 | −12 | 8 |
| 35 | Platense Res. | 13 | −10 | 7 |
| 36 | Ferro 2 | 12 | −15 | 6 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Independiente Res.
Lanús Res.
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2
Vélez Sársfield Res.
Deportivo Riestra Res.
River Plate Res.
Estudiantes La Plata Res
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
Rosario Central Res.
Atl. Rafaela 2
Sarmiento Res.
Godoy Cruz Res.
San Lorenzo Res.
Instituto Res.
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
Huracán Res.
Talleres Córdoba Res.
Quilmes 2
Unión Santa Fe Res.
Atlético Tucumán Res.
Newell's Old Boys Res.
Defensa y Justicia Res.
Argentinos Juniors Res.
Tigre Res.
Racing Club Res.
San Martín San Juan Res.
Aldosivi Res.
Independiente Riva. Res.
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
Banfield Res.
Barracas Central Res.
Colón Res.
Platense Res.