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Barracas Central Res. v Atlético Tucumán Res.

Barracas Central Res.

1–1Full time

Atlético Tucumán Res.

Reserve League · THU 15 OCT

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 21:30

Barracas Central Res. 1–1 Atlético Tucumán Res. ATLÉTICO TUCUMÁN RES. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Atlético Tucumán Res. win~~38%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.766

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.750

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético Tucumán Res. win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atlético Tucumán Res. 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
1′KICK-OFF Barracas Central Res. v Atlético Tucumán Res.
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Atlético Tucumán Res. win 33%)
41′Atlético Tucumán Res. find the net on 40′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–21–72
41′We said Atlético Tucumán Res. at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–1 · 7–21–72
41′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 7–21–72
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Barracas Central Res. 0–1 Atlético Tucumán Res.
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Atlético Tucumán Res. win: 38% at kick-off, 72% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Atlético Tucumán Res. win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
45′Barracas Central Res. are down to ten from 44′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 6–20–73
45′🟥 RED CARD · 44' Barracas Central Res.
45′HALF-TIME Barracas Central Res. 0–1 Atlético Tucumán Res.
46′SECOND HALF Barracas Central Res. 0–1 Atlético Tucumán Res.
50′We said Atlético Tucumán Res. at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Atlético Tucumán Res. win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
64′We said Atlético Tucumán Res. at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
73′We said Atlético Tucumán Res. at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 1–14–85
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Atlético Tucumán Res. win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
80′We said Atlético Tucumán Res. at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
86′We said Atlético Tucumán Res. at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Atlético Tucumán Res.
91′Barracas Central Res. have ten men and Atlético Tucumán Res. ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 0–3–97
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Atlético Tucumán Res. win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
94′A goal for Barracas Central Res. on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 1–98–1
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Barracas Central Res. 1–1 Atlético Tucumán Res.
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Atlético Tucumán Res. win: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Atlético Tucumán Res. win 1%)
95′We said Atlético Tucumán Res. at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–1 · 1–98–1
FTFULL TIME Barracas Central Res. 1–1 Atlético Tucumán Res.
FTBarracas Central Res. 1–1 Atlético Tucumán Res. · Atlético Tucumán Res. win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlético Tucumán Res. are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barracas Central Res. 33%, draw 29%, Atlético Tucumán Res. 38%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Barracas Central Res. v Atlético Tucumán Res.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Barracas Central Res. win33%

Draw29%

Atlético Tucumán Res. win38%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barracas Central Res.

Atlético Tucumán Res.

7Days since last match7

Last match: 8 Oct · the Argentine Reserve League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
24	Atlético Tucumán Res.	12	−4	15
33	Barracas Central Res.	12	−11	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético tucumán res. winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

38% The market33%

Us38%

~~Market~~33%

We make Atlético Tucumán Res. a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barracas Central Res. v Atlético Tucumán Res.~~1.09 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 2 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 15~~33 v 24

~~The market · Atlético Tucumán Res. win~~33% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atlético Tucumán Res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barracas Central Res. win	33%	38%	−5
Draw	29%	29%	0
Atlético Tucumán Res. win	38%	33%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	40%	44%	−4
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	68%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
Barracas Central Res. or draw	62%	67%	−5
Barracas Central Res. clean sheet	30%	–	–
Atlético Tucumán Res. clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.5 12.1 7.3 3.0 1 10.9 13.2 7.8 3.2 2 6.0 7.1 4.2 3 2.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barracas Central Res. down, Atlético Tucumán Res. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,657 Reserve League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.8% of games this season, across 558 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barracas Central Res. at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Tucumán Res. away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Barracas Central Res., 1.20 for Atlético Tucumán Res.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ATL 3–2 BAR · ATL 1–0 BAR · BAR 0–1 ATL · BAR 1–2 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Reserve League this season · since 2 Sept

BARRACAS CENTRAL RES.

LLWLDD0–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–0

ATLÉTICO TUCUMÁN RES.

WLLWDW2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente Res.	13	+19	30
2	Lanús Res.	13	+10	27
3	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	13	+6	24
4	Deportivo Riestra Res.	13	+9	23
5	River Plate Res.	13	+9	22
6	Estudiantes La Plata Res	13	+8	22
7	Boca Juniors Res.	12	+8	22
8	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	12	+2	22
9	Rosario Central Res.	13	+1	21
10	Vélez Sársfield Res.	12	+8	20
11	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	12	+2	20
12	Atl. Rafaela 2	13	0	20
13	Instituto Res.	13	0	18
14	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	13	+4	17
15	Sarmiento Res.	12	+3	17
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	12	+2	17
17	San Lorenzo Res.	12	+2	17
18	Huracán Res.	13	+1	17
19	Talleres Córdoba Res.	12	+1	17
20	Quilmes 2	13	0	17
21	Unión Santa Fe Res.	12	+7	16
22	Newell's Old Boys Res.	13	+2	15
23	Defensa y Justicia Res.	13	0	15
24	Atlético Tucumán Res.	12	−4	15
25	Argentinos Juniors Res.	13	−4	14
26	Tigre Res.	13	−6	14
27	Racing Club Res.	12	−1	13
28	San Martín San Juan Res.	13	−10	13
29	Aldosivi Res.	13	−4	12
30	Independiente Riva. Res.	13	−7	12
31	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	12	−9	12
32	Banfield Res.	13	−11	12
33	Barracas Central Res.	12	−11	8
34	Colón Res.	13	−12	8
35	Platense Res.	13	−10	7
36	Ferro 2	12	−15	6