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Banfield Res. v Gimnasia La Plata Res.

Banfield Res.

1–0Full time

Gimnasia La Plata Res.

Reserve League · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 21:37

Banfield Res. 1–0 Gimnasia La Plata Res. GIMNASIA LA PLATA RES. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gimnasia La Plata Res. win~~39%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.720

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.705

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gimnasia La Plata Res. win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Banfield Res. v Gimnasia La Plata Res.
2′Much as we predicted: Gimnasia La Plata Res. was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 31–30–39
5′4′ and it is 1–0: Banfield Res. have scored. 1–0 · 61–23–16
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Banfield Res. 1–0 Gimnasia La Plata Res.
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Gimnasia La Plata Res. win: 39% at kick-off, 16% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Banfield Res. win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Gimnasia La Plata Res. win 16%)
6′We said Gimnasia La Plata Res. at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 61–23–15
11′We said Gimnasia La Plata Res. at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 66–24–11
36′We said Gimnasia La Plata Res. at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Gimnasia La Plata Res. win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
45′HALF-TIME Banfield Res. 1–0 Gimnasia La Plata Res.
46′SECOND HALF Banfield Res. 1–0 Gimnasia La Plata Res.
59′We said Gimnasia La Plata Res. at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–20–4
FTFULL TIME Banfield Res. 1–0 Gimnasia La Plata Res.
FTBanfield Res. 1–0 Gimnasia La Plata Res. · Gimnasia La Plata Res. win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

Banfield Res. win31%

Draw30%

Gimnasia La Plata Res. win39%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Banfield Res.

Gimnasia La Plata Res.

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
20	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	30	+7	40
28	Banfield Res.	30	−16	32

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gimnasia la plata res. winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Gimnasia La Plata Res. a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gimnasia la plata res. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Banfield Res. win	31%	32%	−1
Draw	30%	30%	0
Gimnasia La Plata Res. win	39%	38%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	36%	42%	−6
Both teams to score	42%	49%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	62%	66%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	17%	22%	−5
Banfield Res. or draw	61%	62%	−1
Banfield Res. clean sheet	32%	–	–
Gimnasia La Plata Res. clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%

0123450 12.4 13.6 7.8 3.0 1 11.6 13.4 7.5 2.9 2 5.8 6.5 3.7 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Banfield Res. down, Gimnasia La Plata Res. across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,646 Reserve League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Reserve League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 547 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 1.57 goals a meeting; 1 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Banfield Res. at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gimnasia La Plata Res. away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Banfield Res., 1.14 for Gimnasia La Plata Res.. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.57

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 7

~~Both scored~~1 of 7

~~Last meetings~~GIM 2–0 BAN · BAN 0–1 GIM · GIM 0–0 BAN · GIM 0–0 BAN

Form · last six in Reserve League

BANFIELD RES.

WLLLDL2–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–5

GIMNASIA LA PLATA RES.

LDWWLD0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	32	+37	66
2	Independiente Res.	31	+35	63
3	Boca Juniors Res.	32	+33	62
4	Lanús Res.	31	+23	61
5	River Plate Res.	33	+18	57
6	Racing Club Res.	33	+5	50
7	Estudiantes La Plata Res	30	+17	49
8	Newell's Old Boys Res.	31	+12	49
9	Quilmes 2	30	+8	49
10	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	30	0	49
11	Deportivo Riestra Res.	30	+18	48
12	Rosario Central Res.	30	+4	46
13	Unión Santa Fe Res.	30	+11	45
14	Atlético Tucumán Res.	31	−6	45
15	Defensa y Justicia Res.	30	+13	44
16	Huracán Res.	30	+10	43
17	Talleres Córdoba Res.	30	+7	43
18	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	30	−1	43
19	San Lorenzo Res.	30	0	41
20	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	30	+7	40
21	Argentinos Juniors Res.	30	+1	39
22	Instituto Res.	30	−2	39
23	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	30	−17	34
24	Sarmiento Res.	30	−7	33
25	Independiente Riva. Res.	30	−10	33
26	Platense Res.	30	−12	33
27	Godoy Cruz Res.	30	−8	32
28	Banfield Res.	30	−16	32
29	Atl. Rafaela 2	30	−15	31
30	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	30	−21	31
31	Tigre Res.	30	−15	30
32	Aldosivi Res.	30	−15	29
33	Ferro 2	30	−18	28
34	Colón Res.	30	−17	26
35	Barracas Central Res.	30	−24	25
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	30	−55	18